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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not the Atlantic..just the wave is much farther north than guidance had yesterday so today turns into a rainer midday for a few hours

Looking at the hi res visible satellite loop over the course of these dawn hours it does strain the imagination a little to visualize how conditions in the sky could improve prior to dark this evening...

Yet, the NAM insists, in all the 18z, 00z and 06z guidance cycles, that sometime between now and 2 pm or so ... a sort of sharp back edge/clearing will formulate with opening in the mid and upper levels; dramatically lowered cloud level RH will align and press through SNE during the remainder of the afternoon.  The 00z Euro also dramatically lowers the RH in the 800 to 500 mb levels during this afternoon...  It'll be interesting to see how the blend of those two models performs.

However, if that happens, I'm not sure the boundary layer down below, plugged in with dense chilly dank, would be scouring out in tandem. It could be one of those typical spring deals in SNE where the atmosphere peals off and abandons the llvs to stew in it.   

In any case, even if it stays socked in beneath ... clearing above would mean brighter if/when the mid and upper levels moved off.  Hey, it's something! 

Tomorrow is looking like top 10 day though. Hey, it's April is southern New butt-bang-land ... Splitting any weekend in April between a relative win and loss is like last night's Bruins winning in double OT to extend the series for another day...  We count our blessings and move on.  In weather terminology there is "COL" ... which loosely fits for tomorrow - it's kind of a bland pressure pattern that doesn't really have a very obvious influence from any source/direction.  But, most importantly, dry aloft and below. With 850s in the +4 to +7 C range across the area actually makes me wonder why the MOS is only 66 at KBED and KHFD... With early August sun lazing the landscape, that's going be spectacular.  That has powdered MOS bust just add sunshine written all over it!  Recent machine guidance from the NAM and GFS have been adding a tick every cycle over the past couple of days, and now are up between 65 and 69 ...Given that trend, known machine biases at this time of year, together with that overal synoptic setting depicted ... it probably caps out in the low 70s.  

'Course, that's all predicated on the assumption that the 800 to 500 mb levels are indeed getting DVM in RH under 50% as the models illustrate.  we'll see.  

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37.3F here.  Miserable.  Did really well in the rain department yesterday.  I seemed to be in the line of fire with rain patch after rain patch well into the late evening.  Ended up with 1.12"

Few snow patches remain in the deep woods but getting harder to find.  Forsythia is just opening but that is about it but grass is greening up.  Things should pop this week.

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You can clearly see the weak CF out in Central NYS. Albany has already flipped to WNW and is 50/41, which sounds wonderful to the rest of us. Time is our biggest enemy today. Three to six hours faster would make a huge difference today. The dry air is on our door step but it certainly isn't in a hurry. Long daylight hours may make this a salvageable "outdoor" day for the interior this afternoon, outside of ME. At least it will manifest in a big improvement over yesterday's misery mist. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You can clearly see the weak CF out in Central NYS. Albany has already flipped to WNW and is 50/41, which sounds wonderful to the rest of us. Time is our biggest enemy today. The dry air is on our door step but it certainly isn't in a hurry. Long daylight hours may make this a salvageable "outdoor" day for the interior this afternoon, outside of ME. At least it will manifest in a big improvement over yesterday's misery mist. 

Ha..you're the eternal scrounging optimist :)

this is a bottom 5 day.  At least at this hour, over the interior of SNE.   Given rad and ground truth ..we have gathering strength on radar, which is seemingly antithetic to guidance (which are busty at the moment).  With intermittent showery rains down this way, and looking up stream the angle of inclusion being back-lit with more stripes of this crap clear to eastern PA and headed this way... good luck.

 

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8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You can clearly see the weak CF out in Central NYS. Albany has already flipped to WNW and is 50/41, which sounds wonderful to the rest of us. Time is our biggest enemy today. Three to six hours faster would make a huge difference today. The dry air is on our door step but it certainly isn't in a hurry. Long daylight hours may make this a salvageable "outdoor" day for the interior this afternoon, outside of ME. At least it will manifest in a big improvement over yesterday's misery mist. 

