Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[dendrite]

37F and -SHSN for the past hour. It's chilly with the wind and overcast. Fast forward to tomorrow please.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wow, passed that on to TK

Those 3km WRF and NAM crack runs were right with the QPF.  Its so hard to tell when to trust those things.  The BTV4 had 1.40" of QPF yesterday at the 12z run and even that might have been low somehow.  I should've been more gung-ho as these late season (and early season storms) seem to have the ability to hold a lot more moisture and squeeze it out over the mountain.  Given the fog and -RN and drizzle yesterday and for several days prior and even such a wet ground and boundary layer, there was definitely a lot of low level moisture for this to act on.  Not like some arctic airmass that's really dry trying to squeeze flakes out.

The snow is almost entirely graupel and small flakes...so in order to get these snowfall amounts at no more than 7-8:1 ratios, it had to unload some moisture last night.

Probably the same amount of moisture that left 30" during the mid-March Stella storm, lol.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

That's key.  I wish I went up north today. More pics please. 

April pow.  The season that keeps on snowing.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

April pow.  The season that keeps on snowing.

 

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Those 3km WRF and NAM crack runs were right with the QPF.  Its so hard to tell when to trust those things.  The BTV4 had 1.40" of QPF yesterday at the 12z run and even that might have been low somehow.  I should've been more gung-ho as these late season (and early season storms) seem to have the ability to hold a lot more moisture and squeeze it out over the mountain.  Given the fog and -RN and drizzle yesterday and for several days prior and even such a wet ground and boundary layer, there was definitely a lot of low level moisture for this to act on.  Not like some arctic airmass that's really dry trying to squeeze flakes out.

The snow is almost entirely graupel and small flakes...so in order to get these snowfall amounts at no more than 7-8:1 ratios, it had to unload some moisture last night.

Probably the same amount of moisture that left 30" during the mid-March Stella storm, lol.

 

 

 

Not intending to caboose your sentiments and posting efforts with any troll reduction of value ... but seriously, it's going to be pretty interesting how whip-lashed that setting gets over the next couple of days.

Even tomorrow ... the unilaterally agreed upon and amazingly consistent pattern change that's actually already underway (we just won't reach critical mass until tomorrow noon-ish... -->), has a quasi over-the-top appeal about it; and by that we mean that it's coming in over NY and NW NE before Long Island.

Which means... you're losing this thing in pretty dramatic climate jolt fashion. You're going from mountain-winter to mounter summer (late spring) even there, by tomorrow..definitely Monday either way.  

We're busting MOS today down here by a click or two - which is typical for NW flows of exhaustive CAA in post equinox sun.  That could be common over the next three -

One thing though... you could actually go back to a wintry vibe if some of these flatter appeals verify beyond Tuesday. There's some argument among members and model types for a chilly high to slip e across Ontario and that could park the boundary down near RUT ..which would put those summits back into the misty/flurry schits if that sets up - 

[edit actually we haven't busted MOS ..yet.  we'll see]

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Not intending to caboose your sentiments and posting efforts with any troll reduction of value ... but seriously, it's going to be pretty interesting how whip-lashed that setting gets over the next couple of days.

Even tomorrow ... the unilaterally agreed upon and amazingly consistent pattern change that's actually already underway (we just won't reach critical mass until tomorrow noon-ish... -->), has a quasi over-the-top appeal about it; and by that we mean that it's coming in over NY and NW NE before Long Island.

Which means... you're losing this thing in pretty dramatic climate jolt fashion. You're going from mountain-winter to mounter summer (late spring) even there, by tomorrow..definitely Monday either way.  

We're busting MOS today down here by a click or two - which is typical for NW flows of exhaustive CAA in post equinox sun.  That could be common over the next three -

One thing though... you could actually go back to a wintry vibe if some of these flatter appeals verify beyond Tuesday. There's some argument among members and model types for a chilly high to slip e across Ontario and that could park the boundary down near RUT ..which would put those summits back into the misty/flurry schits if that sets up - 

if you have ever skied when the temps are 65-75 degrees you will never forget how much fun it is. With those depths up there its set up to be absolutely classic.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

if you have ever skied when the temps are 65-75 degrees you will never forget how much fun it is. With those depths up there its set up to be absolutely classic.

I have to agree.   Sunscreen required,often shorts but plenty of snow underfoot but certainly no longer powder.   Wish I kept at it but I turned to running and once you become an obsessive runner you avoid other sports that could create an injury which would limit your running.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I have to agree.   Sunscreen required,often shorts but plenty of snow underfoot but certainly no longer powder.   Wish I kept at it but I turned to running and once you become an obsessive runner you avoid other sports that could create an injury which would limit your running.

There's definitely a dependency of sorts that develops from running.  We can 'work out' in other ways, but... once you've crossed the line as someone that can habitually run, nothing really feels quite the same as a solid run-related work out.  Once you are there, other aspects that related to better health seem to just get intrinsically more appealing, too so it lends its self.

There's a book out there, "Born To Run" ... can't recall the author, but, he/she used anthropological/archaeological sciences to demonstrate how humans probably spent large portions of their waking time running during their evolutionary past, as the primary means for commuting prior to the invention of the wheel and so forth... We ran both for being prey, and for purposes of predation.    

