weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: ?? Just compare heights in a certain spot from 12 hrs ago. You don't need heights to tank, but in general I like to see them fall if we want convection in SNE since we need all the help we can get. I assume you mean in PA and NY though. Yes. I was just wondering if there was some equation to do it but that makes sense to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yes. I was just wondering if there was some equation to do it but that makes sense to do. Just pick an area and do it in your head by comparing 6 or 12 hrs earlier. No need to calculate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The forcing will be there..if we can maintain some elevated instability into the overnight I could see the line holding up but doing so at sub-severe levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just pick an area and do it in your head by comparing 6 or 12 hrs earlier. No need to calculate it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 wow just looked at some of the latest RAP soundings on bufkit out across PA. Pretty impressive hodographs with some modest instability. There is even a quite a bit of hail cape...I wonder if the hail aspect of this is being underplayed. The big issue for tornadoes is looks like things will become linear rather quickly. If storm mode was more discrete this could have been potential for a localized tornado outbreak. Lapse rates aren't the greatest but certainly a bit better than usual for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Seems like we have to play this game as part of our curse for living ...east of Albany. You wake up on mornings like this utterly socked in with fog and dense low ceilings...flags barely wobbling. What breeze there is like toxic waste oozing across the land from N. NE. 'Will the warm air get the surface N of NYC' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 My God..inverted-v soundings with 50-60 knots of wind at 850mb across PA Might see an impressive swath of damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 What's this NAMNEST? I see it on the PSU bufkit page. How does it differ from the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 946 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-011800- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford- Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike- Southern Wayne- 946 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Thunderstorms, potentially severe, are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon through evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms, but isolated tornadoes will be possible. Also, the storms may contain heavy rainfall with the potential for localized urban and small stream flooding. Make sure you are very aware of the weather this afternoon through evening, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. Generally speaking, the main period of concern will be 4 PM to 10 PM west of Interstate 81, and 6 PM to midnight east of Interstate 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Today officially sucks. Crappy onshore flow complete with misery mist. This is why I hate New England Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What's this NAMNEST? I see it on the PSU bufkit page. How does it differ from the NAM? Same product as the old fire nest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Sorry for the car question again, but is it common for a dealer to really haggle over $300? They listed the car at 16,000 and based on My research that is slightly over priced. I offered them 15,700 for the vehicle. I'm having a hard time imagining they won't budge over 300$, as I am prepared to end negotiations if they truly won't budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Sorry for the car question again, but is it common for a dealer to really haggle over $300? They listed the car at 16,000 and based on My research that is slightly over priced. I offered them 15,700 for the vehicle. I'm having a hard time imagining they won't budge over 300$, as I am prepared to end negotiations if they truly won't budge Yeah they suck. It's their loss if you walk away. Sometimes you can walk away and they'll call you back. Don't give in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah they suck. It's their loss if you walk away. Sometimes you can walk away and they'll call you back. Don't give in. He was firm on the price being non negotiable... I said that's fine... but I think we're done here if there will be no movement on your part. Well see if they call back... but I'm prepared to be completely done with the negotiation at this point. the whole process is turning out to be quite stressful and unenjoyable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: He was firm on the price being non negotiable... I said that's fine... but I think we're done here if there will be no movement on your part. Well see if they call back... but I'm prepared to be completely done with the negotiation at this point. the whole process is turning out to be quite stressful and unenjoyable Only time it is enjoyable is if you have the cash (or large amount of it) right there. Then they'll practically sleep with you..lol. As long as you are educated and know what it's worth...(get quotes from multiple places) then you'll be ok. Also waiting until the end of the month can help as they want to get rid of inventory too. Of course the dealerships do know that you'll play the game of pitting everyone against each other and you'll never get a truly good price. My second option is leasing. Leasing can be your best option if you do now drive many miles. Since cars literally reduce in value as you drive off the lot...it can be the best of both worlds. I would lease if I did not drive so much. If you do buy, try to pay off the loan ASAP. If you have extra money, put it to the principle of the loan. That way you pay it off quicker with less monthly interest. I bought and paid mine off in 4 yrs so I have been 1 yr without a bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Only time it is enjoyable is if you have the cash (or large amount of it) right there. Then they'll practically sleep with you..lol. As long as you are educated and know what it's worth...