Stgill sucky over the area... low vis etc...yuck. Rain showers scattered all over SNE too. Today will be pretty sh*tty. Maybe VT and CT valley get better later.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha..you're the eternal scrounging optimist :)

this is a bottom 5 day.  At least at this hour, over the interior of SNE.   Given rad and ground truth ..we have gathering strength on radar, which is seemingly antithetic to guidance (which are busty at the moment).  With intermittent showery rains down this way, and looking up stream the angle of inclusion being back-lit with more stripes of this crap clear to eastern PA and headed this way... good luck.

 

He will soon understand how the Atlantic can be our enemy this time of year.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stgill sucky over the area... low vis etc...yuck. Rain showers scattered all over SNE too. Today will be pretty sh*tty. Maybe VT and CT valley get better later.

Skies are brigthening here and the drizzle has ended. I'll take what I can get. Baby steps all day...

Eastern SNE, is in the thick of it though, you're right. Tough to be optimistic around there, given the rain right now, and greater amount of time it takes for the drier air to work its way in.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He will soon understand how the Atlantic can be our enemy this time of year.

I lived on an island -- I get it. I suppose the greatest struggle I have around here is with respect to concisely describing the weather for such a large geographic region. NYC metro is much simpler in this regard ^_^. I have voiced my criticism over this before, but I digress...

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In the purest unbiased objective perspective I can perceive ..sure, not drizzling is better than still drizzling.  Lightish overcast is better than darkish overcast.  49 is better than 48... 

Yes, all that is true.  And, temps rising a degree per hour until 5 pm... capping at 55 in the most optimistic sense of things, would be improvement.  Sure.  Clearing right at sun set such that the tree tops are orange in glow for 10 minutes before darkness tsunamis in ...yep, that's better than being pan-cloud the whole way. 

All that is true. 

However, ...I think folks should focus on tomorrow.  That's our day for outdoors -  Acceptance will set you free!!!  haha

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stgill sucky over the area... low vis etc...yuck. Rain showers scattered all over SNE too. Today will be pretty sh*tty. Maybe VT and CT valley get better later.

Despite scattered showers and a raw breeze you can see ceilings have lifted a bit here in the valley and there are a few partial breaks of blue even with radar showing more showers to the west/southwest.

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16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Skinny black jeans,too small leather jackets with zippers and mousse in hair? Enjoy 

That how you view Parisians?  This isn't 30 years ago. Very fashionable city.  Love the ease of access via Metro and pedestrian friendly streets.  There are cafes and restaurants everywhere.  The arts, architecture, history, museums, vistas are all incredible.  Only think I have found lacking is the beer scene.  

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That how you view Parisians?  This isn't 30 years ago. Very fashionable city.  Love the ease of access via Metro and pedestrian friendly streets.  There are cafes and restaurants everywhere.  The arts, architecture, history, museums, vistas are all incredible.  Only think I have found lacking is the beer scene.  

I want to do a river cruise there someday

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20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That how you view Parisians?  This isn't 30 years ago. Very fashionable city.  Love the ease of access via Metro and pedestrian friendly streets.  There are cafes and restaurants everywhere.  The arts, architecture, history, museums, vistas are all incredible.  Only think I have found lacking is the beer scene.  

Don't get shot.

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't get shot.

We're fine although we were in the area the day before for breakfast and site seeing.  The city is extremely safe. It city averages less than 100 murders a year over the past decade with even less in the past few years.  Amazing for a city of almost 2.3 million. ~700 murders in a country of 66 million.  Gun crime is virtually non-existent as guns are not allowed with minimal exceptions.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

39.8F at noon. Awesome day.

The difference between right this typing moment and tomorrow + 2.5 hours will be nothing shy of baffling - really... 

That is a MOS bust day like never before seen... altho hmm, wait   ..yeah, 67 is better.  The MOS' have been gaining a tick every cycle for the last day, but still look like they are shirking the region out of coupe three ... 67 at KASH under + 5C at 850 and superb heating with even light down slope adding really should be in the low 70s. 

Even if 67 is maintained, full sun at this time of year compared to this is like another universe

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't get shot.

High school group from Fort Kent (where most folks are of French ancestry) was on the Champs Elysee when the shots were fired.  All made it safely to shelter, scrambling to 4-5 different buildings, and it took a while for the group to fully re-gather.

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The caution flags were there as some alluded to yesterday.  Definitely still damper and cooler than I expected.  That bust during the winter when we had a cold tuck following a meso low was pretty bad too.  I think most modeling had us near 50 by morning in NCT and we were ZR and 29 and parts of EMA were like in the low 20's or something.

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