Winter 2017-18 Disco

[Bob Chill]

I'm rooting for an eruption but not Agung. Yellowstone would be acceptable. I treat volcanic ash as snowfall in my yard. 

[Mason Dixon]

On 9/26/2017 at 0:20 PM, Mason Dixon said:

Expect a post soon from snowman19 stating he spoke to a resident  there who said the tremors are nothing like 1963

Let me save you the trouble snowdope19. Here is the only post I made about the volcano. How you can take my post and claim I am openly hoping for death and destruction is beyond me, but considering you are an idiot, I understand 

[Mason Dixon]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for an eruption but not Agung. Yellowstone would be acceptable. I treat volcanic ash as snowfall in my yard. 

Lol

[Eskimo Joe]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for an eruption but not Agung. Yellowstone would be acceptable. I treat volcanic ash as snowfall in my yard. 

The real question is whether DCA will measure the ashfall correctly.  

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The real question is whether DCA will measure the ashfall correctly.  

Not a chance.

I'm hoping for a nice wet layer of molten lava topped off with a thick dry ash layer. Always good to build a good volcanic base before before topping it with ash. Won't lose much to compaction that way. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a chance.

I'm hoping for a nice wet layer of molten lava topped off with a thick dry ash layer. Always good to build a good volcanic base before before topping it with ash. Won't lose much to compaction that way. 

True.  Plus it'll be harder to melt off...we'll finally do deep winter right.

[psuhoffman]

14 hours ago, Mason Dixon said:

Just shut up already. After the very strange pm you sent me I realize besides being a troll, you have serious mental issues too. 

There is obviously a good reason he is on a 5 post limit. I'm pretty sure everyone sees him for what he is. Try not to let him get you worked up, that's exactly what he wants. 

[iFred]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Weather aside, ‘Mason Dixon’ is cheering on a massive volcanic eruption because he thinks (wrongly) that it’s going to lead to a cold and snowy winter. It’s very disturbing that someone would want and hope for such devastation and death

I feel the same when anyone cheers or shows even the slightest enthusiasm for weather that causes deadly car accidents, our homeless population to die of exposure, untold damage to roads and cars, and destroy vegetation with ice and cold. A proper weather enthusiast, like ourselves, should really be cheering for the benign and minimal disruption. Rooting for volcanoes, severe weather, and cold are one in the same in my book.

 

Sticking to the topic though, I’m at least excited that the teleconnections are not exactly the same as last year so we have hope for some season long entertainment as opposed to waiting for melty March mush. 

[Bob Chill]

I hear moral police sirens wailing in the distance. 

I always root for benign beautiful weather on the heels of cataclysmic events so there's that.  Makes good photo ops. 

[psuhoffman]

None of us controls the weather.  It's going to happen regardless. Being excited or amazed by the spectacle of it isn't the same as wishing harm on people. But if it makes you feel better we can start a thread for moral outrage and you can have an echo chamber of good people who want it to be 75 and sunny everyday. 

[Ji]

On 9/28/2017 at 0:54 PM, Bob Chill said:

The SSTA animation really shows a building Nina over the last 2 months. Especially with the anomalies in nino 1-2 building right now. If this trend continues we'll be talking mod nina shortly. 

 

 

we have better winters with Mod La Nina than with weak La Nina from some stats i saw

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, iFred said:

I feel the same when anyone cheers or shows even the slightest enthusiasm for weather that causes deadly car accidents, our homeless population to die of exposure, untold damage to roads and cars, and destroy vegetation with ice and cold. A proper weather enthusiast, like ourselves, should really be cheering for the benign and minimal disruption. Rooting for volcanoes, severe weather, and cold are one in the same in my book.

 

Sticking to the topic though, I’m at least excited that the teleconnections are not exactly the same as last year so we have hope for some season long entertainment as opposed to waiting for melty March mush. 

Guilty as charged. get the handcuffs. Hurl my sorry ass in jail ASAP. I don't need a trial, plenty of evidence on this board lol.

I LOVE severe ice on roads. The most beautiful sound I have ever heard, apart from the roar of catastrophic floods and the blood chilling screams of people caught in the floods, is the whine of tires spinning on icepacked roads in rush hour! There's nothing like heavy freezing drizzle in mid 20s ambient temps. I WORSHIP catastrophic winter weather. Too bad Washington DC will be mild and sunny all winter thanks to a weak La Nina, while New England enjoys a 10,000 year epic winter with the entire National Guard deployed to try and dig them out lol.

You get a winter THAT BAD ---- three words: Get The Jebman!

[Bob Chill]

Cansips just cancelled met winter in its entirety. Someone should start a winter 18-19 thread and mods can lock this one. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cansips just cancelled met winter in its entirety. Someone should start a winter 18-19 thread and mods can lock this one. 

