Winter 2017-18 Disco

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

I remember it very favorably just for the Clipper that Could. Really fun day. Honestly I don't remember that much else.

 

I remember that knocking about power for about 6 hours (No seriously). It especially sucked since I had plenty of school work to do

[gymengineer]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

I remember it very favorably just for the Clipper that Could. Really fun day. Honestly I don't remember that much else.

 

Most were understandably bummed that Boston got a great blizzard late in the month while we were fighting for the tiniest of scraps once it became clear we were not in the running. In the end, the scraps overperformed in Montgomery County, giving another solid snowcover. There was another 2”ish gloppy daytime clipper in between these two main January events.

[mitchnick]

Come to think about it,  02/03 & 09/10 are overrated too. 

Some of you weenies need a time out! I'd take 14/15 & 15/16 in a heartbeat. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Come to think about it,  02/03 & 09/10 are overrated too. 

Some of you weenies need a time out! I'd take 14/15 & 15/16 in a heartbeat. 

We all have our own rating system. We get mutiple years every decade that are virtually snowless and mild door to door. Those two years were condensed and had lots of wasted space. Especially 15/16. But I measured more than 30" both years. If a 30" season is awful then how do you describe 11/12 or 12/13 or 16/17? 

Wnwxluvr can definitely say 12/13 was better than 15/16 but a couple million weenies within a 90 minute drive of his house have a different opinion.  

[WVclimo]

Channel 5 in DC released a winter forecast: http://www.fox5dc.com/weather/2017-18-winter-outlook-for-dc-colder-more-snow-than-last-year

 

[gymengineer]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

The Panic Room was born after three straight catastrophes here while New England rocked if I remember correctly. It broke me. I haven’t looked at winter the same since...

Well, since you lived in New England, it makes sense to that you compare our weather to New England weather.  Even in the good winters, it'll drive a lifer down here crazy to compare to New England. For example, we patiently waited through missing out on the big Boston snowstorms-- 12/18/95 and 1/2/96-- in the 95/96 winter until we got in on the feast with the 1/96 blizzard. And then not getting a March 12"+ storm like Boston didn't make me enjoy that winter any less. 

I *do* get jealous when Philly cashes in repeatedly as we miss out. 

[PCT_ATC]

32 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Well, since you lived in New England, it makes sense to that you compare our weather to New England weather.  Even in the good winters, it'll drive a lifer down here crazy to compare to New England. For example, we patiently waited through missing out on the big Boston snowstorms-- 12/18/95 and 1/2/96-- in the 95/96 winter until we got in on the feast with the 1/96 blizzard. And then not getting a March 12"+ storm like Boston didn't make me enjoy that winter any less. 

I *do* get jealous when Philly cashes in repeatedly as we miss out. 

bugs me even more when ORF jackpots and we get squat.

[uncle W]

looking at the 130 year record for DCA snowfall there was,

# times snowfall was...

00.0-04.9.....15

05.0-09.9.....21

10.0-14.9.....25

15.0-19.9.....19

20.0-24.9.....19

25.0-29.9.......8

30.0-34.9.......7

35.0-39.9.......7

40.0-44.9.......6

45.0-49.9.......1

50.0-54.9.......1

55.0-59.9.......1

61 of 130 were under 15"...

38 of 130 were between 15" and 25"...

15 of 130 were between 25" and 35"...

16 were over 35"...

80 of 130 were under 20"...

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Channel 5 in DC released a winter forecast: http://www.fox5dc.com/weather/2017-18-winter-outlook-for-dc-colder-more-snow-than-last-year

Looks pretty good to me honestly. This is a year with no long lead personality. I expect safe calls from pretty much everyone as we move forward. Me thinks we're going to see a lot of below normal snow and above normal temp calls. 

[Sparky]

3 hours ago, WVclimo said:

Channel 5 in DC released a winter forecast: http://www.fox5dc.com/weather/2017-18-winter-outlook-for-dc-colder-more-snow-than-last-year

 

That would mean another crappy winter for Carroll County.  I average 35" annually.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Yup... retrograding pattern on models. Nothing special about this cold time, as it relates to the Winter. Short MJO correlated cycle

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Sparky said:

That would mean another crappy winter for Carroll County.  I average 35" annually.

