Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Boom....ef-2 confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Boom....ef-2 confirmed. Good call by the HRRR/RAP last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Good call HRRR Indeed....letse see if it wins today too. CTP just dropped a TOR and we got a pity meso to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Indeed....letse see if it wins today too. CTP just dropped a TOR and we got a pity meso to our NW. Because of what the meso said.... LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST AND INTERACT WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR STEVENSVILLE IN QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTY MARYLAND... Location...Bay City and Stevensville in Queen Anne's County Maryland Date...07/24/2017 Estimated Time...0129 AM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF2 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...125 mph Maximum Path Width...150 yards Path Length...2 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...38.970809, -76.343164 Ending lat/Lon...38.979050, -76.308880 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...1 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has confirmed a tornado near Stevensville in Queen Anne's County Maryland on 07/24/2017. A waterspout developed over the Chesapeake Bay between Annapolis and Stevensville, Maryland just south of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge as estimated by radar velocity from the Baltimore-Washington Airport Terminal Doppler Weather Radar. The waterspout moved ashore at 129 AM in the Bay City Area of Kent Island and then traveled northeast toward Stevensville, Maryland where it lifted at 133 AM after being on the ground for about 2 miles. Maximum winds were estimated at 125 mph which makes this an EF2 tornado. Several wood framed townhomes had the upper floors entirely lifted off along with the roof; several other homes had either roofs lifted off and tossed or received other damage. One business was destroyed. There was one injury to a person who was punctured by debris. In addition, there were trees and power lines down and some gas leaks were reported along with a structure fire to a home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Storms going up a little west, just north of Manassas. I'd love to see off this stormy period with a nice little nightcap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Storms going up a little west, just north of Manassas. I'd love to see off this stormy period with a nice little nightcap. lol i would love to see off this stormy period by actually seeing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Hell I left the security of mby rain shield and went to Rehoboth yesterday- still nothing more than a 5 minute light shower there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/07/24/late-night-tornado-on-marylands-eastern-shore-will-likely-be-confirmed-today/?utm_term=.0bf7710abb00 CWG article. They are as baffled as the rest of us. There wasn't much wind, let alone wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, Amped said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/07/24/late-night-tornado-on-marylands-eastern-shore-will-likely-be-confirmed-today/?utm_term=.0bf7710abb00 CWG article. They are as baffled as the rest of us. There wasn't much wind, let alone wind shear. Wasn't much wind? Did you see the photos of the damage? It is now a confirmed ef2 tornado with estimated winds of 125 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 I can't find 20mph winds in that warning on RadarScope. Definition of a pity warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 The best part about my trip to Rehoboth was going to Atlantic Liquors and scoring some Founders Sumatra Mountain Brown, which is virtually impossible to find anywhere now. That place kicks azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Wasn't much wind? Did you see the photos of the damage? It is now a confirmed ef2 tornado with estimated winds of 125 mph. Well here's the sounding. Looks better than I thought. That 78 DP really helping out the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Well here's the sounding. Looks better than I thought. That 78 DP really helping out the cape. I would guess the unexpected stronger rotation, and resulting waterspout turned tornado, is at least partially attributed to the land-water differential heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, Amped said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/07/24/late-night-tornado-on-marylands-eastern-shore-will-likely-be-confirmed-today/?utm_term=.0bf7710abb00 CWG article. They are as baffled as the rest of us. There wasn't much wind, let alone wind shear. HM basically live tweeted the entire thing. The setup became apparent about 10pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I can't find 20mph winds in that warning on RadarScope. Definition of a pity warning. I hate to second guess, but yeah, I'm really curious what they were seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 24, 2017 Author Share Posted July 24, 2017 I think Mt Holly dropped the ball on that warning last night and made the start time after the warning was issued. Radar def indicates strong couplet over bay at 115 coming onshore around 125 with really strong rotation. Warning issued at 127 saying tornado possible over Stevensville. The track starts at bay edge with 129 for a time stamp. Makes no sense at all. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, mappy said: I think Mt Holly dropped the ball on that warning last night and made the start time after the warning was issued. Radar def indicates strong couplet over bay at 115 coming onshore around 125 with really strong rotation. Warning issued at 127 saying tornado possible over Stevensville. The track starts at bay edge with 129 for a time stamp. Makes no sense at all. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Was LWX posting statements about it? I went to bed just as WxWatcher and someone else were posting about the cell's potential. I wonder how much and how well the neighboring weather offices pass off potential events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 24, 2017 Author Share Posted July 24, 2017 Was LWX posting statements about it? I went to bed just as WxWatcher and someone else were posting about the cell's potential. I wonder how much and how well the neighboring weather offices pass off potential events.I do not know, I was asleep . I imagine they had it up until it hit the east side of the bay and crossed into Mt Holly CWA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: HM basically live tweeted the entire thing. The setup became apparent about 10pm last night. Lol at you complaining about CWG and then trying to toot your own horn when you were posting links about how the HRRR was terrible with 2nd and 3rd round storms and asking what the point of the FFW were from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Another pity MD from SPC lol http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1418.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Late evening meh severe storms in MD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Late evening meh severe storms in MD lol I posted pics in the obs thread. Things got exciting here as that storm passed an hour ago. Rotation. Funnel cloud. Heavy rain with hail wind and sun all at the same time. Very unexpected and I guess local from nws lack of response but one of the crazier experiences I've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Not a severe storm here in Reisterstown but man was the CG amazing. One of the best lightning shows I've seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I posted pics in the obs thread. Things got exciting here as that storm passed an hour ago. Rotation. Funnel cloud. Heavy rain with hail wind and sun all at the same time. Very unexpected and I guess local from nws lack of response but one of the crazier experiences I've had. Better send those pics and stuff to LWX... LWX made no mention of rotation in their warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 What? No mention of being in the SLGT risk for Day 3? And LWX being gung-ho in their AFD? South/southwest flow returns for Thursday and with it, the return of heat and humidity. Highs will rebound back to near 90F with dew points rising back to near 70F. As the frontal system approaches late in the day, chances for showers/thunderstorms increase, and SPC has placed the region in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain at this time appears that it may come Thursday evening/night into Friday morning. See long term discussion below for more information. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure and its associated cold front will move into the area Thursday night before passing through Friday. A southerly flow ahead of this system will usher in plenty of moisture. Latest guidance shows PWATs close to 2 inches. An upper-level low associated with the cold front will also approach Thursday night before passing through Friday. Deep layer shear profiles should strengthen during this time. The forcing from shortwave energy associated with the upper-level low...the surface low and the cold front should trigger showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms have the potential to be severe due to the strengthening shear profiles. Damaging winds seem to be the primary threat...but the threat for isolated tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out with the surface low nearby. There is also a threat for locally heavy rainfall as well. There is the opportunity for multiple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday...and with PWATS around 2 inches this poses a threat for torrential downpours and localized flash flooding. Confidence in timing of heaviest thunderstorms and location remain low this far out...but there is an elevated threat for severe thunderstorms with localized flash flooding Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 25, 2017 Author Share Posted July 25, 2017 Put the Bay City/Stevensville Tornado path on a map. Survey is still considered preliminary, but can be found here: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201707242221-KPHI-NOUS41-PNSPHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, mappy said: Put the Bay City/Stevensville Tornado path on a map. That's awesome. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Parameters on GFS/NAM don't look all that impressive for Thursday. Could change with time. I'm out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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