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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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Will be interesting to see if anything transpires overnight and early tomorrow morning.  Some guidance brings in a surge of elevated instability with steepening lapse rates ahead of some shortwave energy/weak frontal boundary and modest height falls.  Major differences, however, on where I guess "MCS" complex tracks late overnight and early tomorrow morning.  

It will also be interesting to see if any updrafts can generate and bust through the cap down in the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow.  I mean some of those soundings are beyond filthy with very steep lapse rates up to the tropopause.  I mean tomorrow 's soundings are textbook for significant hail...just a question of forcing/lift.  Heights rise which will hurt things and morning convection could hurt as well with shortwave ridging/subsidence left behind.  Those soundings though...wow

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75/45 here...skied a run in shorts this afternoon.  Feels like last summer did...warm but dry air.

Lots of snow melt water pouring off the mountain.  River flowing swiftly and full like we just got 2" of rain today past my house. Always interesting to see the river so high while the ground is dry...but the water is crystal clear.  When it gets this high after a thunderstorm or heavy rain it's usually a muddy looking torrent.  Snow melt is just so clear as it's not rain taking dirt and run off from fields and other places along the way.

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Steve you're getting you're lower DPs advecting in on schedule. 

Just got back from a run - was hot but not too bad.  Wind really helps that.  It's hard to run in 80 F in the best of DPs though so perhaps it doesn't count. 

That BD on Sunday is depressing folks.  well...technically it's a BD for Philly... straight up frontal drape from the NNW for us late tomorrow but the oomph of it is more BDorzy.  

Ridge ? what ridge Sunday afternoon -  ...it never ceases to amaze me just how bifurcated the lower troposphere can be at this time of year, when there is a ridge amplifying over head with hot air at 800 ... it's like we have two tropospheres: one up there, one down here...completely disconnected from one another.  In any event... maybe we can sneak back into the warm sector on Monday before the longer range return to winter happens - heh

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Will be interesting to see if anything transpires overnight and early tomorrow morning.  Some guidance brings in a surge of elevated instability with steepening lapse rates ahead of some shortwave energy/weak frontal boundary and modest height falls.  Major differences, however, on where I guess "MCS" complex tracks late overnight and early tomorrow morning.  

It will also be interesting to see if any updrafts can generate and bust through the cap down in the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow.  I mean some of those soundings are beyond filthy with very steep lapse rates up to the tropopause.  I mean tomorrow 's soundings are textbook for significant hail...just a question of forcing/lift.  Heights rise which will hurt things and morning convection could hurt as well with shortwave ridging/subsidence left behind.  Those soundings though...wow

really?  all the guidance I've seen have mid level heights rising starting today ...straight on thru hour 48 before perhaps subsiding late Sunday ... It's one of the reasons that makes the stupid boundary late tomorrow/night so maddening because we should be establishing a heat wave with that look alone. 

But...the unique topographical nature of our geographical region just literally sucks lower troposheric cold down out of eastern Ontario at least excuse imaginable... We can't ever transport high pressure through on the back side confluence of even weak S/W moving into the Maritimes or we have this endless siege of cold wedging that cuts in and "fills the void" underneath.  It's just that the course 500 mb height layouts do a lousy job at illustrating that potential so what seems like injustice has a real physical cause - it's definitely unique to this region though. I grew up in Michigan and never remember a whiplash 40 deg wind blast with 30 F temperature depositions taking place there.  Definitely something I've only seen happen in easetern/SNE.   

I guess it's a give and take though...  We never got snow there like we do here. The cold is comparable, but not the snow (unless your in a perennial LES zone of course). But I was introduced to nor'easters and at least the potential for a steady diet of thunder snow with 50 mph winds and well...heh, I guess I'm okay with the toxicity of he BD in spring from time to time.  

But what was I oh yeah..  The NAM was having trouble over recent runs with the debris skies off of whatever the hell that crap is in northern IN/OH.  12z had backed off and allowed Boston to shoot toward 85 again tomorrow, now this 18z is mid way and dimmed back to the mid or upper 70s.  But in order for theta-e to advect in that could be interesting... Hate to cite the NAM but that model actually does score reasonably well with convective initialization and it doesn't really have much so perhaps not - 

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kinda chilled now...dew down to 33F at CON. What a plummet this afternoon after a semi-muggy midday.

lol good catch.

I didn't notice how fast that dew dropped.

Up here it was 75/45 a couple hours ago and now it's 73/33.  

No bug temp change but dews near freezing now.

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This morning it was sticky down around the canal. Sun came out and it was uncomfortable for a bit...but then the air dried out and a nice breeze helped...first day with a sweaty sports bra. Be glad you guys don't have to wear them. Whoever invented them should be shot!

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