We have an even lower chance of getting close to normal during a Nina then DC. That's because our average is harder to attain with just 1-2 fluke events. Given the pattern being in the 24-35" range on that map I would buy. It could and may be a lot worse. I would be happy with 60-70% of normal this year, especially if it came in a good way. Not a bunch of 3" events that melt right away. 

[Sparky]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We have an even lower chance of getting close to normal during a Nina then DC. That's because our average is harder to attain with just 1-2 fluke events. Given the pattern being in the 24-35" range on that map I would buy. It could and may be a lot worse. I would be happy with 60-70% of normal this year, especially if it came in a good way. Not a bunch of 3" events that melt right away. 

I hear what you are saying but 60-70% of normal after last winter just won't cut it.

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Sparky said:

I hear what you are saying but 60-70% of normal after last winter just won't cut it.

I understand, really I do, but reality sets in when I look at the data. We obviously don't know exactly how all the drivers and patterns will end up but we know enough to get a sample or range of possible outcomes.  Looking at all the years even remotely similar to the current (endo and PDO)pattern only 3/22 were above avg snowfall in Carroll county. Another few were close to average. The vast majority were below 80% avg snowfall. To make matters worse several of the outliers were in the 1960s which I'm not sure is a good analog period to use given its unique snowfall outcomes. So if we remove those outliers we're left with a range of god awful years, some even worse then last year for our location, and years where we at least eeked our way above 50% climo. So I don't feel like setting myself up to be miserable by expecting one of those very rare unicorn outlier solutions and simply hope we get a more acceptable 60-80% of climo year versus the years we ended up worse then that. Of course we can still hope that something like 1967 or 1996 happens but I'm not going to expect it. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I understand, really I do, but reality sets in when I look at the data. We obviously don't know exactly how all the drivers and patterns will end up but we know enough to get a sample or range of possible outcomes.  Looking at all the years even remotely similar to the current (endo and PDO)pattern only 3/22 were above avg snowfall in Carroll county. Another few were close to average. The vast majority were below 80% avg snowfall. To make matters worse several of the outliers were in the 1960s which I'm not sure is a good analog period to use given its unique snowfall outcomes. So if we remove those outliers we're left with a range of god awful years, some even worse then last year for our location, and years where we at least eeked our way above 50% climo. So I don't feel like setting myself up to be miserable by expecting one of those very rare unicorn outlier solutions and simply hope we get a more acceptable 60-80% of climo year versus the years we ended up worse then that. Of course we can still hope that something like 1967 or 1996 happens but I'm not going to expect it. 

You and I think alike. I challenge anyone to find a compelling argument for a good winter. Believe me, if I thought there was one I would have been all over it many times. This still doesn't mean we can do well of course. 13-14 and even 14-15 "should" have been crappy but they weren't. 

Seasonal guidance has a fairly quick Nina fade starting in January. That's a bit of a wildcard. If Nina forcing loses it's muscle then what takes over? No way to answer that now but IF nina forcing fades during met winter then unexpected things could happen. 

I'm not a fan of the EPS right now in the high latitudes. D10-15 is pretty much a building +AO/NAO. Lots of LP around areas where we want HP. Too far out to worry about much but we definitely aren't seeing signs of an early -AO/NAO building. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You and I think alike. I challenge anyone to find a compelling argument for a good winter. Believe me, if I thought there was one I would have been all over it many times. This still doesn't mean we can do well of course. 13-14 and even 14-15 "should" have been crappy but they weren't. 

Seasonal guidance has a fairly quick Nina fade starting in January. That's a bit of a wildcard. If Nina forcing loses it's muscle then what takes over? No way to answer that now but IF nina forcing fades during met winter then unexpected things could happen. 

I'm not a fan of the EPS right now in the high latitudes. D10-15 is pretty much a building +AO/NAO. Lots of LP around areas where we want HP. Too far out to worry about much but we definitely aren't seeing signs of an early -AO/NAO building. 

