yoda Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 912 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical air will envelop the area today. A cold front will cross the area late tonight into Saturday. High pressure will return Sunday and persist through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Besides a few showers across the region late this afternoon and early this evening...the LWX CWA has been quiet especially compared to our neighbors to the west and north. This will change tonight as remnants of TD Cindy and a cold front will move into the Mid- Atlantic region. Showers will spread across the region tonight with embedded heavy showers and gusty winds. The atmosphere is moist with an observed PWAT from KLWX of 1.9 at 00z. Sfc dewpts in the 70s will give to moderate instability across the region tonight. Shear is also moderate with near 50kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Thunderstorms are possible as the cold front crosses the region overnight. Hi-res guidance depicts some line segments that may produce stronger winds and severe thunderstorm warnings can not be ruled out overnight. Seems like the best chance will be across the northern half of the outlook area. Rainfall amounts of 0.75- 1 in are expected across the northern half and will taper off to around 0.25 in across the Central Foothills/southern MD overnight with higher amounts in heavier bands/thunderstorms. Elsewhere...a strong LLJ will be on top of the region tonight and widespread showers will likely bring down gusty winds. Gusts 35-45 mph can not be ruled out across the region into early Saturday morning. The cold front should cross the region by 8AM Saturday morning and drying will occur behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 So, we had wondered the about the possibility of a spinup or two Friday night in the strongly sheared environment with low LCLs. it obviously didn't work out here, but the same concept of a favorable environment did come together better in eastern NJ early Saturday. This video captures one of the short-lived EFOs (warning: language) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 Wow. Cool stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 I think we only got boxed once in June (19th). That's pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Most the area under a slight risk now hopefully can get something to fire along this front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 We can haz meso discussion: Mesoscale Discussion 1211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Pennslyvania...central/western Maryland...West Virginia Panhandle...and northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 011654Z - 011800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and perhaps large hail. Trends will be monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely prior to 19Z. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly intensifying across portions of southern New York and western/central Pennsylvania in the vicinity of a surface trough of low pressure as of 1645Z. Downstream, diurnal heating of a moist air mass with dew points in the lower 70s continues, and surface-based instability by early/mid afternoon should range between 1000-locally 2000 J/kg. Increasing large-scale ascent will develop over the area this afternoon as a mid-level impulse moves northeast from the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, contributing to a continued increase in thunderstorm coverage/intensity. Deep-layer southwesterly shear of 30-40 kts will promote multicell clusters/line segments with a threat for damaging winds this afternoon. Some potential exists for a supercell with mid-level rotation, especially with more discrete cells across the discussion area, resulting in the potential for isolated large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed prior to 19Z for much of the area. ..Bunting/Grams.. 07/01/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=hrrr&runtime=2017070115&fh=3&lat=38.94&lon=-77.21&stationID= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Man that's a nice cell just north of Hagerstown...tops pushing 50kft nice bit of CG and HGR just gusted to near 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 I can smell the D.C. split from miles away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Incoming looks decent for Bethesda silver spring etc. Maybe dc proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-610-011945- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0113.170701T1900Z-170701T1945Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 345 PM EDT * At 259 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Reston, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Rockville, Bethesda, Reston, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Vienna, Forestville, Falls Church, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, Pimmit Hills, Mclean, Byrd Stadium, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten, Rosslyn and Crystal City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don`t drive underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I can smell the D.C. split from miles away... i'm shocked Maybe I'll be wrong but the storm down by Manassas is blowing up and looks like I'm getting scraped... N D.C. might get hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 We aren't even in STS in my part of Gaithersburg and we are getting very heavy rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Deluge of rain with lots of wind here. I wouldn't be surprised if a wind gust or two verified the stw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 A drought-busting 0.03" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 We're in the box on the southerly edge, just getting a few drops at 4:20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Not worthy of the warning. 0.05 so far. Very little T&L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Downpour over just south of Old Town Alexandria. Planes taking off aplenty. Still horribly humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 From radar, that looked healthy coming through Baltimore but I missed it (of course) because down in DC to see The Big Sick and was in the theater when it came through the district. By the way, The Big Sick was outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 It missed my house But it must not have been severe. I didn't even hear any distant thunder. Would have loved some rain but that's not in the cards. Maybe something for us sw folks can fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Bairly wetted the ground here. That drought thread should be getting busy this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 That was a joke in downtown Baltimore. Rained hard for 15-20 and was fairly breezy but no thunder or lightning at all. This severe season has been comically bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 Pretty surprised to get home and see we received .96" Radar didn't look that impressive...I was visiting family just east of frederick and had a pretty good storm. Extended period of very heavy rain, gusty winds and plenty of T&L. Nothing that reached severe levels but the best storm I've witnessed this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 SPC mentions Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in the day 4-8 discussion from this morning. No risk areas outlined though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md1258.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 I wonder what was D.C.'s coldest derecho-like MCS on record to survive over the Apps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 On 7/7/2017 at 5:41 PM, BTRWx said: I wonder what was D.C.'s coldest derecho-like MCS on record to survive over the Apps... In order for an MCS or Derecho to survive the loss of daytime heating and downsloping, they typically need a stout Elevation Mixing Layer (EML) and about 4,000 j/kg of SBCAPE ahead of them. The 2012 and 2008 derechoes had just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: In order for an MCS or Derecho to survive the loss of daytime heating and downsloping, they typically need a stout Elevation Mixing Layer (EML) and about 4,000 j/kg of SBCAPE ahead of them. The 2012 and 2008 derechoes had just that. Was yesterday an anomaly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Finally a slight risk Dying of boredom over here with the weather. Heat doesn't do it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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