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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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This is some absurd cold at this point.

Another morning near 0F in the valley....average low is 22F.

Not counting today (which will be another massive negative departure), the past 16 days has averaged -12.3F from normal at MVL and with a cold high temp today (average is 44F and we may not sniff mid-30s) we may lower that further.

I will say I think we have done everything we can to maximize these cold shots as we've had fresh snowpack on the ground for all the arctic air masses, with consistent refreshes.

 

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Boy was I ever wrong!   ha -

I speculated earlier in the winter that we may have an unusual warm, early spring this year ... At the time that was base upon observations relating to the pervasive/persistent southern heights that plagued the whole way. They never relaxed during D/J/F ... too much gradient.

It was perpetually contributing to higher than normal middle tropospheric wind velocities ... causing a large scale interference pattern that tended to damp and/or shear smaller scaled features/events in the flow.

I thought there was some chance that as spring neared that would take over and expand N.  The thinking was, seasonal cold relaxes with spring, would stop compressing it south and it would balloon - so to speak.  I thought we were well on our way back when we got balmy that week in latter February.

But what actually appears to be happening is that the southern heights relaxed ...as the northern cold also began retreating... This is why I suspect we are seeing a parade of weakly closed mid level gyres ejected out of the west and propagating through the E.  A month ago, these weak features/events would have been smeared out of existence by the maelstrom; this weaker gradient thing that we finally have is allowing them to hold together.  Interesting.  It's why it seem we get piddled on with two hours rains/mixes that move off - we really do need a solid 1.5 strata rain bomb or two before summer. 

I was just told by text/IM that if March ended today, it would be the first time in weather keeping history that March was colder than normal when all three Dec/Jan/Feb were above normal.  Check that, but it certainly 'seems' that could be true.   Or perhaps it was just "averaged colder than" DJF combined...  Either way, the result is clad. brrr.  not early spring... 

 

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