Winter 2017-18 Disco

[psuhoffman]

I have very little skill at seasonal forecasting but I did put together some numbers based on current projected pattern drivers.  We have very little skill predicting the NAO/AO so I left that out.  But right now I feel we have at least a decent chance of seeing a -QBO, -PDO, cold enso, winter.  If that is in fact what we end up with the following years fall into that category.  Obviously there is a large spread within the list and some are better matches then others but since we don't know the exact values we are looking at for all 3 variables I just included them all.  In general hope for the PDO to end up near neutral and a -NAO.  That could work out.  If the NAO is positive and the PDO tanks were looking at an ugly winter.  There were a few years in the dataset with early snowfall in November or early December.  Most of those years flipped warm after that though so don't assume an early start to winter will lock in.  But the years without early snow tended to be ugly.  Last thing that stuck out, the last several years were pretty bad so if we are factoring in possible climate shifts and pattern trends that is definitely not good.  I am not sure that means anything but perhaps.   This is obviously not a forecast but I think looking at the full range gives us a pretty good idea what the goal posts are this winter.  Notice were definitely lacking any blockbuster winters...

I used IAD/DCA/BWI official records.  For Carroll County I used my own personal records for years I was here, and before that I used coop data from either Manchester or Westminster.  For Martinsburg I used the airport for years it was available and the closest reliable coop data for years it was not.  Obviously those records are not as accurate but still gives us a pretty good idea.  The year is for the January of that winter.  So 1950 is the winter of 1949-50. 

 

year	IAD	BWI	DCA	Carroll Cnty	MRG
1950		0.7	3.4	2.5	8
1951		6.2	10.2	21.5	10.5
1957		15.4	14.2	22.5	10.7
1963	20.6	19.6	21.4	43.5	38.2
1965	16.3	18.6	17.1	35.3	21.3
1968	30.5	23.4	21.4	33.7	39.9
1971	19.6	13	11.4	39	34
1975	17.8	12.2	12.8	26.8	22.9
1989	9.9	9	5.7	13.3	10.5
2008	6.5	8.5	4.9	18	8.8
2012	3.7	1.8	2	19.5	2.8
2013	12.7	8.0	3.1	32.7	25.5
avg	15.3	11.4	10.6	25.7	19.4

[showmethesnow]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The one consensus so far among all the climate models is a weak to moderate La Niña winter that is northern branch dominated. No split flow, non existent southern stream, so typical La Niña climo 

No arguments on my end. Just about everything that i have seen points to a Nina and a typical Nina type pattern. I will say I think I have seen the barest hints of a split flow, but Chill, you, as well as others see nothing so I am on an island. And to be honest with myself I am probably looking through rose colored glasses in that regards just because I am desperately seeking something that may indicate a deviation from a typical Nina. 

[showmethesnow]

On 9/17/2017 at 11:04 AM, Bob Chill said:

The backyard aspect is paramount here. I want to kick puppies every time wnwxluvr says 12-13 was ok.  Lol. I can't blame him and nobody can blame me. It's part of the "fun" we have living in the MA. 

My yard is usually somewhere in the middle of win and fail gradient events. I get enough to not want to kill small animals but never nearly enough to want to disrobe.

 

And for that you have our eternal gratitude. 

[BristowWx]

Not sure Xmas could be any worse than last year.  50 and cloudy would be a win.  Cold dry ok too.  Sunny and 70 will bring a tear to my eye.  

[BTRWx]

59 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure Xmas could be any worse than last year.  50 and cloudy would be a win.  Cold dry ok too.  Sunny and 70 will bring a tear to my eye.  

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

No arguments on my end. Just about everything that i have seen points to a Nina and a typical Nina type pattern. I will say I think I have seen the barest hints of a split flow, but Chill, you, as well as others see nothing so I am on an island in that regard. And to be honest with myself I am probably looking through rose colored glasses in that regards just because I am desperately seeking something that may indicate a deviation from a typical Nina. 

We can do OK with a weak Nina as well. There will be jumpers so we miss the big stuff. But we can still sometimes score a couple inches on the front end thump before the jump. Obviously that works out better for us out here than those of you to the east. 

