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Winter 2017-18 Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Interesting...So, could you explain a little more about how exactly that affects the climate?

Stratospheric aerosols/sulfates from volcanoes help block out the sun...so if the eruption is strong enough, then it blocks out enough sun to have a noticeable affect on the global climate. Pinatubo actually dropped global temps by several tenths Celsius for a few months (despite a strong El Niño acting as a headwind) and took a couple years to recover back to pre-eruption levels. 

In the immediate aftermath of large eruptions like that, there is some short term effects on the arctic that seem to promote a +AO that next winter. The arctic become really cold during that time as the polar vortex enlarges and strengthens. 

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Mason Dixon

Mason Dixon

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Apparently the latest is that the experts are now saying this eruption is unlikely to reach or exceed the 1963 eruption 

Lol, always downplaying anything that could cause it to be cold. No wonder you were kicked out of the southeast forum. A one trick pony 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Mason Dixon said:

He has no source. He is troll. Always has been 

Unlike some trolls lot of what he says is true. I have to begrudgingly agree with him much of the time. But he only shows up when it's bad news. Being pessimistic is ok but if you only come around to get a kick out of delivering bad news and disappear when it's good, that not providing any value. I don't remember him around much the week of the blizzard in 2016 but a few weeks later when a feb threat was falling apart suddenly he felt we needed his constant analysis of how bad the setup was.  Probability argues the 1963 level is unlikely but I would ratter a less biased messenger. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unlike some trolls lot of what he says is true. I have to begrudgingly agree with him much of the time. But he only shows up when it's bad news. Being pessimistic is ok but if you only come around to get a kick out of delivering bad news and disappear when it's good, that not providing any value. I don't remember him around much the week of the blizzard in 2016 but a few weeks later when a feb threat was falling apart suddenly he felt we needed his constant analysis of how bad the setup was.  Probability argues the 1963 level is unlikely but I would ratter a less biased messenger. 

Even if a tropical volcano erupts tomorrow, this winter wouldn't be impacted much in the States. Because of that, I vote to move the discussion to banter!

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

There was

I think the discussion in here has been great. Substantive and really interesting looking into every angle of this winter. But I don't think it's died down because if volcano posts. It's still September. Things will ebb and flow as evidence trickles in regarding winter but can't expects it to go hard every day from now until first flakes. It will pick up again as soon as some reason presents itself. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, BTRWx said:

Even if a tropical volcano erupts tomorrow, this winter wouldn't be impacted much in the States. Because of that, I vote to move the discussion to banter!

We (on this board) have a unique and possibly a once in a lifetime chance to see what the impacts of a volcanic eruption in the tropics could mean for our weather. Happening in a location and time of year that could possibly have a very meaningful impact on the Pacific and what looks to be a Nina pattern incoming for the winter. And you want to shelve it, throw it into banter? Why? The winter thread was absolutely dead anyway while this discussion was ongoing, a discussion I might add that was delving into the very real possibility of a wild card being thrown into the mix for our coming winter. Maybe down the road a touch, when we see what type of eruption does occur, we may even want to even create a thread devoted for the sole purpose of watching this event unfold and following any possible impacts that may ensue for our winter. But for now I think it is perfectly fine where it is.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CFS has been on one of its "good runs" lately, especially the January h5 look. Feb not bad either. How many more runs until that west based block morphs into a WAR?

The start to winter (Nov) would be brutal though with winter cancels left and right. December looks like the transitional month. So early crap pattern to a decent one by the end of the month?

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The start to winter (Nov) would be brutal though with winter cancels left and right. December looks like the transitional month. So early crap pattern to a decent one by the end of the month?

It looks like there is a tendency for higher heights around Greenland even early on. I don't even hate the general Dec look- nice EPO ridge, which has been pretty persistent on these runs lately. Even though it looks warmish in our neck of the woods, that could improve for the better in future runs (lol). I guess my takeaway is the most important feature that is likely a requirement for this winter to produce some fun periods in the MA has been showing up- HL blocking. Be interesting to see the new CanSIPS in another week.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It looks like there is a tendency for higher heights around Greenland even early on. I don't even hate the general Dec look- nice EPO ridge, which has been pretty persistent on these runs lately. Even though it looks warmish in our neck of the woods, that could improve for the better in future runs (lol). I guess my takeaway is the most important feature that is likely a requirement for this winter produce some fun periods in the MA has been showing up- HL blocking. Be interesting to see the new CanSIPS in another week.

