Winter 2017-18 Disco

[mitchnick]

Cansips is pretty much a disaster imho. No blocking whatsoever so temps are AN all winter and precip is BN. I'm not going to get excited one way or the other since Enso is far from resolved, but it would have at least been exciting if there were blues over us on the 5H maps. 

[Bob Chill]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cansips is pretty much a disaster imho. No blocking whatsoever so temps are AN all winter and precip is BN. I'm not going to get excited one way or the other since Enso is far from resolved, but it would have at least been exciting if there were blues over us on the 5H maps. 

I wouldn't worry about blocking honestly. Models struggle with it at short leads. The overall config in the pac is decent considering that nina's can kill us with a -pna or +epo. DJ are ok in the pac for a Nina. There is no reason to expect a big winter. It could happen but climo isn't our friend. I'm just hoping we don't get a craptastic pac AND a se ridge. 

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I wouldn't worry about blocking honestly. Models struggle with it at short leads. The overall config in the pac is decent considering that nina's can kill us with a -pna or +epo. DJ are ok in the pac for a Nina. There is no reason to expect a big winter. It could happen but climo isn't our friend. I'm just hoping we don't get a craptastic pac AND a se ridge. 

Looks like a 07/08 redux to me.  Hope it's wrong,  generally speaking. 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like a 07/08 redux to me.  Hope it's wrong,  generally speaking. 

That's my worry. I know no two years are perfect. The pattern onset timing wasnt exact one year to another. Or the values aren't the same. But we have the same general phase of all the major pattern drivers now as 2008 and 2012 and those were the worst 2 winters on the last 10 years at least at my location. Hopefully im wrong. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's my worry. I know no two years are perfect. The pattern onset timing wasnt exact one year to another. Or the values aren't the same. But we have the same general phase of all the major pattern drivers now as 2008 and 2012 and those were the worst 2 winters on the last 10 years at least at my location. Hopefully im wrong. 

That's not my forecast at this point, just an opinion of the general look of the Cansips. And I agree,  no 2 years are alike and minor variations can make a huge difference in snowfall,  which is all I really care about. That said, an 07/08 "style" winter is certainly on the table. The current temp spike in Enso 3.4 is interesting,  however,  as it was not on the CFS2 runs as recent as 9/12. We will still need to wait on this one until mid-late November methinks.

[showmethesnow]

15 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah just looking at it. Yay SE/WA ridge?

We better score big in December

Not that it is a WOOF pattern but i'll take it. Pop a transient -NAO and/or +PNA into it and we have the ability to amplify the trough in the east as well as transport cold out of Canada. Pattern would probably provide windows of opportunity throughout all 3 months. Only hang up is the SER and/or WAR probably would argue for front end loving as most systems would probably ride up to our west, especially later in the winter, unless we had a strong -NAO.

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not that it is a WOOF pattern but i'll take it. Pop a transient -NAO and/or +PNA into it and we have the ability to amplify the trough in the east as well as transport cold out of Canada. Pattern would probably provide windows of opportunity throughout all 3 months. Only hang up is the SER and/or WAR probably would argue for front end loving as most systems would probably ride up to our west, especially later in the winter, unless we had a strong -NAO.

Yeah I am fine with the overall look in the Pacific on the CanSIPS and CFS. Signs of blocking have been showing up on the CFS from time to time, but as we know the NAO phase is not really predictable at long leads. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I am fine with the overall look in the Pacific on the CanSIPS and CFS. Signs of blocking have been showing up on the CFS from time to time, but as we know the NAO phase is not really predictable at long leads. 

I've been unusually relaxed and disinterested in long range stuff this year. I'm holding off until mid-late Nov before getting emotionally invested one way or the other. One thing we aren't seeing on any guidance is an AK vortex from hell. The kind that can render a -ao/nao useless. Seasonals have been consistently "ok" with the npac in general. That's good enough for me for now. 

