Bob Chill Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Betcha a couple of beers at a Nats game that we end up neutral/slight nina. I won't bet against a neutral in general. Going back to a mod or strong nino would really defy previous progressions going back many years. One standout would be 63-64 through 65-66. That's the only nina sandwiched by 2 ninos I can find that happened post 1950. 65-66 was a pretty good J-F snow year too so I'll hug that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Really backing down from the strong El Nino it had a few months ago with it now showing a very weak or even a neutral look. Some fairly decent spread with the members so would not be surprised if we see this bounce around over the coming months. Yea, this is a terrible time to set expectations for enso events. It could easily back down through the remainder of spring and then ramp up again as we approach fall. I don't have any expectations other than a neutral is probably the most likely outcome but anything is possible. Unfortunately we have a habit of stringing together dud or below climo winters. If I had to make a call I would go sub-climo again. It's a pretty easy call honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I won't bet against a neutral in general. Going back to a mod or strong nino would really defy previous progressions going back many years. One standout would be 63-64 through 65-66. That's the only nina sandwiched by 2 ninos I can find that happened post 1950. 65-66 was a pretty good J-F snow year too so I'll hug that for now. My thinking as well. There's not a single example since 1950 of a Nino that reached at least +1.5 that wasn't followed (once it fell below 0) by a multi-year Nina that ranged from near neutral on the neg. side all the way to a strong Nina. At this point, I'd be surprised if we end up on the + side at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Neutral transitioning to a developing weak Nino during the fall months and sticking around for at least first half winter is my expectation. That is mostly based on very recent beer induced thinking, but it seems plausible based on modeling in general and most "expert" discussion. And I want it to be the outcome, so thats that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Latest CPC ENSO update is about 3 weeks old. Next one due out next Thursday. Here is the WMO ENSO update from 4/28.. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Neutral transitioning to a developing weak Nino during the fall months and sticking around for at least first half winter is my expectation. That is mostly based on very recent beer induced thinking, but it seems plausible based on modeling in general and most "expert" discussion. And I want it to be the outcome, so thats that. I'm gonna go with the past stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 10 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm gonna go with the past stats. Its May. Thats boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 I think the Summer of 2017 will be a plus neutral Summer and I'm hopping the winter has a weak el nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 For what it's worth it sounds as if Bastardi is leaning towards a weak to maybe just touching moderate, Modoki El Nino this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: For what it's worth it sounds as if Bastardi is leaning towards a weak to maybe just touching moderate, Modoki El Nino this year. Shocker. Epic winter blocking also no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Long time no see. How have you been? Good. I'm been lurking, just not much to post about. I'd be fine with this weather sticking around through, oh, November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 3/1/2017 at 0:49 PM, Kmlwx said: Bob - you might have an illness No he doesn't. He is eternally optimistic, and so am I. I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 7:12 PM, WxUSAF said: Shocker. Epic winter blocking also no doubt. You were saying? Per Bastardi on Twitter. And to be fair he just posted it and didn't say anything about believing it. February isn't too shabby either. If it were to verify it would probably be a wall to wall epic winter for our region. Shame that the CFS is bipolar and basically crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 I'm betting drinks with anybody who wants it that we don't end up above 0.5 and probably not above 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 I will take +neutral/weak Nino at this point. Long ways to go till it really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 And the countdown begins. https://days.to/winter/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 About the only constant I have seen with the CFS over the last few weeks/month has been the idea of a split flow which is typical during an El Nino. Otherwise it has been flip flopping with the general overall pattern. The Cansips has possible slight hints of a split flow on it's latest run as well but what I find interesting is for the most part its overall general pattern over its last few runs is what we would see in a typical El Nino. With higher heights above us through Canada and Lower heights Stretching from the Bering sea down the eastern Pacific and through the southwest and southern portions of the US. Haven't