I have been following the thread and I am in 100% agreement with where you are.  I have not added much lately because I said my peace a month ago and nothing has changed my mind.  There has been some "chatter" out there about QBO/Solar and links to snowfall, but when I examined that I found the correlation is non existent when looking at Nina years.  There does seem to be some correlation in other conditions but there is no increased chance of a snowy winter because of the qbo/solar combo in our current enso state.  I am not sure if those throwing that factor around, and some doing it are people I consider knowledgeable so I don't mean to disparage them, know that and are thinking enso won't be a factor this year or if they are just wishcasting because the thought of two crap years in a row is too much to take.  Whatever... I am not saying "its not going to snow".  Just like I would never guarantee a good winter in October either.  I am not arrogant enough to think I can predict what's going to happen in the next 5 months when I still struggle with tomorrow sometimes.  But I don't see any compelling objective evidence driven argument to expect a snowy winter right now.  There is always the "hope for a weird outlier type fluke" thing or maybe the patter will change unexpectedly, but that's not a good basis for a forecast. 

Your point about a possible wild card later is valid.  If things break down and shift quickly mid season then who knows...  and I will track everything like I do every year to the bitter end.  But again, "maybe things change" is a reason for hope not a reason to expect a good winter.  But I know expecting a bad winter a year after we had a bad winter is a tough pill to swallow for many so I am not going to fill up the thread calling people names and saying they should expect a bad winter.  I have set my expectations but everyone else can come to peace with the universe in their own way. 

[uncle W]

looking at past la nina and weak negative analogs you see the chances for a lousy winter are much greater than a good or great winter...so we start with less expectations...the ao has been positive the last few days but nothing to worry about...the nao has been negative the last few days but nothing spectacular ...the ao/nao forecasts continue fuzzy in the long run...one lonely spaghetti plot on the ao forecast dives to -4 while all the others are closer to neutral or slightly negative...a minus four would make a cold November more realistic and would make my expectations increase...

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have been following the thread and I am in 100% agreement with where you are.  I have not added much lately because I said my peace a month ago and nothing has changed my mind.  There has been some "chatter" out there about QBO/Solar and links to snowfall, but when I examined that I found the correlation is non existent when looking at Nina years.  There does seem to be some correlation in other conditions but there is no increased chance of a snowy winter because of the qbo/solar combo in our current enso state.  I am not sure if those throwing that factor around, and some doing it are people I consider knowledgeable so I don't mean to disparage them, know that and are thinking enso won't be a factor this year or if they are just wishcasting because the thought of two crap years in a row is too much to take.  Whatever... I am not saying "its not going to snow".  Just like I would never guarantee a good winter in October either.  I am not arrogant enough to think I can predict what's going to happen in the next 5 months when I still struggle with tomorrow sometimes.  But I don't see any compelling objective evidence driven argument to expect a snowy winter right now.  There is always the "hope for a weird outlier type fluke" thing or maybe the patter will change unexpectedly, but that's not a good basis for a forecast. 

Your point about a possible wild card later is valid.  If things break down and shift quickly mid season then who knows...  and I will track everything like I do every year to the bitter end.  But again, "maybe things change" is a reason for hope not a reason to expect a good winter.  But I know expecting a bad winter a year after we had a bad winter is a tough pill to swallow for many so I am not going to fill up the thread calling people names and saying they should expect a bad winter.  I have set my expectations but everyone else can come to peace with the universe in their own way. 

Yup, it's very tough to realize that odds aren't in our favor. Just this early Summer we were potentially talking about an El Nino. A major bummer for sure. Then again, it's too early to make assumptions, and since there's really nothing special about any factors leading up to this winter, it can go either way.

[mitchnick]

The reason why I'm a bit more optimistic than Bob and PSU is that I'm not completely sold on the Nina. I like this ENSO map because it presents a clearer picture than the other maps with 50 shades of blues and yellows. Anyway, today's map is below. Then, the next image is the ENSO temp change in the last 7 days and the final map are the progged PAC winds for the next 7 days, blues for trade winds (builds Nina) and yellows and tan for westerlies (builds Nino). As you can see, this Nina is on life support imho. Finally, if you click on the link below (click on T-Depth Anomalies), you can see the underwater temps seem to be rising again off the S American coast. Now, is all this warming temporary? Could be, but this Nina is supposed to peak around January 1, so with the last ONI number at only -.1C, it's paltry. To me, that's important because it allows other factors to muscle the atmosphere around, or at least the chance. Hence, my optimism for 75%-125% snowfall chances at BWI.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

 

 

[showmethesnow]

And this is why extended model output is 'ride at your own peril'.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Pattern is like a below average snow Winter... transitory, blocks not lasting more than a week. Models quickly blow up the SE ridge. A lot of this last year. 