I literally just checked TT and it hadn't updated.  Wxbell? 

[mitchnick]

Come to think about it,  it comes out on the 0z run on the 1st of the month and it's not yet 0z 10/1/17.

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

Guilty as charged. get the handcuffs. Hurl my sorry ass in jail ASAP. I don't need a trial, plenty of evidence on this board lol.

I LOVE severe ice on roads. The most beautiful sound I have ever heard, apart from the roar of catastrophic floods and the blood chilling screams of people caught in the floods, is the whine of tires spinning on icepacked roads in rush hour! There's nothing like heavy freezing drizzle in mid 20s ambient temps. I WORSHIP catastrophic winter weather. Too bad Washington DC will be mild and sunny all winter thanks to a weak La Nina, while New England enjoys a 10,000 year epic winter with the entire National Guard deployed to try and dig them out lol.

You get a winter THAT BAD ---- three words: Get The Jebman!

You’re my favorite.

Being relatively new to our climate, I haven’t had many opportunities for Jebwalks, just the ‘16 blizzard. One of my favorite weather memories was taking a walk during a Seattle windstorm and to listen to the beautiful sound of 70mph gusts tear limbs from the evergreens and the occasional futuristic buzz from a substation going off after a tree falling onto it. Of course there was untold destruction and a few people died from Co2 poisoning, it sucks. I can’t control the weather, I can only complain or embrace it with my enthusiasm.

I’ll be honest, I’m rooting for some volcanic activity in the least direct impact to human life possible. I want to see the impact of volcanic sulfates ejected to the tropics during their peak solar irradiance while we leave our current solar cycle. Given the the amazing instrumentation we have available to us today as opposed to Pinatubo, we may see with some amazing fidelity the impacts of sulfates and use that as a potential geoengineered stop gap to climate change.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Has Bob become a troll?

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Has Bob become a troll?

Lol- ooops...bad Intel. A friend emailed me earlier tonight and said the "new cansips is a complete disaster. No winter at all for me"

He's reliable so I just relayed it without checking panels because i was out dealing with a dozen 13 year olds at a bday party. Lol. He's probably right though. We'll know shortly. 

[showmethesnow]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol- ooops...bad Intel. A friend emailed me earlier tonight and said the "new cansips is a complete disaster. No winter at all for me"

He's reliable so I just relayed it without checking panels because i was out dealing with a dozen 13 year olds at a bday party. Lol. He's probably right though. We'll know shortly. 

Fake News. 

[mitchnick]

12 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol- ooops...bad Intel. A friend emailed me earlier tonight and said the "new cansips is a complete disaster. No winter at all for me"

He's reliable so I just relayed it without checking panels because i was out dealing with a dozen 13 year olds at a bday party. Lol. He's probably right though. We'll know shortly. 

Please tell me you weren't a clown. 

[showmethesnow]

As many on these boards are aware indications are strong that we will be dealing with a Nina for this winter which doesn't bode well for winter prospects. Needless to say, as it has been mentioned innumerable times in the last couple of months, we need to see blocking for any hopes of a decent winter in our region. With blocking we would see a backing up of the flow in the east which would allow buckling of the jet into the east. No blocking and we are basically SOL for the winter. So I thought I would delve a little deeper into this coming winter and what the prospects of blocking showing up might be.  (Note: Years used are for that January of the winter season.)

With the Pacific being the major player on the pattern and the implications for our region for the winter I thought I would begin with that. The Pacific is driven by ENSO and the PDO with the ENSO being the key driver and the PDO a secondary player. With ENSO a negative state (Nina) typically features less snowfall and a warmer winter where as a positive state (Nino) favors cold and snow. So when looking at ENSO and its progression at this point in time, it suggests chances are good we will probably be dealing with a weak to moderate Nina. So I have done a composite below of the years that have featured an ENSO value of -.5 to -1.5. **** (50, 55, 56, 65, 71,72,75,84,85,96,99,01,06,09,11,12)

 

500 mb Dec-Jan (Enso values of -.5 through -1.5)

As you can see this look won't have people dancing in the streets for the prospects of a snowy winter in the mid-Atlantic nor for most of the East Coast for that matter. This is what we typically expect to see in the Pacific with a Nina, with higher heights to the west through the Aleutians and lower heights to the east of that over the Northwest US and western Canada.  This look would most likely feature a trough predominately in the West where the cold would be mostly confined. The varying storm tracks would for the most part cut to our west as well. About the only positive that we do see is some very weak blocking showing up around Greenland. 