And I still think we have a real chance of a Neutral winter at this point as well. Those are much better for everybody.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We can do OK with a weak Nina as well. There will be jumpers so we miss the big stuff. But we can still sometimes score a couple inches on the front end thump before the jump. Obviously that works out better for us out here than those of you to the east. 

And I still think we have a real chance of a Neutral winter at this point as well. Those are much better for everybody.

Hoping the worst we see is a weak Nina though Mitch did throw up numbers that suggested we do better in a moderate. Give me a cold neutral and I will be happy.

[CAPE]

Hanging my hat on the QBO. Rapidly shifting to the negative phase as we move into fall. Like 2009. HL blocking galore for Dec-Feb. Need ESNO and PDO to not be completely hostile and we have a chance.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think neutral is out the window.  I think the stats PSU provided shows there can be opportunity.  I'd be interested in knowing the biggest event in the years he posted.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think neutral is out the window.  I think the stats PSU provided shows there can be opportunity.  I'd be interested in knowing the biggest event in the years he posted.  

I can look up specifics tomorrow. I'm done for today. Long couple days. I'm beat. But just off memory when compiling the data there were a lot of moderate events. 4-8" type deals. A few 6-12" storms especially in the nw zones. But no HECS level events. Those are probably a long shot this year.  I'm also going to dig more into what the specific differences were that lead to some of the not so bad years in that set vs the total duds. 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think neutral is out the window.  I think the stats PSU provided shows there can be opportunity.  I'd be interested in knowing the biggest event in the years he posted.  

I think I'd rather not know.  Lol

It all comes down to the extent of blocking. We've got the best combo for it with the near dormant sun and E QBO. I will say that medium range 5H maps look like one big sinus infection with all the blockage around the Pole.  Hopefully, it's a sign of the future and not a tease. But the progs for Jose and Maria confirm in my peanut weenie mind that the blocking in place now is real. Might be time to throw in tropical analogs into the equation for the winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think I'd rather not know.  Lol

It all comes down to the extent of blocking. We've got the best combo for it with the near dormant sun and E QBO. I will say that medium range 5H maps look like one big sinus infection with all the blockage around the Pole.  Hopefully, it's a sign of the future and not a tease. But the progs for Jose and Maria confirm in my peanut weenie mind that the blocking in place now is real. Might be time to throw in tropical analogs into the equation for the winter.

I like your thinking.  The reason I was curious about the biggest event is that, IMO, if you can get those totals without one big event, you'd have a good winter.

I'd have to look at the past two snow total threads to know for certain, but I think 15-16 without the big snow I had about 3", and last year without the March event, about the same.  That's why I hated both of those years.  There was little "winterwx", lol.

[Bob Chill]

I can probably speak for the whole forum and say I'd be 100% satisfied if I hit climo spread over 6 events over 2" with each month having at least two 2"+ events. That sounds even better now that I typed it. My climo is around 22" give or take. 

[WVclimo]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think neutral is out the window.  I think the stats PSU provided shows there can be opportunity.  I'd be interested in knowing the biggest event in the years he posted.  

In reverse order for our area.  The recent stats (post 2006) were my measurements and the others are from MRB:

2012-13: a wintry week in December with snowfalls of 2", 5.7" and 2.0" from 12/24 through 12/30, and two 4" snowfalls in March (3/5-6 and 3/25-26)

2011-12: the 4" at the end of October was the largest snowfall.  I finished with 8.5" for the season which is higher than the COOP PSU used

2007-08: largest was  3.3" on 1/18

1988-89: largest was 3" on 3/6-7

1974-75: a 5" snowfall on 1/6 and a 7" snow on 2/6.  Also 3" on 3/14

1970-71: one of my favorite snowstorms ever on 12/31-1/1; 12.3" at MRB.  More March snows: 4" on 3/3, 3" on 3/19

1967-68: great winter wall-to-wall with an inch on 11/21, 8" on 11/30, 9" on 12/28, 4.4" on 12/31, 6" on 2/29-3/1 and 10" on 3/12

1964-65: a 9" storm on 1/10, and 7" on 3/17

1962-63: another great holiday week with 6" on 12/21, 5" on 12/25 and 5" on 12/29.  Another 5" on 1/26-27, 7" on 2/12 and 4" on 2/19

1956-57: a light snowfall of 4" over 3 days from 1/13-15

1950-51: 5.8" on 12/10-11

1949-50:  3" on 3/16, and 3.2" on 3/22-23

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I can probably speak for the whole forum and say I'd be 100% satisfied if I hit climo spread over 6 events over 2" with each month having at least two 2"+ events. That sounds even better now that I typed it. My climo is around 22" give or take. 

