Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Largest special marine warning ever?

Not to mention blizzard warnings near the summits

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

All Boston Met Winters since 1891 Hard to see how we rise 3 degrees in 20-40 years at this rate, so many many factors involved in climate change, certainly on the low scale of predictability. 

 

 

I would bet BOS warming would be muted by the ocean?  Maybe less swings or more tempered?

BTV on the other hand is the poster child of global warming, haha.  The number of warm records BTV sets throughout the course of a year is staggering these days.  Daily highs, high mins, monthly temps, seasonal temps, etc.  It seems like the sky is the limit.

Looks like they got second warmest met winter since 1880.  Couldn't beat last winter though so maybe we are cooling off now lol.

[eekuasepinniW]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Largest special marine warning ever?

I've been waiting for Hawaii to come up again so I could share this.  Fascinating how the Kauai radar manages to cover essentially none of Kauai.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't necessarily disagree with many of your points....but when people use comparisons like NJ to NH or CT to NH, those aren't usually figurative to the listeners. They actually believe that they will have a new jersey climate within several decades. I find those statements pretty disingenuous. I've seen articles posted in mainstream news media that claim Boston will average like 20 inches of snow in just a couple decades. Is it possible? Sure, it's also possible that Hansen's cooling occurs too due to Greenland meltwater into the North Atlantic and we actually have colder winters by mid 21st century....but likely? The evidence doesn't really support it. So while a pretty wide range of climates are plausible in several decades, puppeting the less likely scenarios never sits well with me when we're in an age where we are having trouble convincing enough people about climate change as it is....there is no reason to make the science less credible by making those type of claims that turn out to be a lot of conjecture moreso than science. We've already seen it with hurricanes, the NAO/AO (remember when climate change caused -NAOs a few years ago?), and tornadoes (the 2011 outbreak was the beginning of climate change taking over!!), etc. Not to mention, the literature admits how poor the climate modeling has been in predicting seasonal/spatial trends particularly on a regional basis.

 

Exceptionally well put there!

We also live in an era where there is an alarmingly large number of individuals in higher ranking geopolitical echelons, where laws and policies that effect the modus operandi of industrialized civility, that will never see the GW as credible science, regardless of whether conjecture were completely removed from the discussion.  To those, they would not believe in gravity if they swerved off a cliff ...and they're perfectly willing to take the rest of Humanity with them on their plunge in the name of quarterly profits. 

Also, .. I almost get the impression that GW is pervasively enough known in enough walks of civility at this point that the issue is really sided/polarized more in masses, than there are "undecideds" - I mean, at this point folks either believe it or not.  And, what pisses me off as much as those that bandy about it irresponsibly to you, is that those that either believe or not, don't maintain their decision based upon much critical/mathematical evaluation/approach to reality - the subject matter of GW is so hotly politicized too many people tend to knee-jerk react to the subject matter along some party line like they are on autopilot. 

Meanwhile, we don't have time to f around with thing, Will.  We really don't.  If as much of it is Human attributed, ... society is caught up standing around on the proverbial railroad tracks with the iron under foot starting to whir with impending [enter adjective] and the daily toil of humanity argues over the f shoe color they are wearing to the occasion.  It's like that scene in "Apollo 13", when the NASA engineers were squabbling over the most important systems to shut down in order to get the crew home to planet Earth safely, and the electrician speaks up and says words to the affect of, "without power, what's the point?!  They don't open heat shields; they don't open the parachute, they are dead"... Suddenly, the argument comes into focus real fast - 

right now, Humanity is stills in the squabbling part of that scene when borrowing it as a metaphor. Only in this paradigm, we can't have a civilization without a planet -

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I've been waiting for Hawaii to come up again so I could share this.  Fascinating how the Kauai radar manages to cover essentially none of Kauai.

Nearly useless. 

[Typhoon Tip]

We'll see how it plays out ...  but frankly, this looks almost identical to the numbers and concern model that was in place leading to that CAA wind warn scenario earlier in the winter -

These "normally" underwhelm - maybe this will work out better. 

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Exceptionally well put there!

We also live in an era where there is an alarmingly large number of individuals in higher ranking geopolitical echelons, where laws and policies that effect the modus operandi of industrialized civility, that will never see the GW as credible science, regardless of whether conjecture were completely removed from the discussion.  To those, they would not believe in gravity if they swerved off a cliff ...and they're perfectly willing to take the rest of Humanity with them on their plunge in the name of quarterly profits. 