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Now let's consider the PDO. When dealing with the PDO we generally find that when it is in sync with the ENSO (cold-cold, warm-warm) that the PDO enhances the Nina or Ninos effect on the weather pattern. Conversely when they are polar opposites (warm-cold) the PDO will mute the Nina or Ninos effect. But at this point the PDO is in a transition state from a positive to negative. Looking at an animation this transition is obvious because of the muddied look we have seen through the summer with no clear cut signal coming through. So in consideration of the PDO most likely dancing around a neutral to cold neutral state through for this winter season I have favored the cold side of the indice values so I will be using years that have featured a Moderate negative state through a weak positive state. So when we do a composite of both the ENSO and PDO we end up with these years. *****(55, 65, 71, 75, 96, 99, 01, 06, 09, 11) 

 

500 mb Dec-Feb ENSO (-.5 to -1.5), PDO (Weak positive to moderate negative)

Notice we are seeing the typical Nina look in the Pacific but now we also see significant blocking around Greenland and NE Canada. We also now see an extension of the lower heights in the northwest easterly through the northeast off the coast. This is a much better look then we saw with the above ENSO composite though it probably would favor areas to are north more so then our region though we would probably still be in the game. But again notice the Blocking

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Now I want to step back from the ENSO and PDO for a second and look into the QBO. Not an expert at all when in comes to the QBO but I will present the basics in regards to what it means for our winter. If any with more knowledge on it want to expound or correct me please do. When considering the QBO a negative indice value normally corresponds to a weakened Atlantic Jet and increased chances of seeing sudden stratospheric warmings. What this basically means is that you have a greater chance of seeing a -AO as well as a -NAO during the negative phases of the QBO. A positive phase of the QBO corresponds to greater chances of seeing a +AO and +NAO. The QBO is a predictable indice to follow so there is not as much guess work as to what phase we will be in at any given time. At this point we are looking to be entering the heart of the negative phase as we go into our winter season which bodes well for our chances to see a -AO and -NAO throughout the winter season. And this can be seen below in the composite of the projected ENSO and QBO values for these years. ******(50, 55, 65, 71, 75, 84, 96, 01, 06, 12)

 

500 mb Dec-Feb ENSO (-.5 to -1.5), QBO (Moderate to Strong negative)

Again we see the typical setup in the Pacific. But look around Greenland, though not as strong as the ENSO, PDO combo we are once again seeing blocking. 

Note: There seemed to be a somewhat strong correlation between the these states of the PDO and the QBO so many of the same years were shared. So not surprisingly we saw decent blocking with both.

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Now lets do a ENSO-PDO-QBO combo of the values above. (55, 65, 71, 75, 96, 01, 06) Of note 6 of these 7 years featured a neg AO and NAO.

 

500 mb Dec-Feb ENSO (-.5 to -1.5), PDO (Weak positive to moderate negative), QBO (Moderate to Strong negative)

Once again we see blocking.  Though the pattern once again probably favors just to our north it is a decent pattern we can work with and will most likely provide us with opportunities.

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Now since the projected ENSO-PDO-QBO combo strongly supports the idea of a -NAO/-AO for the winter I am going to drop 1975 out of the group above because it featured the only +AO/NAO. Now this is what we are left with for the winter months. (55, 65, 71, 96, 01. 06)

Dec

Jan

Feb

 

As you can see we are looking at moderate to strong blocking through the whole of winter.

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At this point it looks as if the QBO and the PDO are arguing strongly for blocking this winter and quite possibly for the entirety of it. With a Nina probably incoming this raises our chances of seeing at least a modest winter tremendously. I think one other consideration, if in fact we do see blocking, will be where it in fact sets up and how strong it is. My thoughts on that are we probably need to see strong blocking as well as a west based -NAO with hopefully an extension of higher heights over top of us and to the west somewhat. All in all though I like our chances much better then what I was thinking just a few weeks ago.

For those curious, here are the snowfall totals for the winters above. As you can see we had two crappy winters, one modest winter, two close to avg winters and need I even mention 1996?

Snowfall totals per Kocin's book:

1955 Balt 10.1 DC 6.6

1965 Balt 18.6 DC 17.1

1971 Balt 14.0 DC 11.7

1996 Balt 62.5 DC 46.0 A winter to remember.

2001 Balt 8.7 DC 7.4

2006 Balt 19.6 DC 13.6 also featured a snowstorm that dumped over a foot-foot and a half region wide. 

[WVclimo]

Appreciate the work on that post, Showmethesnow.  Hope it foretells a decent winter.  For the missing season:

2005-06: Balt 19.6", DCA 13.6"

for future reference, snowfall totals from the local first-order airport stations can be found here:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lwx

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Appreciate the work on that post, Showmethesnow.  Hope it foretells a decent winter.  For the missing season:

2005-06: Balt 19.6", DCA 13.6"

for future reference, snowfall totals from the local first-order airport stations can be found here:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lwx

Thank you. Thought 2006 was a little better then that though.