I'll take whatever you want to give.

[showmethesnow]

On 9/17/2017 at 10:54 AM, mitchnick said:

That and where the poster lives. Folks near, and especially north, of the Mason Dixon line do incredibly better in a Nina than those of us from Baltimore on south. In fact, the term 40N was coined with Nina's in mind.

Maybe north of the Mason Dixon east of 83, if not farther east more towards Philly, does better as they can pick up the tail end of Miller B's but once you get west of there we are for the most part SOL unless you are talking north of Harrisburg. About the only benefit we have here in Hanover is a few degrees colder because of latitude and better elevation then the coastal plain but we have that every winter irregardless of ENSO state.

[showmethesnow]

15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I have very little skill at seasonal forecasting but I did put together some numbers based on current projected pattern drivers.  We have very little skill predicting the NAO/AO so I left that out.  But right now I feel we have at least a decent chance of seeing a -QBO, -PDO, cold enso, winter.  If that is in fact what we end up with the following years fall into that category.  Obviously there is a large spread within the list and some are better matches then others but since we don't know the exact values we are looking at for all 3 variables I just included them all.  In general hope for the PDO to end up near neutral and a -NAO.  That could work out.  If the NAO is positive and the PDO tanks were looking at an ugly winter.  There were a few years in the dataset with early snowfall in November or early December.  Most of those years flipped warm after that though so don't assume an early start to winter will lock in.  But the years without early snow tended to be ugly.  Last thing that stuck out, the last several years were pretty bad so if we are factoring in possible climate shifts and pattern trends that is definitely not good.  I am not sure that means anything but perhaps.   This is obviously not a forecast but I think looking at the full range gives us a pretty good idea what the goal posts are this winter.  Notice were definitely lacking any blockbuster winters...

I used IAD/DCA/BWI official records.  For Carroll County I used my own personal records for years I was here, and before that I used coop data from either Manchester or Westminster.  For Martinsburg I used the airport for years it was available and the closest reliable coop data for years it was not.  Obviously those records are not as accurate but still gives us a pretty good idea.  The year is for the January of that winter.  So 1950 is the winter of 1949-50. 

 

year	IAD	BWI	DCA	Carroll Cnty	MRG
1950		0.7	3.4	2.5	8
1951		6.2	10.2	21.5	10.5
1957		15.4	14.2	22.5	10.7
1963	20.6	19.6	21.4	43.5	38.2
1965	16.3	18.6	17.1	35.3	21.3
1968	30.5	23.4	21.4	33.7	39.9
1971	19.6	13	11.4	39	34
1975	17.8	12.2	12.8	26.8	22.9
1989	9.9	9	5.7	13.3	10.5
2008	6.5	8.5	4.9	18	8.8
2012	3.7	1.8	2	19.5	2.8
2013	12.7	8.0	3.1	32.7	25.5
avg	15.3	11.4	10.6	25.7	19.4

I am guessing the personal numbers for Carroll County were taken on top of Mount PSU? If so that may be giving unrealistic expectations for those that live in the low lands around you.  You didn't actually have a breakdown of the different indices and their values that you could throw up quickly by chance? If not, don't bother spending the time.

Am I correct that this chart reflects all recent -QBO, -PDO, cold enso, winters? Climate change aside, I look at your numbers and though limited on the data set and region I see a somewhat cyclic pattern to it (decadal-multidecadal?) though this could be nothing more then chance. If indeed this is a cycle I have to wonder if there is another long term driver we are not taking into account. Did you by chance compare solar to these numbers? You left the NAO and the AO out so I am assuming you saw no relationship between the higher/lower snowfalls and those indices? 