Also, .. I almost get the impression that GW is pervasively enough known in enough walks of civility at this point that the issue is really sided/polarized more in masses, than there are "undecideds" - I mean, at this point folks either believe it or not.  And, what pisses me off as much as those that bandy about it irresponsibly to you, is that those that either believe or not, don't maintain their decision based upon much critical/mathematical evaluation/approach to reality - the subject matter of GW is so hotly politicized too many people tend to knee-jerk react to the subject matter along some party line like they are on autopilot. 

Meanwhile, we don't have time to f around with thing, Will.  We really don't.  If as much of it is Human attributed, ... society is caught up standing around on the proverbial railroad tracks with the iron under foot starting to whir with impending [enter adjective] and the daily toil of humanity argues over the f shoe color they are wearing to the occasion.  It's like that scene in "Apollo 13", when the NASA engineers were squabbling over the most important systems to shut down in order to get the crew home to planet Earth safely, and the electrician speaks up and says words to the affect of, "without power, what's the point?!  They don't open heat shields; they don't open the parachute, they are dead"... Suddenly, the argument comes into focus real fast - 

right now, Humanity is stills in the squabbling part of that scene when borrowing it as a metaphor. Only in this paradigm, we can't have a civilization without a planet -

id put AI as a much higher existential threat to humanity than CC. 

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

I would bet BOS warming would be muted by the ocean?  Maybe less swings or more tempered?

BTV on the other hand is the poster child of global warming, haha.  The number of warm records BTV sets throughout the course of a year is staggering these days.  Daily highs, high mins, monthly temps, seasonal temps, etc.  It seems like the sky is the limit.

Looks like they got second warmest met winter since 1880.  Couldn't beat last winter though so maybe we are cooling off now lol.

Site issues well documented 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

id put AI as a much higher existential threat to humanity than CC. 

In terms of scaling threats (muah hahaha) ...not sure I'd disagree... 

The difference in those two dystopian disaster models is that with CC, humans are adaptive ...more so than any other higher order organism on the planet.  Numbers would survive..oh, there would be population correction, whether in pulsed kill offs, or pathogenicity run amuk that has vectors tracked back to warm climate...  combined with self annihilation by way of nuclear holocaust and flight or fight complexities over dwindling resources... ... Although, and some would make it... and enough technology in place that the reset dial doesn't have to click all the way back to 0, either.

But, self aware ...most importantly, self-preserving automates would probably behave like the Borg (for lack of better word) from Trekdom  - assimilate, or it's the highway. Or, they'd just assune "eliminate the imperfects"  

[Damage In Tolland]

You wonder if SNE climate becomes like D.C. In our lifetime?

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if SNE climate becomes like D.C. In our lifetime?

I thought BDL already was during the summer?

[CoastalWx]

Kevin's Davis has a climate of Havana in summer. Amazing.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin's Davis has a climate of Havana in summer. Amazing.

I don't have it in a mulch bed btw. It's just in a bed of rocks . 

At least I have mine set up and not still in a box on Morch 1, that my wife spent hundreds of her hard earned dollars on at Xmas . 

Embarrassing 

[Hoth]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In terms of scaling threats (muah hahaha) ...not sure I'd disagree... 

The difference in those two dystopian disaster models is that with CC, humans are adaptive ...more so than any other higher order organism on the planet.  Numbers would survive..oh, there would be population correction, whether in pulsed kill offs, or pathogenicity run amuk that has vectors tracked back to warm climate...  combined with self annihilation by way of nuclear holocaust and flight or fight complexities over dwindling resources... ... Although, and some would make it... and enough technology in place that the reset dial doesn't have to click all the way back to 0, either.

But, self aware ...most importantly, self-preserving automates would probably behave like the Borg (for lack of better word) from Trekdom  - assimilate, or it's the highway. Or, they'd just assune "eliminate the imperfects"  

Well said. We'll be lucky to reach 2100 in my opinion. When AGI comes along, we'll be as ants compared to it. How do we treat ants? We don't hate them, but neither do we have any qualms about bulldozing their colony. If we don't perfectly align AI's goals with our own, were probably toast. We're pouring incredible resources into developing this tech across the world, from schools to every corporation to militaries, but little gets assigned to safety. This is humanity's ultimate hurdle. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Cleaning out leaves today from a chipmunk tunnel andthis thing popped out of the tunnel under the leaves.. absolutely freaked me out. Yellow spotted salamander 

http://

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don't have it in a mulch bed btw. It's just in a bed of rocks . 