seen Euros output so I can't speak for that but for what it's worth at this point I would think the CFS and Cansips are probably favoring an El Nino episode this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: About the only constant I have seen with the CFS over the last few weeks/month has been the idea of a split flow which is typical during an El Nino. Otherwise it has been flip flopping with the general overall pattern. The Cansips has possible slight hints of a split flow on it's latest run as well but what I find interesting is for the most part its overall general pattern over its last few runs is what we would see in a typical El Nino. With higher heights above us through Canada and Lower heights Stretching from the Bering sea down the eastern Pacific and through the southwest and southern portions of the US. Haven't seen Euros output so I can't speak for that but for what it's worth at this point I would think the CFS and Cansips are probably favoring an El Nino episode this winter. That seems like circular logic. If the flow is based on enso conditions, and models are predicting + conditions in the Pacific, then it would make sense to see a Nino pattern in the flow. But what happens if the predicted warming doesn't occur? I don't have access to much in the way of the enso prediction plumes, but what I have seen seem to be trending less and less in the direction of a Ninol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That seems like circular logic. If the flow is based on enso conditions, and models are predicting + conditions in the Pacific, then it would make sense to see a Nino pattern in the flow. But what happens if the predicted warming doesn't occur? I don't have access to much in the way of the enso prediction plumes, but what I have seen seem to be trending less and less in the direction of a Ninol Haven't looked into how the climate models are derived and how the ENSO models play into the equation. So depending on how much or little weight the ENSO predictions are given you may very well be right as far as the circular thinking. Even though the Cansips performed well last winter I don't take much stock in them so have never really had the inclination to look too deeply into them or even to care for that matter. The ENSO models have definitely trended away from the strong Nino they had several months ago but they have to be taken with caution until we break through the spring into June and/or July where they will carry more weight. For what it's worth I myself am leaning towards a + neutral to weak El Nino for this upcoming winter. We should have a better idea in a month or so as far as that is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 50 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't looked into how the climate models are derived and how the ENSO models play into the equation. So depending on how much or little weight the ENSO predictions are given you may very well be right as far as the circular thinking. Even though the Cansips performed well last winter I don't take much stock in them so have never really had the inclination to look too deeply into them or even to care for that matter. The ENSO models have definitely trended away from the strong Nino they had several months ago but they have to be taken with caution until we break through the spring into June and/or July where they will carry more weight. For what it's worth I myself am leaning towards a + neutral to weak El Nino for this upcoming winter. We should have a better idea in a month or so as far as that is concerned. I agree completely. Personally, I think we end up somewhere below +0.5. Past statistics are hard to ignore until an event goes against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 the MEI made a huge Jump in the Mar/Apr period over the Feb/Mar period...it's a plus .770 which is already in el nino territory using the mei... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Getting close in range to where the ENSO models will have some decent skill on their forecasts. The way they have been trending I am starting to have serious doubts we even see a brief period of weak Nino conditions. JB though is still on the Nino bandwagon and mentioned a warm subsurface pool in the 3.4 region just waiting for the easterlies to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 June and July is when skill starts to emerge with LR enso stuff but the May ECMWF plumes still show a favored weak el nino event. The ECMWF hasn't really wavered that much the last few months. Latest plumes: Current conditions in the EP region is pretty much enso neutral but it wouldn't take a lot of work with the trades to warm the region. A fairly large area of BN sst's in the PDO region going on right now. At a quick glance it looks like the pac is primed for a -PDO/+enso going into the fall. CANSIPS looks half decent @ 500mb for DJF both individually and the 3 month average. CFS is going hog wild with a -AO/NAO combo in Dec but trusting the CFS is like leaving a bowl of skittles in a room with a first grader and expecting them not to filch a couple. lol CFS Dec: I like the CANSIPS 3 month mean. Dominant +PNA and aleutian low pattern through met winter. CFS agrees with the +PNA pattern as well. The upper level pattern would most likely favor normal to BN temps and probably fairly active with storms in