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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Ha!  I looked at the charts and it was more like 7 miles away. The cell was a weakling though. Other than the spinney thing it was nothing more than a summer shower with a medium breeze. 

Fishing was great though. We caught our limit of striped bass between 24-30" and caught and released at least 30 more in that size range. Good times. 

Good to know the stripers are doing well. Also glad that you're safe.

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Nice afternoon AFD from LWX

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Sultry night on tap with
increasing high clouds keeping temps up overnight. 24-hr model
trends in temperature indicate a 2-4 deg F rise from last night
meaning places like DC and Balt will not drop below 80F. In
fact, Downtown Balt may only drop to mid 80s tonight. For
tomorrow, models don`t indicate much change in MaxT so
temperatures will be as hot as they are today. Moisture might be
a little higher with 850 mb and sfc dewpoints progged much
higher than today. Heat advisories will likely be needed again
for most of the area similar to today. With regards to
convective potential tonight and Fri, hi-res convective allowing
models show weakening MCS tracking across PA into ern WV late
tonight after 06Z, so have low chance PoPs confined only to west
of the Blue Ridge mtns. Late Fri and Fri evening, GFS guidance
shows potential MCS activity crossing the Appalachians and parts
of the fcst area. Risk of t-storms looks definitely a little
higher than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...Potentially
active convective day during the afternoon and evening. Both GFS
and ECMWF show an MCS over the lower Great Lks moving sewd
across the fcst area Sat afternoon and evening. As always with
summertime convection, details especially with respect to timing
are very uncertain this far out. Continued hot and humid with
heat advisories still likely to be needed.

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Nice curvature in those hodos, although as progged, the very weak low-level and upper-level wind speeds would preclude the type of sustained supercell event that the big loops in the hodographs might suggest.     Still, we will probably have enough deep-layer shear later Saturday for some SVR threat, assuming storms make it into our area.

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Saturday and Sunday (and maybe Monday if it's slow enough?) have some severe potential, but there's a lot of caveats and uncertainties about each day. I'm obviously most interested in Saturday because it probably has the best chance to get something to spin, but all days do carry some level of damaging wind potential. Biggest ? for each day is the storm coverage, but other underlying issues exist as well that vary by day.

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16 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yoda: King of Copy and Paste with no explanation. 

Someone should create a map that translates soundings and Skew-Ts and hodographs into fun little tornado or snowflake or wind emojis that pop up on the map each time new data is fed into the models. The emojis get bigger the higher the chances of given weather, and get smaller if the chances are lower. Hell...maybe even animate the emojis. That'd be awesome.

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