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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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The line of convection in WV will probably fragment as it crosses the highest terrain, which could produce tornadic supercells moving rapidly into the I-95 corridor mid-day and early afternoon. I suspect a zone just south of DCA towards RIC might be most at risk for this but a second track could form in MD and se PA. The Midwest trailing low is deepening and has a prominent dry tongue feature now in eastern IN, western OH and I expect a second vigorous to severe squall line to develop in the surface trough now moving through w/c IN around 18z when it reaches w/c OH. This would be the focus for later damaging wind gusts through the Mid-Atlantic. So essentially there are two periods for very strong winds, one around 18-20z and the second one around 23z. 

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6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

The 14Z HRRR seems to be predicting a tornadic cell in central MoCo at 2P today.  Strong cell on the sim radar, a bullseye of 0-1km helicity into the ~500 range, and a bullseye of SigTor 3+

That would be a bullseye on me. Doesn't surprise me - 75 degrees now and full sunshine in Gaithersburg.

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14 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

The 14Z HRRR seems to be predicting a tornadic cell in central MoCo at 2P today.  Strong cell on the sim radar, a bullseye of 0-1km helicity into the ~500 range, and a bullseye of SigTor 3+

A Bob Chill wedge? I'll assume that propagates towards Eastern HoCo. Gulp. 

 

Edit: Olney could be a great spot today for chasing. Maybe stop in at Waredaca. Farmhouse brewery yes, but some flat views all around with other farms near by. Has a bit of Midwest feel. Was there for some severe last summer. Got great pictures. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

winchester fail

Does it need to be clear all the way to the surface.  These clouds look very low.  Don't you still get good heating in the lower levels?

I'm hoping for a Winchester fail, but do find this stuff interesting.

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