Of course the jumpy CFS is doing its thing again....shades of jan 2014 right here...lol

 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've been unusually relaxed and disinterested in long range stuff this year. I'm holding off until mid-late Nov before getting emotionally invested one way or the other. One thing we aren't seeing on any guidance is an AK vortex from hell. The kind that can render a -ao/nao useless. Seasonals have been consistently "ok" with the npac in general. That's good enough for me for now. 

Of course the jumpy CFS is doing its thing again....shades of jan 2014 right here...lol

 

It ain't showing pretty blues over us, but it does have one NE of Hawaii and those gorgeous () oranges over the west coast.   lol

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've been unusually relaxed and disinterested in long range stuff this year. I'm holding off until mid-late Nov before getting emotionally invested one way or the other. One thing we aren't seeing on any guidance is an AK vortex from hell. The kind that can render a -ao/nao useless. Seasonals have been consistently "ok" with the npac in general. That's good enough for me for now. 

Of course the jumpy CFS is doing its thing again....shades of jan 2014 right here...lol

 

Lol I literally just looked at that. It has had some nice looks over the past couple weeks- all different of course- to go along with the wide range of crappy ones. But yeah I am pretty much where you are with this. Maybe in another month or so we will have some better clues about how the NAO is going to behave for the first part of winter.

[WxUSAF]

https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/917356329760710657

 

Euro monthly precip anomalies.  Dec and Feb drier than normal, Jan and March wetter than normal.

[smokeybandit]

Does that mean Dec and Feb will be colder than normal, then Jan/March warmer?

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Does that mean Dec and Feb will be colder than normal, then Jan/March warmer?

Ha probably.

[wxdude64]

27 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Does that mean Dec and Feb will be colder than normal, then Jan/March warmer?

That would be 'normal' for the area.

[Bob Chill]

I wouldn't expect much different from the Euro seasonal. All seasonal models should be showing warmest anoms in the SE and BN precip in general for the coast. Climo is what it is and that's our battle this year. Once we get into late Nov we can start seeing what possible features (if any) are showing up that can buck nina climo. -NAO being the obvious one but a -EPO changes the landscape in the conus as does a +pna. If we go into Dec with a strong +AO/-PNA/+EPO we can probably cancel Dec early. lol

[mitchnick]

Those temp anomalies are NOT bad at all. DEC normal, JAN +.25C, FEB, the warmest month is only +1C, and MAR is +.5C. JAN, on paper, look pretty darn good with the +precip, and MAR isn't far behind. But, those are averages for the month and we never know which part of the month is bringing the "good" stuff and which part the bad.  In any event, considering we're talking a NINA, sign me up right now.

 

EDIT: That precip anomaly pattern for JAN has Miller B written all over it. lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 10/9/2017 at 1:38 PM, mitchnick said:

Those temp anomalies are NOT bad at all. DEC normal, JAN +.25C, FEB, the warmest month is only +1C, and MAR is +.5C. JAN, on paper, look pretty darn good with the +precip, and MAR isn't far behind. But, those are averages for the month and we never know which part of the month is bringing the "good" stuff and which part the bad.  In any event, considering we're talking a NINA, sign me up right now.

 

EDIT: That precip anomaly pattern for JAN has Miller B written all over it. lol

Yeah, I wouldn't complain too much at that just given some of the other indicators I've been reading about in here.  Certainly better than almost non-stop +5 or worse like last year, when there was no chance to even bother hoping for anything.  I'm not expecting much this year, but my hope is that we should have a couple of decent moderate events to follow that will be fun.  And that it will be notably colder than last winter (very low bar, I know!).

[mitchnick]

I'll say this much, the top 4 years on todays super ensembles map were awfully blocky that winter: 68/69, 95/96 n 63/64 & 77/78. We can hope.

[SnowLover22]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say this much, the top 4 years on todays super ensembles map were awfully blocky that winter: 68/69, 95/96 n 63/64 & 77/78. We can hope.

West based for those 4 years?

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

West based for those 4 years?

Don't know,  but down here 2 were great/historic, one was above normal and active, and 68/69 was known more for its cold if memory serves me correctly. However,  I would guess that 95/96 & 63/64 were west based in light of snowfall numbers. 

