Winter 2017-18 Disco

[uncle W]

DCA ave. winter temp and snowfall for la nina winters and weak negative winters...based on DJF oni...Dec-Mar ave AO...the snowiest winter with an oni below -1.0 is 1973-74 with 16.7"...it did have a negative ao on average...the next six strongest had a positive ao and either had temperatures above average and below average snowfall...6 of the 14 plus ao winters had 10" or more...43%...12 of the 16 negative ao winters had 10" or more...75%...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...ave temp...snowfall

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........41.4.......16.7"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........38.8.........5.7"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........40.1.......15.4"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........40.4.........2.2"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........40.9.........4.9"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........42.9.........3.4"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........41.2.......11.2"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644.......36.7........11.7"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329.......36.7........10.1"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162.......35.3........46.0"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512.......36.4........11.3"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062.......38.1........10.3"

1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......37.8........10.2"

1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......35.2........21.4"

2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......36.1..........7.4"

2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......39.4........13.6"

1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......40.2........16.8"

2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......37.3..........7.5"

2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......43.4..........2.0"

1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......36.8..........6.6"

1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......36.7........17.1"

1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......37.3..........8.6"

1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......41.5........12.8"

1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......41.6..........6.7"

2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......37.4........32.0"

1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......31.9........21.4"

1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......37.5........37.1"

1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......35.7........15.4"

2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......41.4..........3.1"

2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......44.9..........3.4"

[H2O]

Are we legit hoping for a volcano eruption to save our winter now?  sad

[showmethesnow]

Just now, H2O said:

Are we legit hoping for a volcano eruption to save our winter now?  sad

Of all the things we have looked for over the years to save the winter this will be the first time that I can recall that we are counting on a volcano. That said, let's do this. 

 

[mattie g]

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

Are we legit hoping for a volcano eruption to save our winter now?  sad

EJ and I are hoping for a massive supervolcano-like eruption that kills millions. Whether that affects the Nina or not doesn't really matter.

[showmethesnow]

21 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Is there any publicly available seismograph data from Agung? I haven't seen any posted on Twitter so far....but I haven't given it an in-depth look yet. 

Will this work for you? 

A man monitors seismic waves at the Mount Agung monitoring station in Karangasem, September 23.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

Are we legit hoping for a volcano eruption to save our winter now?  sad

Seems more legit than hoping for snow in a Siberia. I'm in. 

[Wonderdog]

Fast forward to February 2018. Ji complains that we only received 3 feet of snow thanks to the volcano while New England and Boston got six feet plus.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Fast forward to February 2018. Ji complains that we only received 3 feet of snow thanks to the volcano while New England and Boston got six feet plus.

Too wordy. Fixed

[Mason Dixon]

Got the strangest pm from snowman19. The guy is one strange dude. 

[PhineasC]

On 9/25/2017 at 9:47 PM, psuhoffman said:

His analogs never make any sense. 2 of them aren't even close on enso. Bad PDO match on another. I hate to criticize without knowing his methodology but it's hard when his "analogs" typically disregard the most influential factors we know of. His end result forecast could very well be spot on and I might agree but the road to the destination seems weird. 

He had a few decent years back in the early days of these boards when we knew a lot less about long range forecasting. I haven't been too impressed by his guesses over the last several years. The grading methodology used by Weather53 on these forecasts is overly generous and strange, which tells me the forecast itself is mostly old-timer stuff like looking at persistence, animal behavior, maybe Canadian snow cover... stuff like that. I put him on the same level as the Farmer's Almanac, honestly.

[Bob Chill]

I'm hugging 32-33 analog. It's a near perfect natural disaster match. Hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanos. 32-33 was 150% climo snow in DC. I'm in. Just gotta wait for the big kaboom before locking in. 

[Bob Chill]

The SSTA animation really shows a building Nina over the last 2 months. Especially with the anomalies in nino 1-2 building right now. If this trend continues we'll be talking mod nina shortly. 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The SSTA animation really shows a building Nina over the last 2 months. Especially with the anomalies in nino 1-2 building right now. If this trend continues we'll be talking mod nina shortly. 

 

 

Was glancing over enso yesterday and got the impression that moderate was almost a foregone conclusion. The only question now probably is, will it reach strong category. And with the rapid flip we are seeing it would not shock me whatsoever.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm hugging 32-33 analog. It's a near perfect natural disaster match. Hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanos. 32-33 was 150% climo snow in DC. I'm in. Just gotta wait for the big kaboom before locking in. 

No locusts? What about total eclipses?

Check on the total eclipse. Had one in N England in 32. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_August_31,_1932

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm hugging 32-33 analog. It's a near perfect natural disaster match. Hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanos. 32-33 was 150% climo snow in DC. I'm in. Just gotta wait for the big kaboom before locking in. 

enso is a good fit also...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

[Bob Chill]

46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

No locusts? What about total eclipses?

Check on the total eclipse. Had one in N England in 32. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_August_31,_1932

Oh snap! Dude, this is gettin real....VERY real...

[mitchnick]

53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was glancing over enso yesterday and got the impression that moderate was almost a foregone conclusion. The only question now probably is, will it reach strong category. And with the rapid flip we are seeing it would not shock me whatsoever.