Anyway, once one taps into that evolutionary past and resurfaces that unique bi-pedal adaptation of the human condition, it's hard to get away from it - it's just a joke at parties for modern humans because we are no longer dependent upon that means.  However, there are tremendous health benefits from returning to our evolutionary past (we could spin this conjecture off into dietary habits, too), if one can bio-mechanically do it.  And, most can whether they realize it or not; the intent of nature is that most people can walk -duh.  Barring some systemic/handicap thing that is true. ... and even walking greater distances actually qualifies.   

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I have to agree.   Sunscreen required,often shorts but plenty of snow underfoot but certainly no longer powder.   Wish I kept at it but I turned to running and once you become an obsessive runner you avoid other sports that could create an injury which would limit your running.

MRI results came back today, complete tears and retractions of the supraspinatus and infraspinatus, back under the knife again soon. We old

[eekuasepinniW]

This wind is a little crazy... couple gusts from the NNW that were easily 40+ just now.  

[weathafella]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

MRI results came back today, complete tears and retractions of the supraspinatus and infraspinatus, back under the knife again soon. We old

That's rough!  Good luck with it Steve!

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

That's rough!  Good luck with it Steve!

2nd time same shoulder, oh well. Thanks

[weathafella]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

2nd time same shoulder, oh well. Thanks

Shoulder surgery is under rated for the pain involved.  My wife's had 2-still with some pain but she's been told no more surgery.

[eekuasepinniW]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

supraspinatus and infraspinatus

You know you're old when even the names of the muscles you injure sound like dinosaurs.

Good luck with the surgery.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

You know you're old when even the names of the muscles you injure sound like dinosaurs.

Good luck with the surgery.

Lol my familiarity with those tendons is breeding contempt. Thanks though, hope you are fully healed from that awful injury. Long summer to go.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I have to agree.   Sunscreen required,often shorts but plenty of snow underfoot but certainly no longer powder.   Wish I kept at it but I turned to running and once you become an obsessive runner you avoid other sports that could create an injury which would limit your running.

Yup

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

This wind is a little crazy... couple gusts from the NNW that were easily 40+ just now.  

Getting more sun and deeper mixing now. I love early April for wind sometimes. 

[wxeyeNH]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Getting more sun and deeper mixing now. I love early April for wind sometimes. 

Couple of peaks of sun an hour ago but now solidly overcast again.  Temp got up to 36.7F but dropped back down to 36F.  Low 40's a fail today.  Snow showers ended an hour ago and vis is now unlimited to the SW.  Snowstake is officially at zero!  Snowcover line should "gallop" northeast bound starting tomorrow....

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Not intending to caboose your sentiments and posting efforts with any troll reduction of value ... but seriously, it's going to be pretty interesting how whip-lashed that setting gets over the next couple of days.

Even tomorrow ... the unilaterally agreed upon and amazingly consistent pattern change that's actually already underway (we just won't reach critical mass until tomorrow noon-ish... -->), has a quasi over-the-top appeal about it; and by that we mean that it's coming in over NY and NW NE before Long Island.

Which means... you're losing this thing in pretty dramatic climate jolt fashion. You're going from mountain-winter to mounter summer (late spring) even there, by tomorrow..definitely Monday either way.  

We're busting MOS today down here by a click or two - which is typical for NW flows of exhaustive CAA in post equinox sun.  That could be common over the next three -

One thing though... you could actually go back to a wintry vibe if some of these flatter appeals verify beyond Tuesday. There's some argument among members and model types for a chilly high to slip e across Ontario and that could park the boundary down near RUT ..which would put those summits back into the misty/flurry schits if that sets up - 

[edit actually we haven't busted MOS ..yet.  we'll see]

Yeah I love this time of year for the rapid switches...similar to like an early season October snowstorm when two days later its back to 60s and sunshine.

The snowpack though isn't going anywhere.  It really is pretty nuts how much snow is on the ground on the mountain, and not fluff like the middle of the season.  Just dense deep pack that's 3-9 feet deep from 1,500-4,000ft. 

Should be like a summer beach-on-snow come Monday afternoon.

[powderfreak]

Looks like 34F is the highest hourly observation locally at MVL ASOS...big temp bust today.

With only reaching 34F the couple inches of snow we got at home last night remains on the ground.  The grass areas that were showing are covered back up and it looks decidedly not like April right now out there.

Edit: And just like that 36F now at 5pm, ha.

[eyewall]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I love this time of year for the rapid switches...similar to like an early season October snowstorm when two days later its back to 60s and sunshine.

The snowpack though isn't going anywhere.  It really is pretty nuts how much snow is on the ground on the mountain, and not fluff like the middle of the season.  Just dense deep pack that's 3-9 feet deep from 1,500-4,000ft. 

Should be like a summer beach-on-snow come Monday afternoon.