general. We still have 6 months to watch our hopes and dreams disintegrate but for right now it sure looks better than last winter. Not that it takes much to be better than last winter...lol. I'd be fine with a +PDO/+PNA and just lets everything play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 11 hours ago, Bob Chill said: June and July is when skill starts to emerge with LR enso stuff but the May ECMWF plumes still show a favored weak el nino event. The ECMWF hasn't really wavered that much the last few months. Latest plumes: Current conditions in the EP region is pretty much enso neutral but it wouldn't take a lot of work with the trades to warm the region. A fairly large area of BN sst's in the PDO region going on right now. At a quick glance it looks like the pac is primed for a -PDO/+enso going into the fall. CANSIPS looks half decent @ 500mb for DJF both individually and the 3 month average. CFS is going hog wild with a -AO/NAO combo in Dec but trusting the CFS is like leaving a bowl of skittles in a room with a first grader and expecting them not to filch a couple. lol CFS Dec: I like the CANSIPS 3 month mean. Dominant +PNA and aleutian low pattern through met winter. CFS agrees with the +PNA pattern as well. The upper level pattern would most likely favor normal to BN temps and probably fairly active with storms in general. We still have 6 months to watch our hopes and dreams disintegrate but for right now it sure looks better than last winter. Not that it takes much to be better than last winter...lol. I'd be fine with a +PDO/+PNA and just lets everything play out. CFS continues to not like nino chances. However, not a big believer in the CFS v2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 The Nino dream is probably dying. Here are comparisons of latest plumes to prior. CFS June 2 June 19 EC May 1 June 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 10 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The Nino dream is probably dying. Here are comparisons of latest plumes to prior. Been kind of looking like that for awhile now. We are to the point now where the Enso models should have a fairly good read on where we stand going into the winter. Wait to see what the Euro has out in a week and half and if it shows what I think it will we can probably call it quit for Nino expectations. Another good indicator about our Nino chances is the fact that Bastardi hasn't posted about it in a while. He has been hot and heavy on a Nino since late winter and kept throwing out counter points to the Enso models as they were going south. The fact I haven't see that recently is probably very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Been kind of looking like that for awhile now. We are to the point now where the Enso models should have a fairly good read on where we stand going into the winter. Wait to see what the Euro has out in a week and half and if it shows what I think it will we can probably call it quit for Nino expectations. Another good indicator about our Nino chances is the fact that Bastardi hasn't posted about it in a while. He has been hot and heavy on a Nino since late winter and kept throwing out counter points to the Enso models as they were going south. The fact I haven't see that recently is probably very telling. No idea why he would ignore the stats. In the available records, there is no instance of a strong Nino (greater than 1.5) being followed by anything other than a multi year cool period, or at least cool neutral. Based on that alone, I'd think by winter we have a better chance of a weak Nina than we do a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 9 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Been kind of looking like that for awhile now. We are to the point now where the Enso models should have a fairly good read on where we stand going into the winter. Wait to see what the Euro has out in a week and half and if it shows what I think it will we can probably call it quit for Nino expectations. Another good indicator about our Nino chances is the fact that Bastardi hasn't posted about it in a while. He has been hot and heavy on a Nino since late winter and kept throwing out counter points to the Enso models as they were going south. The fact I haven't see that recently is probably very telling. Joe D'Aleo is doing his dirty work. I have been getting the past 3-4 weeks weekly updates of the stuff they put out for free, and D'Aleo did a write up on the ENSO predictions this past weekend. Probably still available for free on Wxbell site. p.s. quit being such a downer WinterWxLuvr.....13/14 was neutral and all of the typical indices looked like carp, but that winter turned out great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Joe D'Aleo is doing his dirty work. I have been getting the past 3-4 weeks weekly updates of the stuff the put out for free, and D'Aleo did a write up on the ENSO predictions this past weekend. Probably still available for free on Wxbell site. p.s. quit being such a downer WinterWxLuvr.....13/14 was neutral and all of the typical indices looked like carp, but that winter turned out great How am I being a downer? I don't want a Nino. 13-14, 14-15 is what I want. Neutral, -0.5 to 0.5 is what I want. If anything, I'm pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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