[Bob Chill]

Great post @showmethesnow. Hard to get excited for a big storm winter no matter how you slice it. They just don't come easy with northern stream dominant winters. Snow events happen but they are rarely juiced. Much better chances at a big storm as you head north obviously. 

05-06 was a warm winter in general iirc. The one big storm was a mashed potato event. Ground wasn't even frozen leading in. Looked pretty but melted fast. 

We can get some decent cold in nina's so that's good. I'd be completely happy with some cold powder events even if we don't rack up big totals. Last year was pretty much a winterless disaster so getting some cold sticking snow will feel like Siberia. 

[nw baltimore wx]

I enjoyed the read Showmethesnow. Nice work.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Fantastic post Showme.

I am curious as to why you left 67-68 out of your Enso years.  It might be the best match we have, going back to the strong nino of 15-16.

[eurojosh]

Really awesome post, @showmethesnow. 

 

Is there any reason to hope that older years in that dataset would become less relevant due to increases in SSTs off the east coast compared to the 1950s or 60s? I'm trying to find data to support that assumption (great incidental read here, btw: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do%3Fid%3D79624%26pt%3D10%26p%3D52174&ved=0ahUKEwiPhbX1_tDWAhVRyWMKHfBgDq0QFghAMAM&usg=AFQjCNF-hN_NqI5nBolMpU3MjgBaTyjVCg) but haven't yet done so. If a degree or two in SSTs does make a difference however, that should be regardless of the Pacific Nina and North Atlantic blocking at a local impact level... I think...

 

______________

I think therefore I wishcast....

[showmethesnow]

8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Fantastic post Showme.

I am curious as to why you left 67-68 out of your Enso years.  It might be the best match we have, going back to the strong nino of 15-16.

Great catch. Thank you. Seems that the great color coded Enso chart I was using wasn't so great at color coding for Ninas after all. Missed 4 years that should have made the initial cut (1951, 1968, 1986, 1997). Of those 4, 1968 should be added to the final cut. Also after looking over the numbers once again I found two years that were close but just didn't quite meet my criteria for PDO, 1965 and 1971. So the updated years should be 1955, 1968, 1975, 1996, 2001, 2006.

Updated Dec-Feb 500 mb

Updated Dec 500 mb

Updated Jan 500mb

Updated Feb 500 mb

 

Very good matches on the updated composites to what we were seeing with my initial post

 

I also pulled up November and March out of curiosity. 
 

November 500 mb

March 500 mb

November - March 500 mb

November and March aren't shabby either. Would probably mean an early winter and a late spring. Honestly going into a La Nina and seeing these composites for November through March is far and above what I would have hoped for. Where do I sign up?

Here's an updated snow list.

1955 Balt 10.1 DC 6.6

1968 Balt 21.4 DC 21.4

1975 Balt 12.2 DC 12.8

1996 Balt 62.5 DC 46.0 

2001 Balt 8.7 DC 7.4

2006 Balt 19.6 DC 13.6
 

[showmethesnow]

7 hours ago, eurojosh said:

Really awesome post, @showmethesnow. 

 

Is there any reason to hope that older years in that dataset would become less relevant due to increases in SSTs off the east coast compared to the 1950s or 60s? I'm trying to find data to support that assumption (great incidental read here, btw: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do%3Fid%3D79624%26pt%3D10%26p%3D52174&ved=0ahUKEwiPhbX1_tDWAhVRyWMKHfBgDq0QFghAMAM&usg=AFQjCNF-hN_NqI5nBolMpU3MjgBaTyjVCg) but haven't yet done so. If a degree or two in SSTs does make a difference however, that should be regardless of the Pacific Nina and North Atlantic blocking at a local impact level... I think...

 

______________

I think therefore I wishcast....

Honestly that is above my pay grade.  

I am still trying to wrap my head around on how to account for the adjusted heights for the earlier years due to warming.

But if I were to make a guess I would say that there is probably some influence there. How much though, no idea.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Honestly that is above my pay grade.  

I am still trying to wrap my head around on how to account for the adjusted heights for the earlier years due to warming.

But if I were to make a guess I would say that there is probably some influence there. How much though, no idea.

There is some influence but if we're just looking for strong anomaly locations it doesn't have that much influence for our purposes. Areas of weak BN height anomalies get kinda muddy using old analogs with 81-10 climo period but since we're looking for strong anomaly locations it doesn't matter much.