yoda Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0432.html Most of the storms in the watchbox that are warned are moving eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 ..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE SEVERAL MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING OUTLOOK, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING: 1) THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREAS WERE RECONFIGURED IN PENNSYLVANIA TO REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT BEHIND A CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE AIRMASS IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO MERIT ANYMORE THAN A 5%/MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO FOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY, WHICH HAS SHOWN A RECENT UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. REF. MCD 1395 FOR MORE INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 Looks like areas that broke back into the sun are htiting 80ish again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 Looks like incoming training ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 Tor Warn south of Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted July 22, 2017 Share Posted July 22, 2017 Words cannot express how much I loathe the new weather.com layout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 FWIW - the 18z run of the experimental HRRR is pretty great for tomorrow and storms - looks like another multi-round day if you believe that output. Will be interesting to see what the NAMs print out this evening. Has been a good day of multi-round storms. Nothing like derecho levels but good old fashioned storms for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 41 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: FWIW - the 18z run of the experimental HRRR is pretty great for tomorrow and storms - looks like another multi-round day if you believe that output. Will be interesting to see what the NAMs print out this evening. Has been a good day of multi-round storms. Nothing like derecho levels but good old fashioned storms for many. 3km NAM has nothing through 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 3km NAM has nothing through 20z Radar blows up after 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 STW down by CHO... trees reported down in Greene County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 HRRR is pretty lame on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 Meh @ at the latest NAM. It says it's a snoozer unless you're up near the mason dixon line. HRRR isn't terribly impressive either. I'm almost out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 LWX AFD Uncertainty increases significantly by afternoon with regards to timing, coverage, and intensity of thunderstorms. CAPE/Shear parameters become conditionally supportive of at least marginally severe updrafts and modest storm organization...with MLCAPE ~1500 J/KG and EBS 25-35 knots. Storms may form along differential heating boundaries, remnant outflow boundaries, and with terrain circulations or storms may develop west of the area as an MCS and move across parts of the area. Primary severe threat remains scattered strong winds with isolated pockets of damaging wind in multicell clusters. Large hail may also accompany the strongest and most persistent updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23, 2017 Author Share Posted July 23, 2017 Meh @ at the latest NAM. It says it's a snoozer unless you're up near the mason dixon line. HRRR isn't terribly impressive either. I'm almost out. Works for meSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ok, need a roll call. Who is in for today? @yoda @Kmlwx@high risk@Ian@Ellinwood@Eskimo Joe I think I'm mostly out for SVR; I'll be thrilled if I can get some heavy rain, and I'm not even sure about that. The key seems to be this cluster southwest of DC. HRRR really blows it up and makes it the main player - at the least, it may put out a nice cirrus shield. If those storms are not correctly handled, I think we have a shot later. Still some heavy rain potential after dark too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Meh @ at the latest NAM. It says it's a snoozer unless you're up near the mason dixon line. HRRR isn't terribly impressive either. I'm almost out. imo forecasts this summer have been pretty wishy/washy, so i'm not out until a front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 Completely out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 Got a burst of heavy rain. Nothing else. Yesterday was a lot more exciting. We go back to hunting our next threat. Wish we could get a tropical threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 Really surprised why a flash flood watch was issued...doesn't seem to be any activity behind this first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really surprised why a flash flood watch was issued...doesn't seem to be any activity behind this first round. Models hint at redevelopment. Who knows if it'll be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 very rarely do we get severe here. i think tracking "strong" is a lot more reasonable. with that said, i think the first storm yesterday was strong. the 2nd one pretty solid (the clouds were awesome). today was just a rainer. looks like there's one more cell coming through shortly. not sure if it holds, but looks intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 http://www.wbaltv.com/article/possible-tornado-touches-down-in-stevensville/10349016 https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=kent+island&ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^search Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Larry Hogan @LarryHogan·11m Lt. Gov @BoydKRutherford & I offer support to all impacted by storms in Kent Island. We are working w/ locals to provide necessary resources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 The storm ripped walls, roofs and decks off of homes, bringing down trees and destroying cars in what some have described as a "war zone." Some of the hardest hit areas include the Ellendale community in Stevensville where several new homes were leveled. Those homes were unoccupied, according to ABC7's John Gonzalez. The Bay City community is also closed Monday morning because of heavy damage. Maryland STate Police say there are also gas leaks in the Bay City area. ABC7's Eileen Whelan reports that a home was lifted off it's foundation in Stevensville while another house nearby had its roof ripped off and thrown to the other side of the yard. The man who lived in that second home suffered minor injuries, according to Whelan. http://wjla.com/news/local/possible-tornado-causes-severe-storm-damage-on-marylands-eastern-shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 This was a legit event - my preliminary guess would be an EF-2. What's not clear to me is whether the circulation tightened as it reached the bay or if the storm became surface-based as it encountered a possibly warmer or more moist low-level environment near the bay. I think that the storm was elevated prior to that, as I haven't heard of any damage reports along the track of the meso, which was fairly well-defined as it passed just south of Rt 50 in Anne Arundel County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 It should also be noted that the deep layer shear as well as the downdraft cape today are much better than they were during the weekend. The question is obviously how much coverage of storms there will be as the upper trough axis approaches. The best dynamics are north of here, so I don't think we'll have widespread storms, but any that form certainly have the potential to produce some wind damage.e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Still ~7,000 power outages on Kent Island...damage to the infrastructure there was pretty substantial...based off some of the picture I would agree with High Risk that's it's EF-2 damage...maybe there's some pocket of EF-3 in there because there have been reports of boats lifted out of their docks and deposited about a hundred yards inland...if that turns out to be true then it's a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Still ~7,000 power outages on Kent Island...damage to the infrastructure there was pretty substantial...based off some of the picture I would agree with High Risk that's it's EF-2 damage...maybe there's some pocket of EF-3 in there because there have been reports of boats lifted out of their docks and deposited about a hundred yards inland...if that turns out to be true then it's a big deal. That's impressive for most areas...let alone the Mid-Atlantic at 1:30ish in the morning. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Still ~7,000 power outages on Kent Island...damage to the infrastructure there was pretty substantial...based off some of the picture I would agree with High Risk that's it's EF-2 damage...maybe there's some pocket of EF-3 in there because there have been reports of boats lifted out of their docks and deposited about a hundred yards inland...if that turns out to be true then it's a big deal. So it wouldn't be a pedestrian tornado, amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: So it wouldn't be a pedestrian tornado, amirite? Cute trolling. Nope, this is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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