Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Budget processes are long and involved,kind of a hyped panic attack when initial numbers are thrown out. I would wait until it shakes out before freaking out. The process has a way of evolving. NWS and close in forecasting probably is not a target for the big cuts. Initial reaction almost always assumes Armageddon but we will see.

Yes and no. This won't be the final budget, but I know I haven't seen or heard of such a targeted attack on specific parts of NOAA. 22-26% cuts to OAR and NESDIS are big numbers to overcome, even if they can argue their way into a little softer cuts. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually it does matter. The globe isn't supposed to warm homogeneously...both spacially and temporally. 

There have actually been papers recently that talk about the mid-latitude winters warming much slower (and even cooling in the past 25 years) recently due to Arctic amplification. Now whether this continues or not (and how long) is obviously speculative...but it's been a notable trend since the late 1980s. The place that has seen the effect the most is actually not the U.S., but Asia. There's been a steep decline in winter temps there. So while you can see our area of cooling in the eastern US during that time, it's not as impressive as the other side of the world...the band of mid-latitude cold in the NH is quite evident...and it seems to be confined to the cold season. 

 

 

 

 I'm not sure what we are disagreeing on, but in terms of scaled forcing the dominant signal there is the warming everywhere else. 

I'm not sure why a smaller cold nodes that happens to be lingering over the Northeast US, or like latitudes ...is more indicative of the system when considering that dominant signal that occupies the whole.  That doesn't make logical sense to me. 

 I would suggest that in plain text what it really means is that we have been very fortunate in this band to not be involved in a much more demonstrative heating like everywhere else, of course relative to our climatology  

But that's the way I roll

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Guilty.

Nice little event here, plows had to be dusted off and fired up around town.

Wow, I guess I underestimated the squalls there!! I decided not to head up there this weekend. Definitely should have!!

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 I'm not sure what we are disagreeing on, but in terms of scaled forcing the dominant signal there is the warming everywhere else. 

I'm not sure why a smaller cold nodes that happens to be lingering over the Northeast US, or like latitudes ...is more indicative of the system when considering that dominant signal that occupies the whole.  That doesn't make logical sense to me. 

 I would suggest that in plain text what it really means is that we have been very fortunate in this band to not be involved in a much more demonstrative heating like everywhere else, of course relative to our climatology  

But that's the way roll

That NoAm cold pool is just about centered over DC! I kid, I kid...(kind of)

There is probably something to us (the US) not living it day to day. But somewhere like SE Asia is taking prospects of climate change seriously.

[backedgeapproaching]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow, I guess I underestimated the squalls there!! I decided not to head up there this weekend. Definitely should have!!

I posted this in the NNE thread, but they had to close Rte 11/30 both ways out of Manchester just heading up the mountain towards Stratton, Bromley, etc earlier for a few hours due to an accident. As you know, it's the only way up there, lots of people coming in for the weekend stuck in town.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 I'm not sure what we are disagreeing on, but in terms of scaled forcing the dominant signal there is the warming everywhere else. 

I'm not sure why a smaller cold nodes that happens to be lingering over the Northeast US, or like latitudes ...is more indicative of the system when considering that dominant signal that occupies the whole.  That doesn't make logical sense to me. 

 I would suggest that in plain text what it really means is that we have been very fortunate in this band to not be involved in a much more demonstrative heating like everywhere else, of course relative to our climatology  

But that's the way I roll

Well AGW climate theory does say the poles should warm faster than mid latitudes. So i guess I am saying we shouldn't expect everywhere to warm the same amount and certainly not an even distribution over each season...but there's something to be said for empirical evidence at the end of the day. The poles have been warming faster (well mostly the north polar regions...southern polar regions have been a bit sluggish vs models). Do we expect our winters to keep stagnating on the warming? No, I don't think that is what the data is showing or says...but in a latitude band that warms slower, you'd probably expect 20 year periods of no warming. So while its "lucky", it probably isn't that strange at all. 

Anyways, back to the original point...it might be less lucky than we first think too. If Arctic amplification is really leading to a higher frequency of the "warm Arctic, cold continents" pattern in the winter, then the band of colder temps shown in those latitudes might be explained by more than chance. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Pretty good snow shower right now, quick coating.  19/8

[Ginx snewx]

Decent squalls 495 EMASS Lowell to Lynn

[Typhoon Tip]

Well… Trump administration just announced in the last hours their going to be gutting NASA's satellite budget ...

 So AGW or GW aside and I guess if you can't see it it doesn't exist huh

[eekuasepinniW]

It's so cold.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Round 2 just blasted through here.  Much windier and sexier.    Not much accum.  A new dusting, but it was exciting for 5 minutes.    Half expected thunder

[CoastalWx]

Friend in Peabody said a little over an inch.

[ajisai]

Some nice snow in Boston. So windy that the flakes are basically floating rather than falling.