This is all you really need to see when it comes to January. Huge dome of High pressure over the pole and low pressure just northeast of the 50/50 region. Not that the low pressure is in a hateful position but move it a little southeast and it would be game on. And you can see the beginnings of it when you look at December.

cfs-mon_01_mslpa_nhem_4_75.png

 

 

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

This is all you really need to see when it comes to January. Huge dome of High pressure over the pole and low pressure just northeast of the 50/50 region. Not that the low pressure is in a hateful position but move it a little southeast and it would be game on. And you can see the beginnings of it when you look at December.

cfs-mon_01_mslpa_nhem_4_75.png

 

 

 

Yes, and of course it is the CFS, but I am encouraged to see something that shows pretty much the exact type of pattern we would need to have any success this winter. Now it may all evaporate in a few more model cycles, but at least it is showing up, and the QBO phase/solar cycle supports the blocking idea.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

     I think we're seeing the see-saw pattern of the coming winter already. We've got the trough out west and ridge in the east. The trough is coming east this week and another trough will enter the west coast around this time next week, with a ridge there now along with code red warnings. Typical Nina, of course. The question in my mind is what was mentioned above, namely, whether that ridge to our north moves eastward into a pesky WAR. Don't know, but let's hope not, at least not strong enough to screw up all our chances.

     On a different note, any word on the Keith Allen winter forecast? I thought he usually puts it out on the first day of Fall.

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

On a different note, any word on the Keith Allen winter forecast? I thought he usually puts it out on the first day of Fall.

Per Weather53, at this site: http://www.usmessageboard.com/forums/environment.84/

Temps at DCA
Dec:+ 1 to +2
Jan:+2 to +3
Feb:-2

Thats an overall milder than average but for snow and/or cold lovers no where near as bad as his +5 call for last winter.

Snowfall he predicts 10" for DCA and 15" for suburbs
He believes two ice storms will impact the area
His analog years are 1951-52, 1984-85, 2006-07.
 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Per Weather53, at this site: http://www.usmessageboard.com/forums/environment.84/

Temps at DCA
Dec:+ 1 to +2
Jan:+2 to +3
Feb:-2

Thats an overall milder than average but for snow and/or cold lovers no where near as bad as his +5 call for last winter.

Snowfall he predicts 10" for DCA and 15" for suburbs
He believes two ice storms will impact the area
His analog years are 1951-52, 1984-85, 2006-07.
 

Thanks!

Well, it seems like everyone around here is pretty much on board for a typical NINA winter. I hope that's an omen for a blockbuster!

For giggles, I looked at the 384 hr. GFS off the 6Z run. Look at those BN temps in Siberia. Gotta' believe rapid snowfall in that part of the world is on the way. :weenie:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017092506&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=714

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, WVclimo said:

Per Weather53, at this site: http://www.usmessageboard.com/forums/environment.84/

Temps at DCA
Dec:+ 1 to +2
Jan:+2 to +3
Feb:-2

Thats an overall milder than average but for snow and/or cold lovers no where near as bad as his +5 call for last winter.

Snowfall he predicts 10" for DCA and 15" for suburbs
He believes two ice storms will impact the area
His analog years are 1951-52, 1984-85, 2006-07.
 

His analogs never make any sense. 2 of them aren't even close on enso. Bad PDO match on another. I hate to criticize without knowing his methodology but it's hard when his "analogs" typically disregard the most influential factors we know of. His end result forecast could very well be spot on and I might agree but the road to the destination seems weird. 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

some la nina winters had two great weeks when most of the snowfall fell...the rest of the winter wasn't good...74-75 was like that......Some la nina winters had one cold month between warm ones...84-85 was like that...many that started out cold had a milder February but March reverted back to colder than normal...although 1995-96 had below normal temps all four months...February was the closest to normal...

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted
14 hours ago, uncle W said:

some la nina winters had two great weeks when most of the snowfall fell...the rest of the winter wasn't good...74-75 was like that......Some la nina winters had one cold month between warm ones...84-85 was like that...many that started out cold had a milder February but March reverted back to colder than normal...although 1995-96 had below normal temps all four months...February was the closest to normal...

This description applies to the majority of MA winters regardless of ENSO. lol

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Mason Dixon

Mason Dixon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

An eruption of Mt Agung may now be hours away. Seismic activity yesterday and through mid day today are at unprecedented levels.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/26/bali-volcano-eruption-could-be-hours-away-as-75000-evacuate.html

Expect a post soon from snowman19 stating he spoke to a resident  there who said the tremors are nothing like 1963

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Would the eruption be powerful enough to effect world wide climate?

We don't know....it could be. Odds are that it is too weak to be a large impact, but it is far from a certainty.

 

The 1963 eruption helped cause 1964 to put an annual global temp anomaly of -0.20C...there had not been a colder anomaly since 1935. It also likely caused the warming from the 1965-1966 El Nino to be somewhat muted.

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