yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...much of Maryland...Delaware...southern Pennsylvania...and southwestern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141709Z - 141915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch that may be needed after 18Z or so. DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorm clusters (one over central Pennsylvania and another newly developing over northern West Virginia) were gradually increasing in intensity recently. This increase in coverage/intensity is likely tied to strong surface heating amidst a weakly capped airmass, with MUCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg in some areas. The region resides on the southern flank of enhanced mid-level flow (40-45 knots over Pennsylvania), which will likely support at least loosely organized and forward-propagating convection over the course of the afternoon, with a primary risk of damaging wind gusts near the strongest activity especially from northern Virginia eastward to the DelMarVa Peninsula later in the afternoon. Farther north into southern Pennsylvania/New Jersey, a nearly stationary frontal zone was located from near Harrisburg, PA east-southeastward to near Atlantic City, NJ. Along this zone, backed surface winds and low-to-mid 70s F dewpoints may contribute to updraft rotation, especially with any storms that can develop on the southern flank of ongoing activity in central Pennsylvania. The orientation of this boundary favors a relatively long residence time for updrafts that can root near the surface and move/propagate just to the right of the mean flow vector, and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out given this regime. Convective trends are being monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon especially if convective trends continue as currently observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 1600 SPC meso has N VA in 3000-3500 SBCAPE and 2000 MLCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 14, 2017 Author Share Posted July 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Thunder rolling here now but I could still easily miss this storm. missed me at work. radar lighting up, up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Trying to learn about enhanced stretching potential... seems like an intriguing read (since its 4 over N VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Severe thunderstorm watch out for most of the area . Radar really starting to blossom out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Severe Tstorm Watch up till 9pm for LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 215 PM EDT * At 134 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or 9 miles southeast of Shepherdstown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Braddock Heights, Clover Hill, Linganore-Bartonsville, Jefferson, Buckeystown, Rosemont, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville, Bloomfield, Clifton, Arnoldtown, Petersville and Middletown In Frederick Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Pretty low probabilities on that watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 That line just north of MD went up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: That line just north of MD went up quick. Big tops already too. Mid 40k range just like that. Maybe the atmosphere is primed better than I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Quarter sized hail reported in Camp Rim Rock... just west of Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 As expected SEPA area is jackpotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: As expected SEPA area is jackpotting. That's the winner so far...tops about to hit 55kft on that cluster, even some transient mid level sping. Damn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: As expected SEPA area is jackpotting. 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's the winner so far...tops about to hit 55kft on that cluster, even some transient mid level sping. Damn impressive. Cause thats where the WF is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 14, 2017 Author Share Posted July 14, 2017 given the flow of storms up north, seems the WF is draped over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Looks like the activity near Harper's Ferry pushed an outflow boundary down into Montgomery, western Howard and Loudoun. Hopefully that kicks of something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Nice bowing segment in N VA just warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Parents got smashed in South Jersey last night and are about to get hit again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Parents got smashed in South Jersey last night and are about to get hit again today.Best storm I've ever seen, hands down. And that includes the tornado I saw in 2012 in MD. SPC nailed that supercell down here. Ping pong ball sized hail for a while, and I think I had a small tornado, or at least a circulation pass over me. Winds went nuts and shifted directions a couple times.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 30 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Best storm I've ever seen, hands down. And that includes the tornado I saw in 2012 in MD. SPC nailed that supercell down here. Ping pong ball sized hail for a while, and I think I had a small tornado, or at least a circulation pass over me. Winds went nuts and shifted directions a couple times. Cool story. Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Cool story. Wrong thread. Lol SJ was mentioned, wasn't trying to be an ass.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 28 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Lol SJ was mentioned, wasn't trying to be an ass. I was, lol. Good to see ya. Decent rain from this lil' storm. And what sounded like some weak ducting at the end. B+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Just south of Fredericksburg in Spotsy County....wing gusted to 59 mph, two trees down and power is out. Bright green flash then power was gone. Crazy wind and the lightning is just everywhere and very close. Legit storm! Edit: there was no Severe Tstorm Warning as the line seemed to blossom overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 I was, lol. Good to see ya. Decent rain from this lil' storm. And what sounded like some weak ducting at the end. B+Lol you too man, wish we'd get an event like 2012 again so I can invade down there. That's a lot to ask though, lol.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 Heavy shower with no lightning popped out a waterspout on the east side of the Chesapeake... radar from TBWI looks like a small circulation got onshore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 A video of the Bay stuff: https://twitter.com/TomLynch_/status/886250292030976000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 Can't believe I missed the water spout. I was fishing on the bay about 2 miles due east of rock hall. The shower got us for about 15 minutes but I never saw the water spout. We were probably on 3 miles or so north of where it was. I got the tornado warning on my phone and laughed at it. It was a harmless shower with no CG. Not even breezy on the water. Maybe 15 knots tops for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can't believe I missed the water spout. I was fishing on the bay about 2 miles due east of rock hall. The shower got us for about 15 minutes but I never saw the water spout. We were probably on 3 miles or so north of where it was. I got the tornado warning on my phone and laughed at it. It was a harmless shower with no CG. Not even breezy on the water. Maybe 15 knots tops for a short time. Are you crazy?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Are you crazy?! Ha! I looked at the charts and it was more like 7 miles away. The cell was a weakling though. Other than the spinney thing it was nothing more than a summer shower with a medium breeze. Fishing was great though. We caught our limit of striped bass between 24-30" and caught and released at least 30 more in that size range. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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