[ajisai]

Pumping flakes

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well AGW climate theory does say the poles should warm faster than mid latitudes. So i guess I am saying we shouldn't expect everywhere to warm the same amount and certainly not an even distribution over each season...but there's something to be said for empirical evidence at the end of the day. The poles have been warming faster (well mostly the north polar regions...southern polar regions have been a bit sluggish vs models). Do we expect our winters to keep stagnating on the warming? No, I don't think that is what the data is showing or says...but in a latitude band that warms slower, you'd probably expect 20 year periods of no warming. So while its "lucky", it probably isn't that strange at all. 

Anyways, back to the original point...it might be less lucky than we first think too. If Arctic amplification is really leading to a higher frequency of the "warm Arctic, cold continents" pattern in the winter, then the band of colder temps shown in those latitudes might be explained by more than chance. 

Exactly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friend in Peabody said a little over an inch.

Ditto.......like 20:1 fluff.

[CoastalWx]

Another coating here. Two decent squalls.  Everything was modeled well. I told Kevin anything near an inch would be very localized, so

him saying model fail is incorrect. 

[OceanStWx]

Looks like 850 temps at GYX are going to be about -25.7C, previous record for 04.12z was -20.8.

Monthly min is -27.1, so we're not all that far off from there either.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks like 850 temps at GYX are going to be about -25.7C, previous record for 04.12z was -20.8.

Monthly min is -27.1, so we're not all that far off from there either.

Pretty soon you'll have to go to "Its A Party" and fill your own balloon, tie an accurite thermometer on it, and get the reading that way. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty soon you'll have to go to "Its A Party" and fill your own balloon, tie an accurite thermometer on it, and get the reading that way. 

Reel it in by hand twice a day so we don't have to make several trips back to the store a week. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ditto.......like 20:1 fluff.

Windsexy

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Reel it in by hand twice a day so we don't have to make several trips back to the store a week. 

Just wanted to say how much we all appreciate what you guys in the NWS  do for the public good.  I know the angst you all are feeling during these times of budget cuts and realignments, sucks. Hopefully the pain is minimal to you and your peeps. 

[CoastalWx]

Near 60 this time a week ago. Now 11. Looks like low was 10.7.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5.4F here this morning.  A nice dusting of snow.   Calm right now

Morch on

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just wanted to say how much we all appreciate what you guys in the NWS  do for the public good.  I know the angst you all are feeling during these times of budget cuts and realignments, sucks. Hopefully the pain is minimal to you and your peeps. 

I'll survive, because I still care about what I do. It's those people who were borderline to begin with. They are the types that might shut it down for a time.

[moneypitmike]

Deep winter temps with a mere coating of snow in early March = sucky.

 

9.9* off of 4.7*.

[OceanStWx]

GOES-13 vs. GOES-16 (formerly R)

1 km on the top vs. 0.5 km on the bottom, but the 1 minute update times for our mesoscale sector are just sweet. We really need a dynamic event to give it a test drive.

Oh, and the GOES-R data is experimental, so don't go using it like operational data if you were planning on making any decision based on this image.

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

GOES-13 vs. GOES-16 (formerly R)

1 km on the top vs. 0.5 km on the bottom, but the 1 minute update times for our mesoscale sector are just sweet. We really need a dynamic event to give it a test drive.

Oh, and the GOES-R data is experimental, so don't go using it like operational data if you were planning on making any decision based on this image.

Nice gravity wave stitches 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well AGW climate theory does say the poles should warm faster than mid latitudes. So i guess I am saying we shouldn't expect everywhere to warm the same amount and certainly not an even distribution over each season...but there's something to be said for empirical evidence at the end of the day. The poles have been warming faster (well mostly the north polar regions...southern polar regions have been a bit sluggish vs models). Do we expect our winters to keep stagnating on the warming? No, I don't think that is what the data is showing or says...but in a latitude band that warms slower, you'd probably expect 20 year periods of no warming. So while its "lucky", it probably isn't that strange at all. 

Anyways, back to the original point...it might be less lucky than we first think too. If Arctic amplification is really leading to a higher frequency of the "warm Arctic, cold continents" pattern in the winter, then the band of colder temps shown in those latitudes might be explained by more than chance. 

Well... this statement services my point in this discussion.

Which was, speak to the situation as a whole, not just the imby domain space of eastern N/A -

I just didn't read it implicit or explicitly in the original chatter that the entire system was causal - and that's what you just outlined above.  So we actually agree. 

I'm perfectly willing to explore the idea that GW is somehow having a mechanics cold-feedback in driving the mid latitudes as having relative negative during winters.  

And...notice I didn't say AGW; in fact, I haven't said AGW once, carefully not in recent times.  I don't want to arouse that sort of "strategically" obfuscated debate on whether Anthro. is causal -

... redact

 I left "A" out of GW above so as to avoid all that -

[Ginx snewx]

Did the political and climate subforums move? I would respond to the name calling bigotry but nah.