At least I have mine set up and not still in a box on Morch 1, that my wife spent hundreds of her hard earned dollars on at Xmas . 

Embarrassing 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Well said. We'll be lucky to reach 2100 in my opinion. When AGI comes along, we'll be as ants compared to it. How do we treat ants? We don't hate them, but neither do we have any qualms about bulldozing their colony. If we don't perfectly align AI's goals with our own, were probably toast. We're pouring incredible resources into developing this tech across the world, from schools to every corporation to militaries, but little gets assigned to safety. This is humanity's ultimate hurdle. 

Skynet will eventually become aware.

[TalcottWx]

There's no way we become like DC in our lifetimes. Especially in Kevin's since he is so damn old.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if SNE climate becomes like D.C. In our lifetime?

Averaging 16" per year with almost no snowpack. The January 2011s and February 2013s and February 2015s will be gone forever. Eventually we might never snow again. 

[CoastalWx]

How long will it take for my snow average to drop below BTV's average?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

How long will it take for my snow average to drop below BTV's average?

Don't worry, we won't be reduced to BTV winters for at least a century. 

[eekuasepinniW]

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

You're right, we should probably knock LCI down a few kts.

[eekuasepinniW]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You're right, we should probably knock LCI down a few kts.

Don't you dare.  I do great with west wind.  

I see LCI just jumped to 56.  Holding steady in the fog at 40.8 here.  I want to mount a VP2 on my car and graph the drive to the airport.

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Don't you dare.  I do great with west wind.  

I see LCI just jumped to 56.  Holding steady in the fog at 40.8 here.  I want to mount a VP2 on my car and graph the drive to the airport.

 

We were a balmy +12.6C at 1000 feet at GYX. But stuck at 5.5 at the surface.

[Hazey]

Interesting factoid for my hood. Halifax(YHZ) had its snowiest February on record with 52" and also its 8th warmest on record. The temp swung so wildly that by the last day of the month we just had a few piles of snow left. Snow retention ftl. Guess you can have well above temps and well above snowfall.

[Professional Lurker]

Snow! ...i forgot what it looked like.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

Snow! ...i forgot what it looked like.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, Ben just yelled "daddy, it's snowing".

[Cold Miser]

12 hours ago, Hoth said:

Well said. We'll be lucky to reach 2100 in my opinion. When AGI comes along, we'll be as ants compared to it. How do we treat ants? We don't hate them, but neither do we have any qualms about bulldozing their colony. If we don't perfectly align AI's goals with our own, were probably toast. We're pouring incredible resources into developing this tech across the world, from schools to every corporation to militaries, but little gets assigned to safety. This is humanity's ultimate hurdle. 

Pretty grim sceneario.  While I don't doubt that AI will be playing a significant role in our future, I am just not sure how negative the impact will be, and if it will be as soon as you note.  There will be advanced robotics, and automation on a huge scale, but remember there is a price to pay for this.  As much as people want to tout wind, solar, wave, and other sources of power generation the fact is that we still rely on oil as our main resource in this arena.  Virtually everything that our modern society produces still involves a petroleum base.  Every thing from the device you are using to search for porn on the web, to the food you eat, petroleum plays a role.  Even the solar panels, and the infrastructure around them are petroleum based.  It is the liquid of the gods and it will take much for us to ween ourselves off of it...Unless we completely run out before that time.  Tar sands are not the answer, but in fact a last ditch effort to keep the petroleum machine rolling.  You can do the research yourself, but the EROI for tar sands extraction, production, and everything around the process is not near what a barrel of sweet crude can give us. The UAE knows the end of mass oil production is near so they have gone through great lengths to construct the outrageous playgrounds in the dessert such as Dubai at break neck speeds as a way to make money in a manner beyond their traditional oil production.  What they are doing over there is madness. We are not meant to inhabit that terrain as we are doing and the only way the whole circus works is through petroleum.

I digress though. ...Back to AI. In order for the Terminator and Matrix type of machines to exist there will be a need for HUGE amounts of energy to be used.  The embodied energy to produce a seemingly simple memory chip is quite high, so I can only imagine what the embodied energy will be required, (cradle to grave) to create AI on a massive scale.  One scenario would be that such tools would only be available to the wealthy...constructed and maintained of course at the expense of slave labor by the rest of us.      

[Ginx snewx]

Too many science fiction movies?