Ellinwood Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Friday looks alright. Decent setup for isolated wind damage. Probably not that organized. Need as much sun as possible to bump up the MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Ellinwood said: Friday looks alright. Decent setup for isolated wind damage. Probably not that organized. Need as much sun as possible to bump up the MLCAPE. We do pulse storms pretty often around here. Good for a small area and then meh elsewhere. Pretty much what I'm expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Slight risk remains in place for tomorrow. LWX radar is back up but not calibrated yet. Still sticking with my thoughts from yesterday - no widespread severe. Just the usual stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 CIPS from the 0z run is pretty juicy for the 48 hour frame on the sector over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Slight risk remains in place for tomorrow. LWX radar is back up but not calibrated yet. Still sticking with my thoughts from yesterday - no widespread severe. Just the usual stuff. debris clouds from storms over PA will drift S providing clouds most of tomorrow morning capping things until 12:08pm. At that point we all make 50 'I see blue sky' posts and barely get 1500 CAPE. Storms fire up over Frederick, MD down to Winchester. As they move in EJ makes posts about seabreeze boundaries killing outflows. A cell sups over Columbia and Fredricksburg and I get sweet texts from a friend down that way while tumbleweeds blow across my front yard as the DC split happens. 4 severe warning boxes go up in total The usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 That sounds eerily close to what will probably happen. And somebody will post an awesome structure shot at some point too. More losers than winners...but when is that not the cast with severe and us. I hope our tropical peak brings something exciting. I'm over here twiddling my thumbs every day WRT weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: That sounds eerily close to what will probably happen. And somebody will post an awesome structure shot at some point too. More losers than winners...but when is that not the cast with severe and us. I hope our tropical peak brings something exciting. I'm over here twiddling my thumbs every day WRT weather. Over the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 06z 3km NAM ftw at hrs 13 and 14... pretty please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Hmmm -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1303.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: 06z 3km NAM ftw at hrs 13 and 14... pretty please? pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Per SPC meso, DCAPE is pretty nice looking at the RAP/SfcOA FCST... 1300-1400 around 4-5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 DCAPE forecasted to be around 1400 in N VA around 20z... suggests decent wind threat potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 HRRR is looking pretty weak. Last 3 or 4 runs have been pretty consistent showing just a couple popcorn cells around DC @ 19z but nothing else for the most part. With this type of day, meso models are just throwing darts until something actually starts to fire though so I don't think the weak stuff the hrrr is showing is all that useful. OTOH- it wouldn't surprise me if 90% of us don't even hear thunder or get the sidewalk wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 kinda nice seeing the risk for tomorrow be so perfectly centered over most of this sub even though we all know most of us will get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 I can't remember the last tstorm I've seen at my house. Probably early May? Maybe April? Maybe last year? Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 No love for NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: No love for NE MD You say that... Pity MD: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1305.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 minute ago, biodhokie said: You say that... Pity MD: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1305.html huh? Its not a pity MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Areas affected...northern and central VA...eastern half of MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131903Z - 132000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop and intensify this afternoon. Isolated 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible. A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered over the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity and storms have recently formed near the Shenandoah Valley. The airmass continues to destabilize with temperatures slowly rising into the lower-middle 90s degrees F with lower 70s dewpoints. The 16Z IAD raob modified for early-mid afternoon surface conditions yields around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE with a 0-3km lapse rate around 8.5 degrees C/km. The 16Z raob sampled relatively weak to moderate westerly flow (up to 35 kt at 650 mb). The KLWX VAD as of 1850Z has observed a strengthening in the mid-level flow field (30-45 kt in the 5-9 km layer). Given the moist boundary layer and stronger mid level flow on the southern periphery of a MCV traversing across PA, there appears to be greater potential for organized multicells than previously thought. At least a couple of stronger downdrafts yielding a risk for damaging winds are possible. Convective trends will be monitored for the possible need for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Smith/Darrow.. 07/13/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Yoda, 40% is not particularly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yoda, 40% is not particularly good. A pity MD is 5 or 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: A pity MD is 5 or 20% A pity MD is any MD that is on a pretty "meh" day IMO - and one that doesn't result in good severe weather. All it takes is a look at the radar - nothing too impressive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 2% tor added for parts of NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 HRRR was pretty accurate yesterday with a non-event through the cities. It's consistently showing a semi-organized line moving through around 5pm or so favoring DC and north. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 12z NAM 3km brings a nice complex through this afternoon. It even has decent UH presentation (nothing ground breaking but still decent). HRRR does a bit of a DC split with the strongest stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 With this much juice in the atmosphere you think we get some storms . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 WV looks nice on radar. Lots of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Thunder rolling here now but I could still easily miss this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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