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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The GFS will always be Belichick with the Browns.

Actually it appears that Belichick with the Browns has been fired. The GFS is going away.

As early as 2019, the GFS will become the NGGPS. Not a lot of details on what that upgrade is going to be like, but this spring is the big shift in resources. NAM gets its last upgrade this month before all attention moves to the NGGPS.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Actually it appears that Belichick with the Browns has been fired. The GFS is going away.

As early as 2019, the GFS will become the NGGPS. Not a lot of details on what that upgrade is going to be like, but this spring is the big shift in resources. NAM gets its last upgrade this month before all attention moves to the NGGPS.

No Good Goddamn Piece of  Sh it?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Actually it appears that Belichick with the Browns has been fired. The GFS is going away.

As early as 2019, the GFS will become the NGGPS. Not a lot of details on what that upgrade is going to be like, but this spring is the big shift in resources. NAM gets its last upgrade this month before all attention moves to the NGGPS.

NGGPS?

Buy a couple vowels and you have the NOGAPS? 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

No more updates to GFS. Despite gfs becoming new model, EC will leap over them in a few years.

Well the ECMWF is dumping a ton of money into the new data center in Italy, and we're over here slashing the NOAA OAR and NESDIS budgets. Models typically get better with research and satellite input. So cutting the budgets of those two factions of NOAA seems like it won't help the GFS or NGGPS or whatever.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well the ECMWF is dumping a ton of money into the new data center in Italy, and we're over here slashing the NOAA OAR and NESDIS budgets. Models typically get better with research and satellite input. So cutting the budgets of those two factions of NOAA seems like it won't help the GFS or NGGPS or whatever.

Tell Trumpy Europe is winning and that'll change.

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the trend line is def up over the longer term....once you back about 3 decades. And actually, the trend might be closer to flat since the late 1990s after this winter gets factored in since it was another warm one.

 

But most of his rant was pure weenieism....for one, we just had a winter two years ago where we set the record for the coldest 3 month period Jan-Mar...that's not easy to do. On top of that, we had literally a sustained 20+ inch pack for like 2 months of that winter...peaking over 30 inches in most spots (and over 40 in several), something that was very anomalous....then finally, the idea that we get wire to wire winters with snowpack and no thaws is pretty much a fantasy in SNE. Maybe up in an area like Rangeley, ME they do that, but not here. Interior SNE will do well with snow pack, but it usually is withstanding thaws and going through thaw/freeze cycles. Even in good winters. Two years ago was pretty unique in not getting a single real thaw until the very end once we established snow pack on Jan 24th.

Exxxxxxacy on all points.  

And also we can go into my theory of Where places are getting less / the same / more snow in the new climate war of "More Storms vs. R/S in Storms being more Notth"  Me to you on North is coming out on top of that situation.  SE of that is getting the same or less.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Exxxxxxacy on all points.  

And also we can go into my theory of Where places are getting less / the same / more snow in the new climate war of "More Storms vs. R/S in Storms being more Notth"  Me to you on North is coming out on top of that situation.  SE of that is getting the same or less.  

SE MA stealing NNE snow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think the trend analysis for New England should matter to any one nearly as much as it does for the whole Globe. That's vastly more important when entertaining the discussion, if we want to be intelligent about matters, compared to taking cherry picked periods out of time and quadrature.  Yeah, I'm aware they were talking about New England - my point is, why do that? 

NASA puts out Global mean temperatures ... replete with anomalies.  

We have been in a relative heat sink compared to most everywhere else for the last 5 years. There are other 'cool nodes' in a domanating warm trend - we just happen to be one of them, much to our enabled blessing. Heh.

 In fact, NASA's  "significant events" product actually picked up on the colossal 5 week siege from two years ago, as - relative to the surroundings - a once in a 50 year event. Those kind of outlier events happen in any system in nature.  They are like "rogue waves" in an angry sea .. your rolling over waves, thinking you're going to make through the tempest ... the next thing you know, you're saying hello to a Coast Guard rescue swimmer as you're getting loaded into a meat crate about to be hoisted up to a levitating helicopter - where the hell did that come from?!  