[showmethesnow]

11 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hanging my hat on the QBO. Rapidly shifting to the negative phase as we move into fall. Like 2009. HL blocking galore for Dec-Feb. Need ESNO and PDO to not be completely hostile and we have a chance.

Same here. Don't know squat about it but I will hang my hat on it being the savior for this winter irregardless. 

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe north of the Mason Dixon east of 83, if not farther east more towards Philly, does better as they can pick up the tail end of Miller B's but once you get west of there we are for the most part SOL unless you are talking north of Harrisburg. About the only benefit we have here in Hanover is a few degrees colder because of latitude and better elevation then the coastal plain but we have that every winter irregardless of ENSO state.

Actually bud, you have to go notably East of 83, as I've spent 48 years watching late blooming Miller B's redevelop and hit eastern Berks and points north and east.  Lancaster county is truely a " jip zone".  Thats why play in this forum as we really arent true central Pa from a climo perspective.  Look at typical climo snow for us....

I realize that 40N means something, but more times than not sitting at 40.156 amounts to about .156" of snow for us with Miller B's.

In a zonal pattern....sure we all will take every .1 of latitude gain we can.....Miller B's are just painful for many....including me.

Looking forward to seeing how it unfolds all the same. 

Nut

[showmethesnow]

15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Actually bud, you have to go notably East of 83, as I've spent 48 years watching late blooming Miller B's redevelop and hit eastern Berks and points north and east.  Lancaster county is truely a " jip zone".  Thats why play in this forum as we really arent true central Pa from a climo perspective.  Look at typical climo snow for us....

I realize that 40N means something, but more times than not sitting at 40.156 amounts to about .156" of snow for us with Miller B's.

In a zonal pattern....sure we all will take every .1 of latitude gain we can.....Miller B's are just painful for many....including me.

Looking forward to seeing how it unfolds all the same. 

Nut

In the 13 years I have lived in Hanover I have probably seen maybe a handful of Miller B's that scraped just to east of my location by 25-50 miles so that was my reference to 83 east towards Philly. Can't think of a single time here though that when we received some Miller B loving that at the least central/northern MD didn't partake in the fun. 

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

In the 13 years I have lived in Hanover I have probably seen maybe a handful of Miller B's that scraped just to east of my location by 25-50 miles so that was my reference to 83 east towards Philly. Can't think of a single time here though that when we received some Miller B loving that at the least central/northern MD didn't partake in the fun. 

Actually Philly to Allentown get into the goods, as we are typically right on the westward boundary of any appreciable precip (which usually is just flurries/pixie dust). I'm ok with what were seeing right now, but feel that if we dont get blocking this year i think any that visit this regional forum are going to all be in one big ugly boat.....as miller B's would be late blooming SNE scrapers.  IF we can get the PNA to be + I'd be fine w/ northern stream clippings on a regular basis (although i typically do horribly with them- like most of this forum does-save Western locals), but with some good timing and we all can play a little.  Lotsa little stuff is ok in my book.  

Nut

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I can probably speak for the whole forum and say I'd be 100% satisfied if I hit climo spread over 6 events over 2" with each month having at least two 2"+ events. That sounds even better now that I typed it. My climo is around 22" give or take. 

Yes, those are fun winters.  Cold, multiple snows, snow on the ground.

I for one don't need a blizzard to be happy.  Just cold with frequent events whether they be snow, ice, front end to slop, etc.

Probably shouldn't say it but ............ just keep the SER in check.....just enough to help with storm track but weak enough to allow for some CAD or maybe an e-w cold boundary just to our south.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

In the 13 years I have lived in Hanover I have probably seen maybe a handful of Miller B's that scraped just to east of my location by 25-50 miles so that was my reference to 83 east towards Philly. Can't think of a single time here though that when we received some Miller B loving that at the least central/northern MD didn't partake in the fun. 

Even though I am further south, I sometimes do decently on the SW side of a Miller B type deal because I am closer to the coast. Even though it was still a semi-bust here, I managed about 5" from the Dec 2010 storm that shall not be mentioned in this sub forum.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I am guessing the personal numbers for Carroll County were taken on top of Mount PSU? If so that may be giving unrealistic expectations for those that live in the low lands around you.  You didn't actually have a breakdown of the different indices and their values that you could throw up quickly by chance? If not, don't bother spending the time.