(get quotes from multiple places) then you'll be ok. Also waiting until the end of the month can help as they want to get rid of inventory too. Of course the dealerships do know that you'll play the game of pitting everyone against each other and you'll never get a truly good price. My second option is leasing. Leasing can be your best option if you do now drive many miles. Since cars literally reduce in value as you drive off the lot...it can be the best of both worlds. I would lease if I did not drive so much. If you do buy, try to pay off the loan ASAP. If you have extra money, put it to the principle of the loan. That way you pay it off quicker with less monthly interest. I bought and paid mine off in 4 yrs so I have been 1 yr without a bill. That's how I did things with my current car... I paid off the loan before it was up and saved some money that way. Ive already been approved for finacing and don't have a trade... so they can't screw me on those two things. I would like to lease.... but on average I've driven up 18-19k miles per year since getting my current car...which I think would make leasing rather difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That's how I did things with my current car... I paid off the loan before it was up and saved some money that way. Ive already been approved for finacing and don't have a trade... so they can't screw me on those two things. I would like to lease.... but on average I've driven up 18-19k miles per year since getting my current car...which I think would make leasing rather difficult Sometimes they'll waive the fees with driving over, if you do business with the dealership again. That could be good or bad, but my friend does this all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That's how I did things with my current car... I paid off the loan before it was up and saved some money that way. Ive already been approved for finacing and don't have a trade... so they can't screw me on those two things. I would like to lease.... but on average I've driven up 18-19k miles per year since getting my current car...which I think would make leasing rather difficult Where are you looking to purchase from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Where are you looking to purchase from? this particular vehicle was Honda of Dartmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: this particular vehicle was Honda of Dartmouth Well if you in the market for a Mazda, I can point you to Mastria in Raynham. We have a great relationship with them and my neighbor works for them as a mechanic. Great line of vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: He was firm on the price being non negotiable... I said that's fine... but I think we're done here if there will be no movement on your part. Well see if they call back... but I'm prepared to be completely done with the negotiation at this point. the whole process is turning out to be quite stressful and unenjoyable are you willing to walk away from the car you want over $300? and are you willing to go through the process all over again with a different dealer over a different car? these are questions only you can answer. i recently walked away from a deal in which we were about $900 apart. i wasn't desperate for the vehicle, but i did like it. but i didn't have to have it. i was going to wait 4-6 months to get back to shopping after i walked, but they called me within a couple days with the deal i wanted. the difference wasn't the price of the vehicle, rather the value of the trade. it is all a numbers game for them, but it mattered to me (they wouldn't give me what i owed on my trade). i refuse to roll over any value into a new loan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I got really lucky during my last automotive fiasco. Very smooth transition. Left work on a typical week-day night. Didn't notice anything out of the ordinary about the behavior of my 2004 Saturn, with it's 240,xxx of history, as I wended my way out of the parking lot. Somewhere in route home ...it was like when an old person stoops to the side into an episode where it's time to make family member phone calls. By the time I was in my home town the engine was rattling something fierce. It was still putting out power though, which was strange. I could drive it - though not recommended. I tried changing the oil in vein that evening, didn't work. Then dropped it off at the mechanic the next morning, but I knew.. The guy confirmed what I already feared - after the 12 years of faithful service and surprisingly low total maintenance costs, it was time to put it down. He even said he was shocked I was able to drive it over to his shop; he figured the crank case had fragments and the timing was hosed. That's the automobile version of a tombstone cardiac event. I limped it into Christmas Motors in Maynard Ma, and two hours and about thirteen minutes later I was driving out of there in my present 2015 Corolla S. This car is awesome, too. 'Course, the monthly payments suck but ... I had always planned that I would drive my last car until it couldn't drive it - I just didn't consider that day actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Not to butt in on the car buying convo but another thing you could consider if they won't budge on the price is to get them to throw in some extras instead. I had a similar experience so I went the accessory route. I wanted a hood deflector and a hitch for a bike rack. Got them to throw that in installed. See, they pay peanuts for the parts and the labor is free because the mechanics are already there. It's a win the dealer and you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hazey said: Not to butt in on the car buying convo but another thing you could consider if they won't budge on the price is to get them to throw in some extras instead. I had a similar experience so I went the accessory route. I wanted a hood deflector and a hitch for a bike rack. Got them to throw that in installed. See, they pay peanuts for the parts and the labor is free because the mechanics are already there. It's a win the dealer and you. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Pretty big fail on temps here. 64F forecast high, 49.6F attm, off a high of 51 We misery. For the car buying, I agree about asking them to throw in some accessories to bridge that gap. New car or used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Pretty big fail on temps here. 64F forecast high, 49.6F attm, off a high of 51 We misery. For the car buying, I agree about asking them to throw in some accessories to bridge that gap. New car or used? Glad we don't live there.70 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 46.5F and drizzle. lol at the GFS trying to push the WF up to CON today. GJGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 From Fisher Cold pool nearby/overhead next week is definitely impressive. Still feel like peaks at the least will see snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: 46.5F and drizzle. lol at the GFS trying to push the WF up to CON today. GJGE it's probably going to be an 11:59 PM'er ... Clearing is actively accelerated NE and it jumped to 60 at the office right before I left. I got up here along Rt poop and well...it's poopy again. I figure my sky starts to brighten 15 minutes before sundown as the clearing is moving N at about make sure the day is totally f'ed miles per hour, before allowing the any plausibility of salvage. So you step out doors at 11:15 pm and it may have jumped to 64 at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Temps going the wrong way here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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