[mitchnick]

Whoah, my eyeballs failed me. First year was 66/67 not 68/69. That year had great snowfall numbers.  Man, that map just got great!

[SnowLover22]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Whoah, my eyeballs failed me. First year was 66/67 not 68/69. That year had great snowfall numbers.  Man, that map just got great!

 Definitely sounds like there is reason for hope that the upcoming winter will not be awful hopefully for both of our sub forums. A winter like 2009-2010 would be great for both of our areas lol but probually will not happen again in my lifetime.

 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say this much, the top 4 years on todays super ensembles map were awfully blocky that winter: 68/69, 95/96 n 63/64 & 77/78. We can hope.

***** Mitch, could I get the link to this? Lost the link a couple of computers ago. *****

----------------------------------------------------------

Four of the 6 years I used on my indice based composites from Oct 2 made the top 10 here. (54-55, 67-68, 95-96, 05-06)

Pulled up both composites to see how they compared for the winter and they were a great match. They are posted below. Looked at each month as well and they were good matches as well.

 

Super Ensemble years

My composite years

 

Pulled up the surface for the super ensembles and if they don't scream high latitude blocking I don't know what does.

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

@mitchnick

Won't take us long to know if the super ensembles have any legs. Pulled up the composite on the years shown for November and they would suggest an early onset of winter with a strong -NAO already being established. Like the look and would not be surprised of seeing more then just mood flakes during the month if this were to come close to verifying.

Here's a list of November snowfall totals for Baltimore and Dulles on these years.

Balt                               Dulles

54-55 (T)                       No record

55-56 (2.0)                    No record

63-64 (T)                       (T)

67-68 (8.4)                     (11.4)

68-69 (4.3)                     (5.8)

75-76 (-)                        (T)

77-78 (.6)                       (.1)

83-84 (T)                        (.3)

95-96 (1.0)                     (3.6)

05-06 (.5)                       (T)

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

The end of the Eps run ( day 14-15) has a decent look already . Hope it verifies. Don't want 75 and short weather on Halloween..lol

Looking at the 240 I take it the ridging in the east migrates northward into Greenland, trough undercuts that and we also see ridging building into the west?

Most of what I have seen the last month or so suggests an early start to the winter so I am thinking about pulling the trigger and getting weatherbell early this winter.

[aldie 22]

I'm ok with this late warmth. I'm becoming convinced of an early winter, ghosts of December 5th coming. Shorts weather in mid January 

[showmethesnow]

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm ok with this late warmth. I'm becoming convinced of an early winter, ghosts of December 5th coming. Shorts weather in mid January 

Considering that we are talking a Nina I am actually getting somewhat stoked for this winter. Things I have been seeing over the last month or so would suggest the possibility of wall to wall winter cold with an early start and a late finish. Now whether we can score with snow is another story altogether but give me the cold and the blocking and I would like our chances.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm ok with this late warmth. I'm becoming convinced of an early winter, ghosts of December 5th coming. Shorts weather in mid January 

The move back to Leesburg has brought out the bull in you again.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

***** Mitch, could I get the link to this? Lost the link a couple of computers ago. *****

----------------------------------------------------------

Four of the 6 years I used on my indice based composites from Oct 2 made the top 10 here. (54-55, 67-68, 95-96, 05-06)

Pulled up both composites to see how they compared for the winter and they were a great match. They are posted below. Looked at each month as well and they were good matches as well.

 

Super Ensemble years

My composite years

 

Pulled up the surface for the super ensembles and if they don't scream high latitude blocking I don't know what does.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

[psuhoffman]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know,  but down here 2 were great/historic, one was above normal and active, and 68/69 was known more for its cold if memory serves me correctly. However,  I would guess that 95/96 & 63/64 were west based in light of snowfall numbers. 

68/69 had some massive east coast storms but they mostly missed our area with the big totals. One took too long to get going, late developing miller b type. One other was a moderate storm with precip type issues in our area before bombing out later. But those kinds of meso scale detail problems  aren't worth worrying about right now.