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March Banter Thread


North Balti Zen

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Thanks. I am trying to quietly follow the discussions and I am looking for the waves that the models are discussing so I can visualize it.

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In this case the longwave pattern is set and we are getting a coastal storm. Now we are just trying to figure out how the wave coming in from the midwest will interact with the wave over the southeast atlantic coast to maximize qpf and maintain good thermal profiles.


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In this case the longwave pattern is set and we are getting a coastal storm. Now we are just trying to figure out how the wave coming in from the midwest will interact with the wave over the southeast atlantic coast to maximize qpf and maintain good thermal profiles.


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Got it. Thank you!

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2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

I am not sure in the new thread, but in the now locked thread Roger Smith gets the worst last post. It might as well be written in Chinese. 

Not even close! :P

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From Bob Chill

"My biggest worry the whole time has been a mostly rain storm. My second biggest worry was weak sauce rates in general. You know I want a bomb like everyone else. But if we've had every med range bomb verify our climo maps would need to be re-written. They tame down in the short range quite often. 

0z is the official kickoff to the short range. I like what I see right now. My yard may actually survive a disaster. Hopefully tomorrow things juice back up we get the better of both worlds. A cold snowstorm in mid march. The storm is currently progged to move to fast for anyone anywhere to get a historic storm except maybe a small area or too."

 

"Short range" -- so I guess I need to worry about the NAM this evening.  Was expecting a stress free evening until 11. 

Everyone has a lead time at which they they feel giddy and confident that snow is on its way.   Mine is 60 hours with a big inertia-filled storm like this one. 

The SREFs will likely be retired soon too.  No loss. Guess we will loss our early insight into the direction the NAM is likely to lead.  Why is that important again (sorry Buddy couldn't resist). 

Glad that the forecast office pulled the trigger on the WSW.  Wonder if the timing was moved up ~6 hours because of Mt. Holly's decision earlier today or because of the 18 UT GFS. 

Sadly, we may not be invited to picnic at PSU's.  At least until late March. 

... and not that anyone's asking, but I'm still glad I went chasing cold/snow last week in Vermont.  -6F was the coldest I've experienced in a while.  The nordic backcountry accessible from Bolton Valley is a winter wonderland. 

 

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In this specific case the nam probably won't be useful until 0z tomorrow. It's a complicated evolution where any early errors magnify quickly. And the nam is good at that. I will say if the nam does show a good track tonight or tomorrow its probably going to be yuuuuuge

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