Am I correct that this chart reflects all recent -QBO, -PDO, cold enso, winters? Climate change aside, I look at your numbers and though limited on the data set and region I see a somewhat cyclic pattern to it (decadal-multidecadal?) though this could be nothing more then chance. If indeed this is a cycle I have to wonder if there is another long term driver we are not taking into account. Did you by chance compare solar to these numbers? You left the NAO and the AO out so I am assuming you saw no relationship between the higher/lower snowfalls and those indices? 

I just began compiling data and threw that up as a very broad "these are the goalposts" type thing. I will post the specific values and some more analysis of what other factors, including solar, do to the probabilities. The AO/nao does matter but our ability to predict that is way less then those other indices I decided to use for my initial list. But I think the fact that we have never had a top end good snowfall year or HECS in a year with a similar PDO/QBO/ENSO combo regardless of nao or solar tells us something. Basically our goalposts are between "god awful" and "average" with very little chance of a save from one HECS. However, I agree with others that if we get an "average" winter from a bunch of small to moderate events that would be a win and feel like a real winter. So it's not hopeless. But this was simply my attempt at a first early look at the data and set the parameters. I'll take a deeper look of course and post more. 

[showmethesnow]

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Even though I am further south, I sometimes do decently on the SW side of a Miller B type deal because I am closer to the coast. Even though it was still a semi-bust here, I managed about 5" from the Dec 2010 storm that shall not be mentioned in this sub forum.

My memory isn't the greatest but wasn't that the one the models were showing 1 to 2 feet through the whole area and DC/Balt north and west were lucky to see a couple of inches? 

[showmethesnow]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just began compiling data and threw that up as a very broad "these are the goalposts" type thing. I will post the specific values and some more analysis of what other factors, including solar, do to the probabilities. The AO/nao does matter but our ability to predict that is way less then those other indices I decided to use for my initial list. But I think the fact that we have never had a top end good snowfall year or HECS in a year with a similar PDO/QBO/ENSO combo regardless of nao or solar tells us something. Basically our goalposts are between "god awful" and "average" with very little chance of a save from one HECS. However, I agree with others that if we get an "average" winter from a bunch of small to moderate events that would be a win and feel like a real winter. So it's not hopeless. But this was simply my attempt at a first early look at the data and set the parameters. I'll take a deeper look of course and post more. 

Missed that on your original post. I would have thought the NAO/AO would play a big part. If I recall correctly there is a strong correlation between low solar and NAO/AO so maybe we have that going for us. Of course watch we get a flare up late fall/early winter to botch things up for us.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Missed that on your original post. I would have thought the NAO/AO would play a big part. If I recall correctly there is a strong correlation between low solar and NAO/AO so maybe we have that going for us. Of course watch we get a flare up late fall/early winter to botch things up for us.

In general yes but 2008 bothers me. It's was low solar and -QBO and it sucked.  First glance makes me feel there is something else missing that flips some of these years ok vs awful. 

[showmethesnow]

51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes, those are fun winters.  Cold, multiple snows, snow on the ground.

I for one don't need a blizzard to be happy.  Just cold with frequent events whether they be snow, ice, front end to slop, etc.

Probably shouldn't say it but ............ just keep the SER in check.....just enough to help with storm track but weak enough to allow for some CAD or maybe an e-w cold boundary just to our south.

I'm with you. The one hit wonders leave a sour taste in my mouth. Give me wall to wall winter with small to moderate events and I will be perfectly happy. Of course I wouldn't throw out a wall to wall winter with a HEC or two thrown in. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

In general yes but 2008 bothers me. It's was low solar and -QBO and it sucked. 

Don't really follow solar so i may be off on this but wasn't there a brief flareup of the sun leading into the 2008 winter? Might have to go back and check on that in a little.

[Bob Chill]

We're all being kinda silly with the winner/loser miller B talk. I mean yea, it could easily be part of our season but when I look at the seasonals all I see is ridging to our NE during DJ. We might be getting a bit ahead of ourselves. It's a rare day when a miller b hits hard without a fairly stout block. Of course we're all rooting for blocking but that piece of the puzzle won't come into focus until close to Dec.