MillvilleWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has a 1" qpf bullseye over the blue ridge between 0-6z and a .5 bullseye over Columbia between 6z-12. Most everyone gets .50 during the panels. My yard looks like around .7 Snow jackpot along catoctins and northern tier but could easily be 2" of potatoes in the md burbs if it breaks right. Temps in the low to mid 30's for most of us between 6z-12z I'm on my phone so I can't post panels. I'll give you a hand Bob. Here you go @psuhoffman 6z Sun 12z Sun Total Precip from event (Rain/Snow) Most falls between 3-15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Thanks Mill. Good agreement now in general with localized maxes in excess of .75". Exact locations are going to be tricky. Hopefully the hrrr starts painting my house with 1"qpf soon. Lol Its a shame that the surface is so warm leading in. Midlevels start cooperating around 10pm-midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just another miss to remind us how bad this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Thanks Mill. Good agreement now in general with localized maxes in excess of .75". Exact locations are going to be tricky. Hopefully the hrrr starts painting my house with 1"qpf soon. Lol Its a shame that the surface is so warm leading in. Midlevels start cooperating around 10pm-midnight. Agreed. Someone in the northern tier will see a sneaky few inches I'm thinking. I like losetoa/psu/High Stakes for the best spots to get those totals. Wouldn't be shocking though if areas toward Frederick down into NW Moco get a couple inches as well pending banding. It'll be a nice event. Might actually wake up for it since I have work in the AM anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 As always, I appreciate the shared thoughts of, and learned a lot this winter from, @Bob Chill, @psuhoffman and the usual players. But right now (on an admittedly gorgeous 63 degree afternoon), I'm increasingly in the mindset of @mattie g -- more than ready to move onto spring and some severe tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: As always, I appreciate the shared thoughts of, and learned a lot this winter from, @Bob Chill, @psuhoffman and the usual players. But right now (on an admittedly gorgeous 63 degree afternoon), I'm increasingly in the mindset of @mattie g -- more than ready to move onto spring and some severe tracking. I won't mind a warmup. I got my one decent event. Got to build a snowman and go sledding with my son. Now if spring wants to come I can roll with that. But I can't control the weather and if it might snow might as well track and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I won't mind a warmup. I got my one decent event. Got to build a snowman and go sledding with my son. Now if spring wants to come I can roll with that. But I can't control the weather and if it might snow might as well track and enjoy it. I hear you. Still love the snow, always will, but we just don't enjoy the extended chances down here in S/E-of-95-land that you guys usually typically do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: I hear you. Still love the snow, always will, but we just don't enjoy the extended chances down here in S/E-of-95-land that you guys usually typically do. That's part of the reason I live up here. That and the view and the cool breeze in summer when the city is 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I dig mild days (55-70) but I never want to rush into 70 dews and upper 80 highs. I will never grow to like dripping sweat when doing just light duty jobs outside let alone a real project. I love working outside around my house. I love working on my cars. I hate doing either when I can't see through the saltwater burning my eyes and making my shorts stick to my legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Taking a look a bit more in depth at the high res guidance this afternoon, 12z 3km NAM is doing the best with the handling of the 2m temp forecast, but maybe a touch too low still. HRRR is not initializing well at all and is running too cold for areas to the north of I-70 based on current obs. That being said, the 3km NAM and HRRR are representative of the radar so far and have been handling the setup well. 3km NAM and HRRR, despite the temp differences, have similar timing to the transition period occurring around 12-1am for our northern tier down to around 4-5am for the DC Metro. The system should produce a nice area convection on the east side of the Blue Ridge in a few hours with a band of showers/storms likely heading east across Northern and Central VA. So far, models are doing a decent job with the convection and precip placement, but a little too aggressive with the cold air. Could be something to watch later and see if they trend back on the transition from rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I dig mild days (55-70) but I never want to rush into 70 dews and upper 80 highs. I will never grow to like dripping sweat when doing just light duty jobs outside let alone a real project. I love working outside around my house. I love working on my cars. I hate doing either when I can't see through the saltwater burning my eyes and making my shorts stick to my legs. Agree. I hate the high dews. The good news is that if the Niño comes as advertised, summer should be tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I can't wait until Thanksgiving...wish I could fast forward. Anything that extends winter I am all for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I'd fast forward to football season if I could not age another year in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I can't wait until Thanksgiving...wish I could fast forward. Anything that extends winter I am all for. And miss tropical season?Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I dig mild days (55-70) but I never want to rush into 70 dews and upper 80 highs. I will never grow to like dripping sweat when doing just light duty jobs outside let alone a real project. I love working outside around my house. I love working on my cars. I hate doing either when I can't see through the saltwater burning my eyes and making my shorts stick to my legs. I think this is where my being from Louisiana really helps out. 70 degree dews and 80s highs sounds like heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Been out in the yard all day. Sun broke out and it got into the upper 50s here. Felt great. Did some spot seeding, cleaned up branches, and pruned. I am ready. As for later tonight, looks like some places in N MD might see maybe an inch of wet snow. Elsewhere could be some wet flakes mixed in at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Hit a high of 52 a short time ago. Took out most of the remaining snow cover. Temp on the way down now with rain on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Is there anything to talk about for tomorrow morning or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is there anything to talk about for tomorrow morning or no? Not really, I would expect just moodflakes outside of the usual lucky areas. HRRR has been trending less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Been out in the yard all day. Sun broke out and it got into the upper 50s here. Felt great. Did some spot seeding, cleaned up branches, and pruned. I am ready. As for later tonight, looks like some places in N MD might see maybe an inch of wet snow. Elsewhere could be some wet flakes mixed in at the end. We still have 80% coverage here even with the warmer temps. Steady slow melt but couldn't do any yard work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Not really, I would expect just moodflakes outside of the usual lucky areas. HRRR has been trending less impressive It's basically almost the same last 3 runs. In fact, 20z is a bit quicker on the changeover over parts of CMD with the changeover. Models have this setup pinned. It's basically a matter of banding. Wouldn't expect much outside the typical areas, like you said, but it's not trending less impressive. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's basically almost the same last 3 runs. In fact, 20z is a bit quicker on the changeover over parts of CMD with the changeover. Models have this setup pinned. It's basically a matter of banding. Wouldn't expect much outside the typical areas, like you said, but it's not trending less impressive. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Meso models want to place the best banding to my west which is a shame as it then avoids the higher elevations in north central md that could support snow. But it would be good for the catoctins and perhaps higher elevations west of leesburg. The gfs on the other hand wants to plaster me with 6-8" of wet snow tonight. Any chance I can get the gfs location of the banding but the wetter qpf of the meso models? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Meso models want to place the best banding to my west which is a shame as it then avoids the higher elevations in north central md that could support snow. But it would be good for the catoctins and perhaps higher elevations west of leesburg. The gfs on the other hand wants to plaster me with 6-8" of wet snow tonight. Any chance I can get the gfs location of the banding but the wetter qpf of the meso models? Lol Going to be interesting to see if the higher terrain gets some snow later tonight. That band was over my house the past 2-3 days. best of luck.. Got a feeling the high spots get around 6-9 inches in the best dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Meso models want to place the best banding to my west which is a shame as it then avoids the higher elevations in north central md that could support snow. But it would be good for the catoctins and perhaps higher elevations west of leesburg. The gfs on the other hand wants to plaster me with 6-8" of wet snow tonight. Any chance I can get the gfs location of the banding but the wetter qpf of the meso models? LolWith this type of setup, there could easily be some surprises. I hope you nailed by this. This has N MD written all over it with just a slight east adjustment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, mdhokie said: We still have 80% coverage here even with the warmer temps. Steady slow melt but couldn't do any yard work. A few inches of sleet sticks around for awhile. I had 3" of rain and then all the cold/dry and wind so the soil was perfectly moist today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Hi rez NAM gives snow to Catoctins, western Howard Co, NW Montgomery Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Meso models want to place the best banding to my west which is a shame as it then avoids the higher elevations in north central md that could support snow. But it would be good for the catoctins and perhaps higher elevations west of leesburg. The gfs on the other hand wants to plaster me with 6-8" of wet snow tonight. Any chance I can get the gfs location of the banding but the wetter qpf of the meso models? Lol GFS is nuts and on its own lol. If this trends east a bit, 1-2" looks reasonable at your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Temps dropping quickly we might be in for a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I've picked up almost an 1" of rain in the last two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Temps dropping quickly we might be in for a surprise I'm down to 35. Just need another couple degrees and it should flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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