ErinInTheSky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 That clearing is looking quite promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 1630 outlook Derp, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Last run of the HRRR really isn't that optimistic for clearing, we'll see what the next one says. Keeps reforming some junk right over D.C. really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Mappy, do you have the link to create the state specific maps like the one above. Never seem to find where I can do that.....thanks in advance. Thin clouds here in Spotsylvania....64/61 yup http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/ One for each state, only the main SPC outlooks, no individual maps for wind, hail or tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, mappy said: yup http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/ One for each state, only the main SPC outlooks, no individual maps for wind, hail or tornadoes. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: You're the best. I know. seriously, though, love those maps. Wish they would have wind/hail/tornadoes available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Any chance this thread can be pinned for at least today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 no one look at the latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: no one look at the latest HRRR It's that much of a wet blanket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: no one look at the latest HRRR *goes to look at the latest HRRR* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: It's that much of a wet blanket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That much of a wet blanket? It's really lame. Keeps the theme of reforming cloud cover over the area. The line barely makes it to D.C., reforms stronger after it passes through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: no one look at the latest HRRR I don't know, discrete cells firing in a 2-3 STP environment (1000 CAPE+shear). They don't merge until after 95, but so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It's really lame. Keeps the theme of reforming cloud cover over the area. The line barely makes it to D.C., reforms stronger after it passes through the area. Yea, just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 So, a mid-afternoon squall line is getting close to being locked in, but I'm still curious if there will be a part 2 this evening. In theory, the main show will trash the environment with little chance to recover, and that's what is shown by the latest HRRR and NAM ops and para nests. But the front won't come through until late evening, and mid-level cooling and a strong jet core will overspread the area just in advance. The overnight NAM nest runs (including the fire wx nest) and the ESRL HRRR parallel show a round 2, although it seems like the southern part of DC metro might have the best shot, if there really is a second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Scuddz said: *goes to look at the latest HRRR* *headdesk* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: I don't know, discrete cells firing in a 2-3 STP environment (1000 CAPE+shear). They don't merge until after 95, but so be it. So tornadic sups instead of a line... we buy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: I don't know, discrete cells firing in a 2-3 STP environment (1000 CAPE+shear). They don't merge until after 95, but so be it. Oh I know. Doesn't look awful, just you know... after it passes most people here. Shrug. Just now, high risk said: So, a mid-afternoon squall line is getting close to being locked in, but I'm still curious if there will be a part 2 this evening. In theory, the main show will trash the environment with little chance to recover, and that's what is shown by the latest HRRR and NAM ops and para nests. But the front won't come through until late evening, and mid-level cooling and a strong jet core will overspread the area just in advance. The overnight NAM nest runs (including the fire wx nest) and the ESRL HRRR parallel show a round 2, although it seems like the southern part of DC metro might have the best shot, if there really is a second round. I feel like second rounds never work out well here. But we shall see. Also, saw someone on twitter mention today as a derecho. sigh. Just now, Scuddz said: *headdesk* I warned you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Wonder if LWX is doing a special 18z balloon release. I'd imagine they would given the ENH risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I don't know, discrete cells firing in a 2-3 STP environment (1000 CAPE+shear). They don't merge until after 95, but so be it. The northern Maryland cell might have a chance, but the one near D.C. might not have enough space to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The northern Maryland cell might have a chance, but the one near D.C. might not have enough space to get going. If you look at the UH swaths (I know), the most impressive one is just south of the Beltway. Not dissimilar from the track from the other day, frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: If you look at the UH swaths (I know), the most impressive one is just south of the Beltway. Not dissimilar from the track from the other day, frankly. Not sure I'd call any of these impressive, but I know what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if LWX is doing a special 18z balloon release. I'd imagine they would given the ENH risk. Blacksburk is doing a 16z release. Nothing from lwx yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure I'd call any of these impressive, but I know what you're saying. Check out the one that runs along the NC/VA border after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Didn't see it posted (well not the image) so posting it for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Check out the one that runs along the NC/VA border after 21z. Now we just need a couple hundred mile north shift! It can happen still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Don't look now, but that line in West Virginia has two TORs on it and decent clearing ahead of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Going to be an interesting morning update from LWX IMO... they should be hitting the risk for damaging winds hard in their AFD... but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Don't look now, but that line in West Virginia has two TORs on it and decent clearing ahead of the line. Make that three. None look very impressive at the moment though, rotation wise. Winds certainly look menacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 12z NAM sounding for DCA at 18z has 1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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