PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, mappy said: I hate the NAM talk too For some reason the analysis of it is especially bad. Some weenies seem obsessed with it, though. They refuse to let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Thinking about making NAM post 48 hours banter talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Same here.... I just hope any mixing is brief. If the storm delivers Monday night, and if I fall asleep, I'm expecting to be woken up by pinging on the windows at 1AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 hours ago, Bob Chill said: My least favorite hour when tracking a big event is the hour between the end of the nam and the start of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: For some reason the analysis of it is especially bad. Some weenies seem obsessed with it, though. They refuse to let it go. If you start a post with, "I know it's the NAM but...." then don't bother analyzing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: We get dudes like you here every winter. You did OK this winter with the negative routine because the winter sucked. Next good winter you'll be suspended before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Let's spend the next hour analyzing every angle of the past three NAM runs looking for subtle changes. It's like heading to Chuck-E-Cheese on a Saturday afternoon looking for a quiet place to read a book. Wrong approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's even more fun because there are like 4 different NAMs at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Let's spend the next hour analyzing every angle of the past three NAM runs looking for subtle changes. It's like heading to Chuck-E-Cheese on a Saturday afternoon looking for a quiet place to read a book. Wrong approach. I prefer to do my reading at Hooters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: For some reason the analysis of it is especially bad. Some weenies seem obsessed with it, though. They refuse to let it go. Yup. Some do not understand that outside 48hrs it shouldn't be analyzed too much. But every 6 hours we deal with it. 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thinking about making NAM post 48 hours banter talk Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thinking about making NAM post 48 hours banter talk Please do. When it's the only thing running it's too tempting not to look at and comment on. That said, some seem far too confident about this event. We're still 2.5 days out......lots can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This is going to be a fun storm to CHASE. EXTREMELY SHARP GRADIENT! Don't wait. Reposition yourself NOW, especially if you live east of I-81 like me. LaPlata = mostly rain, couple inches of rainfall. Dale City - will see a dusting to half of an inch. Massive, epic mixing, could also see sleet accums but likely just a slushy white rain, even on Monday night/early Tue morning, because mid 30s at the surface. Lots snow tv, little accumulation, although we could score a squall Tuesday night. Lots of easterly warm air at 850 MB. Reposition, reposition, reposition accordingly!!! Manassas - 2-4 inches of snow, some mixing issues. BE GLAD you don't live in Dale City, lol. Reposition accordingly. Dulles - Winter wonderland, mostly snow, 6-9 inches. Decent place to live. I-81 - Buy at least twenty Jebman shovels, massive HECS, 9-16 inches of snow. Cold Smoke. Central and North MD and points northeast - You guys are going to get demolished, over a foot of fresh snow, possibly much more. You know where to find me. You need an intervention, there is no way in hell you can handle digging this much snow. SNE you guessed it, full capture. use your imagination. Weatherfella will be begging for help digging out, which will take him until Thanksgiving, because he is so old, dilapidated and washed up lmao. Reaper will be busy Monday night/Tuesday. Get LOTS of sleep, in fact, try to sleep Sunday thru Monday Reaper. You're gonna need it. If you need help digging graves - You know where to find me. BTW - I CANT chase this. I'll enjoy my epic mixing! Hey, it could be worse, I could be looking at a total shutout, zero snow on the season with this epic neutral ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 No changes in the GFS through 0hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hour 6 on the 12z GFS looks to be 100 miles northwest. Storm canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 What does your gut say on this with guidance as of now. let's pick a location, say DCA. Here is mine 10% Chance of HECS with 10+ inches 40% Chance of complete fail with all rain 25% of 2-4 inches with lots of sleet, and rain washing lots away 25% 4-8 inches with lots of sleet. Solid MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 38 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i'd happily take this NAM run. Yup. But not the parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm a terrible person. If I don't get snow, I hope none of you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: I'm a terrible person. If I don't get snow, I hope none of you do. The real killer will be if our area is screwed while we watch the storm bomb to our north and paste PHL-BOS with 1-2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 No offense to all of you, but I'm really glad I'm going back to State College tomorrow Edit: Good luck with the r/s line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Thinking about making NAM post 48 hours banter talk Probably a good call, Sheriff Beethoven! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Well the GFS is weaksauce with the QPF for NoVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Its good! Its bad! The initial weenie analysis is a dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The way some people are disappointed makes me think they've had a great winter. I'm sitting on 1.25" for the year. I don't need a foot of snow on Tuesday for this to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Lowered expectations... Not fun. Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Writing is on the wall. We dont do complex well. DC is going to get snow tv, central MD maybe 2-4. PA line and NE 6". First guess. One thing that is becoming more certain is marginal surface temperatures. This isn't going to be a Feb 10 2010. The gradient on the GFS snow map wont happen. That finger of 10-12" is not reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Unlike fine wine, this place doesn't get better with age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 We have some really awful posters here - some of which are normally not that bad or even decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.