ErinInTheSky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Very windy even with clear skies here. When a good convective burst comes through, it'll translate more of those winds to the surface. I'm looking forward to this. You can now thank me instead of hate me for moving from Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Very windy even with clear skies here. When a good convective burst comes through, it'll translate more of those winds to the surface. I'm looking forward to this. You can now thank me instead of hate me for moving from Louisiana. I was about to say bring us your hurricanes but then I remembered what N Gulf hurricanes looked like and I decided you can keep them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 RAP gets 1500+ SBCAPE into the area briefly before the storms arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Well, it was decent but not devastating. Had a 49mph gust, no hail and kept power. Still raining and windy W at 27 gusting 37 mph, temp is down to 57.7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 RAP is quite bullish on a parameter maximum over DC area and Central Maryland this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 It's a damn shame this line wasn't like 2 hours slower or else it's be a perfect setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Here come the wide warning swaths from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1156 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Nelson County in central Virginia... Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Staunton in western Virginia... Rockingham County in western Virginia... Western Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Page County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Albemarle County in central Virginia... West central Greene County in central Virginia... Augusta County in western Virginia... The City of Waynesboro in western Virginia... The City of Harrisonburg in western Virginia... Southeastern Highland County in western Virginia... Southeastern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Southeastern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 1245 PM EST * At 1156 AM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Rough Run to near Yost, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Harrisonburg, Staunton, Waynesboro, Front Royal, Strasburg, Woodstock, Moorefield, Stuarts Draft, Bridgewater, Crozet, Luray, Broadway, Grottoes, Timberville, Shenandoah, Massanutten, Crimora, Mount Jackson, Stanley and Sherando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Activity starting to fire just east of the mountains. It's happening.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Wow, 80kts of shear on the SPC meso in Loudoun County area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Shear that strong might even tear updrafts apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: Shear that strong might even tear updrafts apart Or cause a tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Or cause a tornado Best you're going to manage with a linear mode developing is a bookend vortex, tail end charlie or embedded spinny (famous last words) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: I was about to say bring us your hurricanes but then I remembered what N Gulf hurricanes looked like and I decided you can keep them. Thats a good ONE LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1212 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Allegany County in western Maryland... Northeastern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Western Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northeastern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 1245 PM EST * At 1212 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Lake Gordon to 7 miles west of Wardensville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Cumberland, Martinsburg, Strasburg, Romney, Hancock, Paw Paw, Millwood Pike, Inwood, Stephens City, Berkeley Springs, Wardensville, Star Tannery, Ridgeley, Potomac Park, Middletown, Wiley Ford, Springfield, Great Cacapon and Clear Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Looks like 63kts at ~5000 ft on LWX radar just west of Front Royal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like 63kts at ~5000 ft on LWX radar just west of Front Royal. 70kts or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 I really hate thin lined storms. Need some good sups instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Area on radar just west of Winchester looks like it could be primed to have some spinny potential once it matures - bow in the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 The SPC mesoanalysis numbers look meh, but that's because the cape hasn't come up fast enough. If you look at the supercell composite and choose the option that makes a forecast in time, the values become quite healthy in DC/Baltimore metro right ahead of the line. The low-level shear is quite strong. If storms were initiating from scratch, I think we'd have supercells for sure. But the existing linear structure makes that tougher, although I would absolutely not rule out the line developing a few supercell structures as it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Hate to be a debbie downer, but very little lightning with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Hate to be a debbie downer, but very little lightning with this I mean they are just now ramping up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1226 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... East central Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... South central Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northern Orange County in central Virginia... Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Culpeper County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Southern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Page County in northwestern Virginia... Northern Albemarle County in central Virginia... Greene County in central Virginia... * Until 115 PM EST * At 1226 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Strasburg to 8 miles southeast of Massanutten, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Culpeper, Front Royal, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Brambleton, Warrenton, Strasburg, Orange, Madison, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Luray, Bealeton, Shenandoah, Stephens City, Haymarket, Stanley, Middleburg and Stanardsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017 Areas affected...South-central PA...far eastern WV...MD...DC...VA...and far northwestern NC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56... Valid 011725Z - 011830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56 continues. SUMMARY...Although storms have weakened recently, they are expected to strengthen again and pose a damaging wind threat across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56 through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown weakening in the vertical depth of the line of convection as it crossed the higher terrain of the Appalachian Mountains and encountered only a marginally unstable airmass. Lightning trends have trended downward as well. With time, this line should re-intensify across central/western VA and into far northwestern NC as it encounters a more buoyant airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s and MLCAPE ranging from 250-1000 J/kg. Damaging winds will remain the primary threat. Although not immediately likely, there may also be some increase in the threat for a tornado or two with eastward extent across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56 (including the DC and Baltimore metro areas), as southerly to southwesterly low-level flow veers and strengthens with height, with enough effective SRH to support embedded circulations within the line. ..Gleason.. 03/01/2017 ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Days like this I really miss TWC. It was always hilariously overhyped but it was good background noise to listen to when I was in weather mode. Accuweather looks like it's being televised from a local elementary school on a budget of popsicle sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1232 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Nelson County in central Virginia... Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia... Orange County in central Virginia... Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Albemarle County in central Virginia... Southern Greene County in central Virginia... East central Augusta County in western Virginia... * Until 115 PM EST * At 1232 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Massanutten to near Lowesville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Charlottesville, Orange, Crozet, Shipman, Schuyler, Free Union, Wintergreen, Afton, Campbell, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Gordonsville, Ruckersville, Nellysford, Ivy, Arrington, Scottsville, Esmont, Lovingston and Piney River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Am I the only one not bummed? These storms are going to ramp up fast, and they just extended the embedded tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Several wind reports coming out of Augusta County, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Is there any chance we get a round two later? I thought I saw people mention sounding looking juicy 0z-3z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Also, the north storms look pretty intense, those are the ones that will be heading over my area in Gburg. No lightning but they have to recover after passing over the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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