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2017 Severe Thread

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Sorry everyone else had such a meh event. I admit it probably wasn't as crazy as the wind/mini tornado storm we got earlier this year but it was more prolonged, which was nice. Better than most everything else this year.

We just can't buy a break with a good storm in the Baltimore area this spring.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

still some light/moderate showers moving through, but the heavy stuff is now east. 

picked up 1.12"

no real wind, but the t&l was pretty impressive and still some low rumbles now

I guess i was wrong on that. Heavy t-storms have redeveloped and its absolutely pouring here the last 30 mins.

up to 1.45" atm

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Severe definitely verified IMBY (for a change) - 1.81" and still raining. Lost power twice. Wave after wave of storms.

It hasn't rained here since May 31, so I definitely needed this.

Same here. after 8 inches in May, virtually nothing since. 

Up to 1.7" now. Looks like it will be 2"+ by the time its over.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Final total IMBY was 2.13". It definitely looked like the Eastern Shore was getting smacked on radar-  I wonder what all the rain totals were over there!

1.90" was the total here. Heaviest amounts were just to my SE over central DE- it looks like 2-3" there:

http://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

1.90" was the total here. Heaviest amounts were just to my SE over central DE- it looks like 2-3" there:

http://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

Congrats. Would like to have seen that up our way. If we were lucky we saw close to an inch. But in all likelihood it was probably closer to a half inch. Hard to tell without a rain gauge. Would get one but really don't have a decent spot on my property for one.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Congrats. Would like to have seen that up our way. If we were lucky we saw close to an inch. But in all likelihood it was probably closer to a half inch. Hard to tell without a rain gauge. Would get one but really don't have a decent spot on my property for one.

I had to move mine around. Ultimately sunk a post and mounted the station on that. Everywhere is problematic though due to all the trees. Where I have it located now it gets sun soaked in the mid afternoon so the recorded high temps are too high. I also bought NWS 8" rain gauge and mounted that on the deck to compare with the weather station. Found out the station rain gauge is always a tad lower, but generally very close.

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Curious if anybody has any thoughts on hvy rain/severe later in the week?  Im a rookie when it comes to severe... 

I'm still watching what will happen with the remnants of Cindy and how it interacts with a cold front dropping in from the northwest. The best severe threat will come Friday afternoon but this depends on how much sunshine we can get Friday. 0-6km effective bulk shear actually looks fairly decent that day (Possibly 45-50+kt). The CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is what will determine whether Friday could be a day with off and on showers and downpours or a day with some severe storms (perhaps a few supercells). The later, though, would require decent sunshine during the day. Right now the NAM model is most aggressive with this with 2,000+J/kg mean-layer CAPE. Other major models show more modest mean-layer CAPE. (Generally 500-1000+ J/kg).

As for the heavy rain threat form Cindy, it depends on the exact track of the storm and how it interacts with the cold front and the mountains. As of now it certainly looks like most of us are guaranteed at least some rain from the system. What's uncertain is whether the storm largely rains itself out over the mountains like some models show or whether the low stays a bit stronger/more organized as other models show allowing more heavy rain east of the mountains. Not to forget, where any potential "squeeze play" sets up with southerly winds ahead of the low pushing into the cold front forcing extra lift along that front. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Afternoon AFD from LWX 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

For the most part, ridging will hold for the day Thursday.
However, warm advection/isentropic lift will be knocking on the
door of the western ridges by afternoon. Add in terrain
circulations, and have chance PoPs for the mid-late afternoon
hours. Believe we will be a degree or two warmer for high
temperatures, which places highs around 90 degrees.

There are two windows of opportunity for heavy rain: Thursday
night into early Friday and again Friday night. The former will
be on the nose of the theta-e ridge. Precipitable waters will
rise to in excess of 2 inches inside the ridge axis.

Then, assuming even some clearing, there will be the opportunity
for some significant instability to develop. While this is
conditional, GFS MUCAPE progs indicate 1500-2500 j/kg possible.
This will be in a sector with a 30-35 kt 925-700 mb jetlet and
500 mb flow reaching 55 kt, so more than ample shear will be
present as well. We will keep to see how details pan out, but
severe weather threats will need to be monitored over the next
day or two.

The second window of heavy rain/storms would be associated with
the cold front that drops toward the forecast area Friday night.
Given the possibility for saturated soils and prolific warm rain
processes, this would be the period that flood concerns most
likely will need to be assessed in the cycles to come.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yoda, look at the sounding just a few hours later. This has to be contaminated or something. This is early Saturday morning near DC, right before that second batch of convection rolls though. Friday could be good, but I'm not sure how much storm coverage we'll see. Just look at that wind profile and SRH lol :o 

2017062200_NAMNST_056_38.89,-77.14_sever

wtf lol... i just checked that out... DP's will probably be in the 70s due to the GOM moisture and remnants of Cindy... so I can see the 74 DP.  the SRH is... um... well, wow

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yoda, look at the sounding just a few hours later. This has to be contaminated or something. This is early Saturday morning near DC, right before that second batch of convection rolls though. Friday could be good, but I'm not sure how much storm coverage we'll see. Just look at that wind profile and SRH lol :o 

 

   The NAM nest definitely ramps up a threat Friday night.    Instability is limited, but the low-level shear is pretty fantastic.   There is an 80 kt LLJ just south of DC.    There is probably little margin for error with the placement of the Cindy remnants, so the next run could take away with the 00z cycle giveth, but it warrants watching.     As others have noted, the parameters are good Friday afternoon, but there probably isn't a trigger. 

 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

   The NAM nest definitely ramps up a threat Friday night.    Instability is limited, but the low-level shear is pretty fantastic.   There is an 80 kt LLJ just south of DC.    There is probably little margin for error with the placement of the Cindy remnants, so the next run could take away with the 00z cycle giveth, but it warrants watching.     As others have noted, the parameters are good Friday afternoon, but there probably isn't a trigger. 

 

:yikes: That sounds disturbing if it came true

I'm guessing the CF isnt close enough Friday afternoon?

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