I was on Bolton this evening for an event (not skiing) and I was amazed how much of a different world it was up there right now! Trees still had snow in them in most areas as well. So long as there is not much wind overnight it should make for a great sunrise shot. I may need to get the drone up early

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, eyewall said:

I was on Bolton this evening for an event (not skiing) and I was amazed how much of a different world it was up there right now! Trees still had snow in them in most areas as well. So long as there is not much wind overnight it should make for a great sunrise shot. I may need to get the drone up early

Nice morning.

[powderfreak]

Time for Tippy's whiplash... we'll see how quickly we go from mid-winter snow to spring.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah that'll go quick this week

[dendrite]

Creeping up. MAV with its first 80 for CON. We mix out winter this morning after a low of 27.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I love this time of year for the rapid switches...similar to like an early season October snowstorm when two days later its back to 60s and sunshine.

The snowpack though isn't going anywhere.  It really is pretty nuts how much snow is on the ground on the mountain, and not fluff like the middle of the season.  Just dense deep pack that's 3-9 feet deep from 1,500-4,000ft. 

Should be like a summer beach-on-snow come Monday afternoon.

Obviously, there's a lot of hyperbole in that sentiment ...but, just the same, it's going down actually.  

In more practical terms, it may not go "completely" down this week, but the inevitability of losing snow-mass is set into motion as of noon today; and will continue to eat large chunks as we go forward.  

Nocturnal temperatures are forecast to be nearly 50 F down our way during this warm stint. I am wondering if the night times temperature behavior up there, at elevations, should still stop the assault in this pattern, at this time of year.  Wonder what the cut off is... It's like a momentum thing - 

Either way, over the decades I've noticed that when this first sort of heat assault wafts through NE ... the lower CT river gets it's annual flood warning within some drainage time dependency later...  This strikes me as one of those times.  

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obviously, there's a lot of hyperbole in that sentiment ...but, just the same, it's going down actually.  

In more practical terms, it may not go "completely" down this week, but the inevitability of losing snow-mass is set into motion as of noon today; and will continue to eat large chunks as we go forward.  

Nocturnal temperatures are forecast to be nearly 50 F down our way during this warm stint. I am wondering if the night times temperature behavior up there, at elevations, should still stop the assault in this pattern, at this time of year.  Wonder what the cut off is... It's like a momentum thing - 

Either way, over the decades I've noticed that when this first sort of heat assault wafts through NE ... the lower CT river gets it's annual flood warning within some drainage time dependency later...  This strikes me as one of those times.  

Well yes it is going down... I was more thinking in terms of the fact that there's 9 feet and 4 inches of snowpack at the COOP and that it will take some time to get that and probably 25" of liquid to melt.  The energy required to remove the snow from the mountain will take weeks and weeks of assault. 

The nighttime temperatures though you reference at elevation will likely be fairly mild.  The valley (say where I live) will be colder each night I'm sure, as it is a lot of the mornings that aren't CAA driven.  Even this morning it was 20F at home and 22F at 4,000ft.  When we get into a warmer southwesterly flow pattern though I can be even 20 degrees colder than the mid/upper slopes...they stay well mixed at 20-30mph sustained while its clear and calm in the shadows of the valley 3,000ft below. 

What will end up happening is 4,000ft will have a high of 50F and low of 40F, while at home I'll do 65/30 or something.  Given normal mixing, my high is usually 15 degrees warmer than the hill and then my low can almost be the exact opposite if the sky is clear.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well yes it is going down... I was more thinking in terms of the fact that there's 9 feet and 4 inches of snowpack at the COOP and that it will take some time to get that and probably 25" of liquid to melt.  The energy required to remove the snow from the mountain will take weeks and weeks of assault. 

The nighttime temperatures though you reference at elevation will likely be fairly mild.  The valley (say where I live) will be colder each night I'm sure, as it is a lot of the mornings that aren't CAA driven.  Even this morning it was 20F at home and 22F at 4,000ft.  When we get into a warmer southwesterly flow pattern though I can be even 20 degrees colder than the mid/upper slopes...they stay well mixed at 20-30mph sustained while its clear and calm in the shadows of the valley 3,000ft below. 

What will end up happening is 4,000ft will have a high of 50F and low of 40F, while at home I'll do 65/30 or something.  Given normal mixing, my high is usually 15 degrees warmer than the hill and then my low can almost be the exact opposite if the sky is clear.

Mountain meteorology is fascinating, isn't it - 

man.  I recall a story a friend told me about driving to this 12,000 (or something) ' station on a 14,500' peak west of Boulder Colorado one day in early August - touristy thing.  They had a mountain convective cell go by that started as light rain with instant thunder claps, flipped to heavy silver grapple with more instant flicks and booms, then flipped to low-visibility packing pellets ...flick-boom, then ended as light right just before the sun came back out ...all inside of like 7 minutes.  No snow left on the ground, either, so you wouldn't have known.  

But, you're hanging around at 12,000 feet that's like half way up the CB tower so it stands to reason. Anyway, mountain weather is more about a behavior than a climatology - heh. Because climo would definitely 'hide' those sort of extreme short duration impacts.  

[eekuasepinniW]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

but, just the same, it's going down actually.  

nominated for most pointless clarification of the year.

[dendrite]

Snowbliterated

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Snowbliterated

Yup, down to about a 20' patch in my yard.  Spring!