 

Actually it does matter. The globe isn't supposed to warm homogeneously...both spacially and temporally. 

There have actually been papers recently that talk about the mid-latitude winters warming much slower (and even cooling in the past 25 years) recently due to Arctic amplification. Now whether this continues or not (and how long) is obviously speculative...but it's been a notable trend since the late 1980s. The place that has seen the effect the most is actually not the U.S., but Asia. There's been a steep decline in winter temps there. So while you can see our area of cooling in the eastern US during that time, it's not as impressive as the other side of the world...the band of mid-latitude cold in the NH is quite evident...and it seems to be confined to the cold season. 

 

 

 

image.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I forecast all across the globe. The other met agencies across the globe (including Europe) either don't care, or don't have the attention to detail that US forecasters have. Cutting the budget for meteorological services in the U.S. Is a travesty. For the country with the best overall forecasting...this is beyond mind blowing.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually it does matter. The globe isn't supposed to warm homogeneously...both spacially and temporally. 

There have actually been papers recently that talk about the mid-latitude winters warming much slower (and even cooling in the past 25 years) recently due to Arctic amplification. Now whether this continues or not (and how long) is obviously speculative...but it's been a notable trend since the late 1980s. The place that has seen the effect the most is actually not the U.S., but Asia. There's been a steep decline in winter temps there. So while you can see our area of cooling in the eastern US during that time, it's not as impressive as the other side of the world...the band of mid-latitude cold in the NH is quite evident...and it seems to be confined to the cold season. 

 

 

 

image.png

And if one is to believe the accuracy of those temps...I am curious as to why the arctic has been such a magnet for this warmth. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I forecast all across the globe. The other met agencies across the globe (including Europe) either don't care, or don't have the attention to detail that US forecasters have. Cutting the budget for meteorological services in the U.S. Is a travesty. For the country with the best overall forecasting...this is beyond mind blowing.

We can only do more with less for so long...

They say "let a national center handle the long term forecast." Sure, that would free up a forecaster to focus on short term, higher impact stuff. But that long term forecast will be the National Blend of Models (NBM). The NBM currently includes no ECMWF forecast data. Their hope is probably that bias correcting the NBM at each grid point will be enough to overcome the lack of ECMWF data, but other forecast entities are already doing that and doing it with ECMWF data. It seems like we're going to willingly put out sub-par forecasts. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually it does matter. The globe isn't supposed to warm homogeneously...both spacially and temporally. 

There have actually been papers recently that talk about the mid-latitude winters warming much slower (and even cooling in the past 25 years) recently due to Arctic amplification. Now whether this continues or not (and how long) is obviously speculative...but it's been a notable trend since the late 1980s. The place that has seen the effect the most is actually not the U.S., but Asia. There's been a steep decline in winter temps there. So while you can see our area of cooling in the eastern US during that time, it's not as impressive as the other side of the world...the band of mid-latitude cold in the NH is quite evident...and it seems to be confined to the cold season. 

 

 

 

image.png

I've always suspected that the rapidly warming poles were amplifying out winters...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We can only do more with less for so long...

They say "let a national center handle the long term forecast." Sure, that would free up a forecaster to focus on short term, higher impact stuff. But that long term forecast will be the National Blend of Models (NBM). The NBM currently includes no ECMWF forecast data. Their hope is probably that bias correcting the NBM at each grid point will be enough to overcome the lack of ECMWF data, but other forecast entities are already doing that and doing it with ECMWF data. It seems like we're going to willingly put out sub-par forecasts. 

GFS stuff is mostly unused in the energy sector because of its skill compared to the euro.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Budget processes are long and involved,kind of a hyped panic attack when initial numbers are thrown out. I would wait until it shakes out before freaking out. The process has a way of evolving. NWS and close in forecasting probably is not a target for the big cuts. Initial reaction almost always assumes Armageddon but we will see.

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