nw baltimore wx Posted July 16, 2017 Share Posted July 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Ha! I looked at the charts and it was more like 7 miles away. The cell was a weakling though. Other than the spinney thing it was nothing more than a summer shower with a medium breeze. Fishing was great though. We caught our limit of striped bass between 24-30" and caught and released at least 30 more in that size range. Good times. Good to know the stripers are doing well. Also glad that you're safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 16, 2017 Share Posted July 16, 2017 From late week through next weekend what seems somewhat like a "ring of fire" type pattern may set up. It's unclear exactly where the train tracks, if any, may set up right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Day 3 slight risk. Let's see how this works out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 CIPS is hammering 96hr and 120hr timeframe pretty good on the 0z run. Not sure it means much as it has ramped up several times this year and resulted in nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Day 3 slight risk. Let's see how this works out... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 00z MON per 12z NAM at KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 2 hours ago, yoda said: 00z MON per 12z NAM at KDCA NAM pops a sfc low over northern VA which nicely backs the low-level winds. It's somewhat on its own with that feature for now, but it would make for an interesting afternoon/evening if it's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Nice afternoon AFD from LWX .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Sultry night on tap with increasing high clouds keeping temps up overnight. 24-hr model trends in temperature indicate a 2-4 deg F rise from last night meaning places like DC and Balt will not drop below 80F. In fact, Downtown Balt may only drop to mid 80s tonight. For tomorrow, models don`t indicate much change in MaxT so temperatures will be as hot as they are today. Moisture might be a little higher with 850 mb and sfc dewpoints progged much higher than today. Heat advisories will likely be needed again for most of the area similar to today. With regards to convective potential tonight and Fri, hi-res convective allowing models show weakening MCS tracking across PA into ern WV late tonight after 06Z, so have low chance PoPs confined only to west of the Blue Ridge mtns. Late Fri and Fri evening, GFS guidance shows potential MCS activity crossing the Appalachians and parts of the fcst area. Risk of t-storms looks definitely a little higher than today. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...Potentially active convective day during the afternoon and evening. Both GFS and ECMWF show an MCS over the lower Great Lks moving sewd across the fcst area Sat afternoon and evening. As always with summertime convection, details especially with respect to timing are very uncertain this far out. Continued hot and humid with heat advisories still likely to be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Jesus 18z NAM went bananas on the Skew-Ts for Saturday evening into the early overnight... this is KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 In tribute to Midlo... here's what i was doing reading the skew-ts for Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 And yes @Kmlwx I know its the NAM, but read what the AFD from LWX says about Saturday evening... soundings would seem to support POTENTIAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 I'm turning into an Eskimo Joe/Ian hybrid. Oh lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 00z picks up where 18z left off KHGR 21z SAT KMRB 21z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 KHGR at 00z KMRB at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 KIAD at 00z KBWI at 00z KBWI at 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 KDCA at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 Nice curvature in those hodos, although as progged, the very weak low-level and upper-level wind speeds would preclude the type of sustained supercell event that the big loops in the hodographs might suggest. Still, we will probably have enough deep-layer shear later Saturday for some SVR threat, assuming storms make it into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 Saturday and Sunday (and maybe Monday if it's slow enough?) have some severe potential, but there's a lot of caveats and uncertainties about each day. I'm obviously most interested in Saturday because it probably has the best chance to get something to spin, but all days do carry some level of damaging wind potential. Biggest ? for each day is the storm coverage, but other underlying issues exist as well that vary by day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 6z NAM in terms of parameters appears to have taken a big step back. At least we have two slights in a row... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: When is the last time we've had 2 slights back to back ? Too lazy to look. Though no guarantee any of these days perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: 6z NAM in terms of parameters appears to have taken a big step back. At least we have two slights in a row... 12z NAM at KHGR at 00z SUN 12z NAM at 00z SUN at KMRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 12z NAM at KIAD at 00z SUN 12z NAM at KIAD at 03z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 12z NAM at BWI at 03z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 12z NAM at KDCA at 03z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 1730 SPC OTLK now includes all of LWX CWA... 0800 only had northern part... decent disco even though they mention potential for a few isolated tors in PA and possible upgrade for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 21, 2017 Author Share Posted July 21, 2017 Yoda: King of Copy and Paste with no explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, mappy said: Yoda: King of Copy and Paste with no explanation. Someone should create a map that translates soundings and Skew-Ts and hodographs into fun little tornado or snowflake or wind emojis that pop up on the map each time new data is fed into the models. The emojis get bigger the higher the chances of given weather, and get smaller if the chances are lower. Hell...maybe even animate the emojis. That'd be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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