showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 9:59 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I mentioned this early on. Pay attention! ;p Expand Keep banter in the banter thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I am not one to pay much attention to snow maps, but the 850s and surface are colder this run, yet snowfall for mby is about the same or a tad worse on TT. I will have to go on weatherbell and check 700 and 925 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Best part of the run is that it is now once again throwing 1+ qpf region wide again. With 1.25 through the cities. Can't complain about this run whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Pivotal Weather has been really slow today... thats where I generally get my point-n-click soundings... is there another good source for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So many pinkied posts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:03 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I am not one to pay much attention to snow maps, but the 850s and surface are colder this run, yet snowfall for mby is about the same or a tad worse on TT. I will have to go on weatherbell and check 700 and 925 mb temps. Expand I keep forgetting that you are fighting the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:06 PM, showmethesnow said: I keep forgetting that you are fighting the temps. Expand Its going to be a battle here. But surface is 32-34 and 850 0c line stays south of me this run per TT. Low track is much better for here. QPF is fine, so kinda weird no increase in snow accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Storm gets its act together much quicker then we see on the 12Z run. 10+ inches are now shown well south and west of DC into central VA with the Kuchera algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Interesting. No issues this run from 850 mb on up for mby. There is a 6 hr period where depicted surface temp is 34-35, and even tho rates appear to be good at that time, its apparently rain. At 12z, 850s went above freezing for a time, surface was maybe a degree cooler and the snow clown map was better here. Never really analyzed it before but when working with a razor thin margin I had a reason to lol, and its interesting to kind of verify that these snow maps are not to be taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18z sure made a few people look silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 What exactly is the Kuchera algorithm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:34 PM, leesburg 04 said: 18z sure made a few people look silly Expand 0z is gonna be YUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:29 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Interesting. No issues this run from 850 mb on up for mby. There is a 6 hr period where depicted surface temp is 34-35, and even tho rates appear to be good at that time, its apparently rain. At 12z, 850s went above freezing for a time, surface was maybe a degree cooler and the snow clown map was better here. Never really analyzed it before but when working with a razor thin margin I had a reason to lol, and its interesting to kind of verify that these snow maps are not to be taken literally. Expand I remember those days of riding the rain/snow line. And it sucked. Now where I live I am not so much concerned about that as of getting fringed with much lighter qpf. Doesn't help that I also have a shadowing effect from the hills around me that mimic somewhat Frederick. I guess we all have our different crosses to bear when it comes to getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:35 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: What exactly is the Kuchera algorithm? Expand Takes in account ratios unlike the others that are based on a 10 to 1 ratio. More accurate especially somewhat away from the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:35 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: What exactly is the Kuchera algorithm? Expand I don't know but I freaking love it for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:38 PM, showmethesnow said: I remember those days of riding the rain/snow line. And it sucked. Now where I live I am not so much concerned about that as of getting fringed with much lighter qpf. Doesn't help that I also have a shadowing effect from the hills around me that mimic somewhat Frederick. I guess we all have our different crosses to bear when it comes to getting snow. Expand Yup. Thus why I liked this weekends threat that just didn't work out. Colder air-mass, blocking, 50-50 low... much more conducive to getting a snow event here than a big coastal with marginal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:34 PM, leesburg 04 said: 18z sure made a few people look silly Expand I wonder why Eskimo Joe is back after that embarrassing meltdown over the NAM? He said we were done...shouldn't he have signed off by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:47 PM, stormtracker said: I wonder why Eskimo Joe is back after that embarrassing meltdown over the NAM? He said we were done...shouldn't he have signed off by now? Expand Some people are tripolar on here. The ones on here who only want 12-18" have to know how goofy they look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:52 PM, wxtrix said: use The Force, Luke... why let disruptive posters keep crapping up the main thread? Expand The Force is strong with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Even a huge improvement in the 18Z GFS still pretty much nada in SW Virginia. Good times...Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Let me start this by saying I don't want this to be a debate of WSW, etc...it doesn't make a difference in terms of the storm, but I'm curious why offices north of here where the storm would be later issued one. Are they too early or is LWX late. Just seems odd. I think it's a little early myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:02 PM, stormtracker said: Let me start this by saying I don't want this to be a debate of WSW, etc...it doesn't make a difference in terms of the storm, but I'm curious why offices north of here where the storm would be later issued one. Are they too early or is LWX late. Just seems odd. I think it's a little early myself. Expand I think they're early honestly. Also way too early for including the amounts in their blizzard watches. I think LWX is being reasonable with their plan of tonight and warnings tomorrow/night if warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:04 PM, nj2va said: I think they're early honestly. Also way too early for including the amounts in their blizzard watches. I think LWX is being reasonable with their plan of tonight and warnings tomorrow/night if warranted. Expand Strongly agree... I could understand the Philly office, but almost all of the SNE offices went ahead and issued WSWs or BWs... which is way early to me. I thought the rule was 48 hrs in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:02 PM, stormtracker said: Let me start this by saying I don't want this to be a debate of WSW, etc...it doesn't make a difference in terms of the storm, but I'm curious why offices north of here where the storm would be later issued one. Are they too early or is LWX late. Just seems odd. I think it's a little early myself. Expand Yeah, I saw that and was a bit surprised at how fast and early they went up. Basically Philly north has issued watches (even blizzard watches up toward Boston). Then again, isn't the time window for issuing a winter storm/blizzard watch upwards of 72 hours in advance, depending on confidence of the event? When did LWX issue the blizzard watch here last January, I think that was close to 3 days out? Of course, that was a very high confidence storm relatively speaking. Someone mentioned LWX did state in their discussion that they'll likely issue watches later tonight; I'd guess a later time due to more uncertainty here compared to Philly up to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:02 PM, stormtracker said: Let me start this by saying I don't want this to be a debate of WSW, etc...it doesn't make a difference in terms of the storm, but I'm curious why offices north of here where the storm would be later issued one. Are they too early or is LWX late. Just seems odd. I think it's a little early myself. Expand Shouldn't this be in the main thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:02 PM, stormtracker said: Let me start this by saying I don't want this to be a debate of WSW, etc...it doesn't make a difference in terms of the storm, but I'm curious why offices north of here where the storm would be later issued one. Are they too early or is LWX late. Just seems odd. I think it's a little early myself. Expand Seems early. Tomorrow evening is fine. Folks won't pay much mind until Monday anyway. LWX will be skittish on this one, though. Some of them are posting here and you can see it already. There will be a ton of caveats about mixing keeping totals way down. Local stations will be even worse. Some may say plain rain "at the the height of the storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:08 PM, leesburg 04 said: Shouldn't this be in the main thread? Expand It would derail the thread... though we do have like 2.5 hours to waste till 00z NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:08 PM, leesburg 04 said: Shouldn't this be in the main thread? Expand Hush you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:10 PM, stormtracker said: Hush you Expand Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:09 PM, yoda said: It would derail the thread... though we do have like 2.5 hours to waste till 00z NAM lol Expand I would love to see the 00Z NAM come on board with a track/thermals like the GFS and finally give everyone a classic NAM-ing...you know, 12-18" along I-95 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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