[mitchnick]

GEPS were essentially always correct last year with a warm look. They seem to do better in the 10-15 day range than the GEFS. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Pattern is like a below average snow Winter... transitory, blocks not lasting more than a week. Models quickly blow up the SE ridge. A lot of this last year. 

Otoh,  GEPS do show a heck of a block very close by AK where we need it (much stronger than GEFS even), so even though warm for the east, it's close.

[uncle W]

this is exactly what you don't want to see this time of year...The ao is forecast to rise to near plus 3...

 

[snowman19]

On 10/27/2017 at 9:51 AM, psuhoffman said:

I have been following the thread and I am in 100% agreement with where you are.  I have not added much lately because I said my peace a month ago and nothing has changed my mind.  There has been some "chatter" out there about QBO/Solar and links to snowfall, but when I examined that I found the correlation is non existent when looking at Nina years.  There does seem to be some correlation in other conditions but there is no increased chance of a snowy winter because of the qbo/solar combo in our current enso state.  I am not sure if those throwing that factor around, and some doing it are people I consider knowledgeable so I don't mean to disparage them, know that and are thinking enso won't be a factor this year or if they are just wishcasting because the thought of two crap years in a row is too much to take.  Whatever... I am not saying "its not going to snow".  Just like I would never guarantee a good winter in October either.  I am not arrogant enough to think I can predict what's going to happen in the next 5 months when I still struggle with tomorrow sometimes.  But I don't see any compelling objective evidence driven argument to expect a snowy winter right now.  There is always the "hope for a weird outlier type fluke" thing or maybe the patter will change unexpectedly, but that's not a good basis for a forecast. 

Your point about a possible wild card later is valid.  If things break down and shift quickly mid season then who knows...  and I will track everything like I do every year to the bitter end.  But again, "maybe things change" is a reason for hope not a reason to expect a good winter.  But I know expecting a bad winter a year after we had a bad winter is a tough pill to swallow for many so I am not going to fill up the thread calling people names and saying they should expect a bad winter.  I have set my expectations but everyone else can come to peace with the universe in their own way. 

Anthony Masiello (HM) wrote a really good article on the role of the QBO during La Niña winters a few years ago, here it is: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1 

[BTRWx]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Anthony Masiello (HM) wrote a really good article on the role of the QBO during La Niña winters a few years ago, here it is: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1 

That is fascinating!

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, BTRWx said:

That is fascinating!

It supports what I found when i simply pulled all the Nina years and compared qbo States and found most of the good snow years were with a +qbo which runs contrary to the -qbo/blocking theory. Solar also seemed to have no affect. In a Nina that link is non existent and if anything we're better off with a +qbo. Of course there are outliers in every category and last year sucked with a +qbo so anything is possible. But I still see nothing that makes me optimistic. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It supports what I found when i simply pulled all the Nina years and compared qbo States and found most of the good snow years were with a +qbo which runs contrary to the -qbo/blocking theory. Solar also seemed to have no affect. In a Nina that link is non existent and if anything we're better off with a +qbo. Of course there are outliers in every category and last year sucked with a +qbo so anything is possible. But I still see nothing that makes me optimistic. 

