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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Snow-out has been declared. The last of my natural snowpack went sometime this afternoon.  Driveway piles will last another week.

Forsythia are now blooming in front of the Gilford Shaws and my saucer magnolia buds cracked open, revealing a nice purple flower inside. 

Still a patch left or there in the woods, per my parents.

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I dunno the mesos want to keep this crap around through most of tomorrow but the globals give it the boot by early tomorrow afternoon. The front is already in western NYS--I have to side with the globals here and we start getting dry air/westerly flow with some clearing outside of ME and northern NH by 18z Sat.

The GFS has a nice golf day even on the cape tomorrow. Quite the difference with the mesos showing 40's and misery mist. I think the mesos are IVT-happy with that fizzling low in Quebec. We should see the escaping coastal low take over sooner as per the globals...

Looks more miller B - esque to me; in the lamest conceivable way that is...

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29 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno the mesos want to keep this crap around through most of tomorrow but the globals give it the boot by early tomorrow afternoon. The front is already in western NYS--I have to side with the globals here and we start getting dry air/westerly flow with some clearing outside of ME and northern NH by 18z Sat.

The GFS has a nice golf day even on the cape tomorrow. Quite the difference with the mesos showing 40's and misery mist. I think the mesos are IVT-happy with that fizzling low in Quebec. We should see the escaping coastal low take over sooner as per the globals...

Looks more miller B - esque to me; in the lamest conceivable way that is...

It comes down to that westerly flow, i think... ...  I'm not sure which is better, the mesos -vs- the globals as far as seeing/modeling for this sort of synopsis, but ...just per experience, the cloud products tend to be over produced regardless in two setttings:  

one, sw flows in barotropic regions under warm boundaries. warm sectors tend to look strata-streeted in model depictions, but you end up with much more sun, if not opening up entirely.

the other being drying and active west winds behind cfropas.  

In either case, it seems the common thread is 'mixing' ...it seems the models may not handle cloud level RH too well when there is z coordinate motion - but that is just supposition. 

 

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GFS has a lot of low level clouds right on the NH coast down through the Cape. I don't think tomorrow is that great on the coast. Might be something where BINOVC develop after 18z or so. Seems like N-NE winds want to rule right along the coast as low pressure sortof hangs tough. Sunday looks great.

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has a lot of low level clouds right on the NH coast down through the Cape. I don't think tomorrow is that great on the coast. Might be something where BINOVC develop after 18z or so. Seems like N-NE winds want to rule right along the coast as low pressure sortof hangs tough. Sunday looks great.

Immediate coast , you're probably right--the wind flip takes took long. CON and ASH flip to Northwest between 12z and 18z, and DAW closer to 18z. MOS has ASH and CON near 60 tomorrow, so at least there's nearby areas--away from the coast--to seek some refuge from the misery. 

I think with the early wind flip in much of the subforum the risk is tilted towards temps Verifying higher than current guidance.

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Immediate coast , you're probably right--the wind flip takes took long. CON and ASH flip to Northwest between 12z and 18z, and DAW closer to 18z. MOS has ASH and CON near 60 tomorrow, so at least there's nearby areas--away from the coast--to seek some refuge from the misery. 

I think with the early wind flip in much of the subforum the risk is tilted towards temps Verifying higher than current guidance.

Yeah I would feel better inland for sure, esp ASH..CON etc.  We'll have to watch wind direction because a more NE component will lock in the lower clouds east of the high terrain. Flip to N-NW will downslope the same areas.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Nice sheet drizzle right now. 41F

As rough as it gets today at the ski area.  This is why ski areas close this time of year.

32F at 3600ft and wind driven sheet rains and mist.  Decent cold wedge at H875-H9.

35F at 2,500ft and 38F at 1,500ft this afternoon.  Nothing enjoyable about riding a chairlift in this...30s and rain with good SE winds to boot.

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tomorrow has that look of either the sun burns it off or bust...

it'll come down to whether we are plagued with higher level debris ceilings because there's almost no momentum for wind into the lower parts of the BL to aid in mixing ...etc..etc..  if we cap this saturated cold sludge, where the sun's but a sallow glowing orb over top, this ordeal will gobble up half the weekend.  

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