Remember, the ONI number is for a 3 month average. All the models show a quick NINA peak then a rapid rise in temps right after Christmas so that 3.4 is near neutral by April 1. No way we get into strong imho for an ONI average. Might we see a -1.6C or less weekly temps for maybe a month? Probably, but that is unlikely to put this one into the strong category. And by "strong", I mean -1.6C or colder.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Remember, the ONI number is for a 3 month average. All the models show a quick NINA peak then a rapid rise in temps right after Christmas so that 3.4 is near neutral by April 1. No way we get into strong imho for an ONI average. Might we see a -1.6C or less weekly temps for maybe a month? Probably, but that is unlikely to put this one into the strong category. And by "strong", I mean -1.6C or colder.

The way the models have been handling the ENSO up to this point I am not sure I would take anything off the table. But you do have a valid point of whether it can sustain strong nina numbers for 3 months. Anyway we look at it though the enso is looking worse and worse for our winter hopes.

[Bob Chill]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Remember, the ONI number is for a 3 month average. All the models show a quick NINA peak then a rapid rise in temps right after Christmas so that 3.4 is near neutral by April 1. No way we get into strong imho for an ONI average. Might we see a -1.6C or less weekly temps for maybe a month? Probably, but that is unlikely to put this one into the strong category. And by "strong", I mean -1.6C or colder.

I tend to agree. The nina is currently building but the cold anomalies are really tight to the equator. Not much real estate being taken up yet. Just looking back at 07 or 2010 shows a much more classic nina look in the Pac as a whole and not just the numeric data. I'm not sure odds favor a mod nina yet. 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I tend to agree. The nina is currently building but the cold anomalies are really tight to the equator. Not much real estate being taken up yet. Just looking back at 07 or 2010 shows a much more classic nina look in the Pac as a whole and not just the numeric data. I'm not sure odds favor a mod nina yet. 

 

 

That brings up a question I have wondered about for awhile. As you said there is a narrow strip confined on the equator with the cold anomalies. But has there ever been a study or index that that has looked into an expansive areal coverage of cold anomalies that are part of the cold pool but have extended beyond the enso regions? Such as shown in your two examples above?

[mitchnick]

This week's ENSO 3.4 is -.4C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

....while last ONI number is for JJA, and that's +.2C

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Like I said, my opinion is that it doesn't get to strong for one of the tri-monthly readings, but the difference in our weather between -1.4 and -1.6 would be impossible to measure anyway.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This week's ENSO 3.4 is -.4C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

....while last ONI number is for JJA, and that's +.2C

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Like I said, my opinion is that it doesn't get to strong for one of the tri-monthly readings, but the difference in our weather between -1.4 and -1.6 would be impossible to measure anyway.

I agree. If we come close to those numbers we could probably kiss our winter goodbye anyway. Wouldn't matter what it was categorized at that point

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That brings up a question I have wondered about for awhile. As you said there is a narrow strip confined on the equator with the cold anomalies. But has there ever been a study or index that that has looked into an expansive areal coverage of cold anomalies that are part of the cold pool but have extended beyond the enso regions? Such as shown in your two examples above?

I'm not really sure one way or the other. I would assume the nina forcing isn't as strong with a narrow configuration. Right now the cold anomalies are mostly surrounded by basically "normal" SSTs. Even though there's a lot of yellow, there's a decent amount of area that is only +.5C. We'll see how it looks in another month. My guess is a lot more blue will be showing on that chart. 

[snowman19]

On 9/26/2017 at 0:20 PM, Mason Dixon said:

Expect a post soon from snowman19 stating he spoke to a resident  there who said the tremors are nothing like 1963

You obviously want a cold and snowy winter right?? Do your research and be careful what you wish for!! Why are you rooting for a major tropical volcanic eruption (Mount Agung), do you realize what that would do?? Major tropical volcanic eruptions actually work to strengthen the stratospheric polar vortex tremendously the 1st winter after the eruption by pumping sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, which leads to ++AO. It is the 2nd winter after after an eruption that you tend to see -AO and a colder winter

[Mason Dixon]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

You obviously want a cold and snowy winter right?? Do your research and be careful what you wish for!! Why are you rooting for a major tropical volcanic eruption (Mount Agung), do you realize what that would do?? Major tropical volcanic eruptions actually work to strengthen the stratospheric polar vortex tremendously the 1st winter after the eruption by pumping sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, which leads to ++AO. It is the 2nd winter after after an eruption that you tend to see -AO and a colder winter

Just shut up already. After the very strange pm you sent me I realize besides being a troll, you have serious mental issues too. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

Just shut up already. After the very strange pm you sent me I realize besides being a troll, you have serious mental issues too. 

You are hoping for a major tropical volcano to erupt. That leads to a cold stratosphere, strong stratospheric PV and ++AO the immediately following winter. You are actually rooting for a warm winter...

[uncle W]

a major volcano would lead to the death of thousands of people...I hope it is a dud...

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, uncle W said:

a major volcano would lead to the death of thousands of people...I hope it is a dud...

Weather aside, ‘Mason Dixon’ is cheering on a massive volcanic eruption because he thinks (wrongly) that it’s going to lead to a cold and snowy winter. It’s very disturbing that someone would want and hope for such devastation and death

[nw baltimore wx]

If this winter is going to be crappy anyway, I'm willingly to sacrifice it to Pele or whoever the volcano god is in the down under for an even better winter next year. 

[Mason Dixon]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Weather aside, ‘Mason Dixon’ is cheering on a massive volcanic eruption because he thinks (wrongly) that it’s going to lead to a cold and snowy winter. It’s very disturbing that someone would want and hope for such devastation and death

Could you provide ONE post of mine cheering on a volcanic eruption. One post. If you can't go crawl back under the pile of crap you slithered out from