It could easily end up a lousy winter again,  but really, when was the last time anyone had a great feeling about an upcoming winter in late October?  There was a large consensus before 13/14 that saw nothing positive in October, then things flipped around mid-November if memory serves me. Late 1/15, most, me included, were ready to jump off a bridge and then the pattern flipped.  Christmas Eve mass 2016 we had the windows open and everyone was still dying from the heat, and the winter ended with AN snowfall.  No one here or anywhere is ever going to consistently get seasonal forecasting right in October.  He!!, I vividly remember as late as mid-November, 2009 concerns the Niño would be too strong with 72/73 spattered all over Eastern. I say we don't know what a great set up for any winter looks like in late October because we don't know with enough specificity what the rest of the globe should look like. And even if we did, chaos can bite us in the butt every time. Would I prefer a Niño? Of course,  but there have been plenty of those that sucked for us too (e.g. 72/73, 91/92, 94/95, 97/98). In short, there's nothing to worry about yet and everything remains on the table regardless of what things look like now. Honestly,  the one signal I like to see even though it too is not dispositive, is a wet fall. In that regard, there has been a flip from September and most of October, assuming medium range guidance is close to being right.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It could easily end up a lousy winter again,  but really, when was the last time anyone had a great feeling about an upcoming winter in late October?  There was a large consensus before 13/14 that saw nothing positive in October, then things flipped around mid-November if memory serves me. Late 1/15, most, me included, were ready to jump off a bridge and then the pattern flipped.  Christmas Eve mass 2016 we had the windows open and everyone was still dying from the heat, and the winter ended with AN snowfall.  No one here or anywhere is ever going to consistently get seasonal forecasting right in October.  He!!, I vividly remember as late as mid-November, 2009 concerns the Niño would be too strong with 72/73 spattered all over Eastern. I say we don't know what a great set up for any winter looks like in late October because we don't know with enough specificity what the rest of the globe should look like. And even if we did, chaos can bite us in the butt every time. Would I prefer a Niño? Of course,  but there have been plenty of those that sucked for us too (e.g. 72/73, 91/92, 95/95, 97/98). In short, there's nothing to worry about yet and everything remains on the table regardless of what things look like now. Honestly,  the one signal I like to see even though it too is not dispositive, is a wet fall. In that regard, there has been a flip from September and most of October, assuming medium range guidance is close to being right.

I don't disagree. I'm not resigned to anything. Long range is very low probability. So me saying I'm not optimistic doesn't mean I'm convinced it has to suck. Your right many of the factors that will determine our fate are yet unresolved. Some of the things we rely on are unpredictable at long leads. So we are reduced to simply looking at where we are now and pulling analogs of similar years and looking at the results. Then predicting where the other factors might go and putting it all together. But those factors could flip. And the data is limited. We don't have enough years of good records to create enough data to get a high statistical significance on correlations. There are outliers in almost every analog grouping. 

That said all of the factors that are known right now are bad. There is nothing that clearly indicates a likely positive result. So while you're totally right about it being too soon to panic or be fatalistic it's also not wrong to be a little pessimistic. I do think 2016 went about how expected based on strong Nino climo. And a weak modoki Nino or warm neutral winter like 2015 had enough going right to think it could end well. And I remember having some hope in 2014 because of the North Pacific pattern. But there are years I would have been very pessimistic now that turned out well so your point isn't lost. 2000 is a year that looking at the indices I would have thought it would suck then we got an epic 2 weeks that saved it.  Or the PDO could flip or the nao could tank.  Plenty could save us from an awful fate but hope is different from a forecast and right now the data leans towards a bad winter.  But I will be rooting for my failure and I've been wrong a lot so by no means do I think we have no hope.  

 

[CAPE]

15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It supports what I found when i simply pulled all the Nina years and compared qbo States and found most of the good snow years were with a +qbo which runs contrary to the -qbo/blocking theory. Solar also seemed to have no affect. In a Nina that link is non existent and if anything we're better off with a +qbo. Of course there are outliers in every category and last year sucked with a +qbo so anything is possible. But I still see nothing that makes me optimistic. 

I have not said too much, but I am also not overly optimistic. Based on HM's writeup, and what you have found regarding the QBO, it makes me even less so. I really think our only real shot at an overall decent winter lies with favorability in the AO/NAO domain, given most of the other indices favoring AN temps. Some persistent blocking in the NA would help to offset some of the negatives. Not to say that it wont happen, but with apparently a weak to no link between -QBO/solar and snowfall in a Nina winter, it sort of puts a damper on that theory. At best we have seen only brief periods with a useful -NAO in recent winters anyway. I still think the region as a whole should fare better than last winter, but that is not saying much. For many in our subform, a few light events and one fluke gets to climo snowfall. This doesn't work for you, but then you would tend to do better if things end up more marginal rather than overwhelmingly bad for the entire MA.