Ellinwood Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 6am SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 At least it is somewhat less cloudy than we are accustomed to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 I just want some prolonged lightning and thunder. I never realized how profoundly I missed severe weather in Louisiana until moving here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Ellinwood said: 6am SBCAPE Cloud concerns are minimal now and SBcape will only increase. Bombs away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 If there's ever a setup that's going to produce it's this. Any clouds that we have are going to be gone in the new couple of hours just in time for peak heating. Flood threat really look 'meh' now, but the severe setup is nice. This is going to be a fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I just want some prolonged lightning and thunder. I never realized how profoundly I missed severe weather in Louisiana until moving here. Same for me, coming from Ohio growing up and Memphis for 11 years before moving to this area in 2009. It is unreal, the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Same for me, coming from Ohio growing up and Memphis for 11 years before moving to this area in 2009. It is unreal, the difference. I think today is a day to be excited for. I'm starting to cheer more for these linear systems because at least you know they won't miss you. Now I'm just hoping they don't BLOW THROUGH at like 50 miles an hour and instead take their time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Don't make me upgrade. Don't. This is about as good as it gets in the Mid Atlantic in June but this isn't your Step 4 setup. That would be an Isabel or 2012 Derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 27 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I just want some prolonged lightning and thunder. I never realized how profoundly I missed severe weather in Louisiana until moving here. The other thing that I miss is the variety in time of day that storms happen out west. Seems like everything here is 1pm-11pm. I always liked the MCSs crashing through at 3am or the ominous morning sky for a mid-morning storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 If we manage to keep some really solid clearing it wouldn't surprise me to see some hatching for wind appear from Baltimore north to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The other thing that I miss is the variety in time of day that storms happen out west. Seems like everything here is 1pm-11pm. I always liked the MCSs crashing through at 3am or the ominous morning sky for a mid-morning storm. Or just the popcorn daytime heating storms I got in Baton Rouge, the kind that just formed right over you and lived their entire lifespan right over you. Nice prolonged thunder and downpouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we manage to keep some really solid clearing it wouldn't surprise me to see some hatching for wind appear from Baltimore north to NYC. Any chance we get hatching here? I remember seeing yesterday models had some semi-discrete cells in our area, although it all seems linear today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Any chance we get hatching here? I remember seeing yesterday models had some semi-discrete cells in our area, although it all seems linear today. I think the core of the winds are just too far north. We probably get more scattered, but intense activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 The latest HRRR looks kind of weak around these parts. Still decently optimistic at the odds for some nice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The latest HRRR looks kind of weak around these parts. Still decently optimistic at the odds for some nice storms. Plot Twist: It's Ellinwoosh's birthday today so we have that going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Plot Twist: It's Ellinwoosh's birthday today so we have that going for it. The lack of big squall lines this year so far has me still a bit hesitant on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The lack of big squall lines this year so far has me still a bit hesitant on today. Yea, the newest HRRR is pretty concerning. Hopefully this is one of the times where's it completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Looks like the ENH is now expanded west back to I-81. Slight expanded east a bit overall. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170619_1300.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 oh gosh. the HRRR obsession begins. Elinwood says we are good, so just let it be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 NAM 3km kind of does a Central MD split - DC does well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Probably don't want to look at the 3k NAM. Virtually nothing just north of DC through the DC/Balt corridor and literally blows up just east of 95. Would be a heart-breaker for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: NAM 3km kind of does a Central MD split - DC does well though. Ninja'd me. Would be a case of the haves getting more and the have nots being left out once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Probably don't want to look at the 3k NAM. Virtually nothing just north of DC through the DC/Balt corridor and literally blows up just east of 95. Would be a heart-breaker for many. Need to shift that formation about 50 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 NAM 3k and HRRR are real gut punches...not good trends. NAM kinda hinted at this yesterday and so did CIPS with Philly and Richmond getting a solid hit while we stay high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Hmmm... updated morning HWO from LWX... note the addition of the "isolated tornadoes" part... the early morning HWO did not have that mentioned Quote .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A flash flood watch is in effect from 3 PM until 9 PM for the entire Baltimore and Washington metro areas. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing intense rainfall in a short period of time. There is also an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. The main threat is isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes and locally large hail are also possible. The most likely time frame for severe weather is between 3 PM and 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: The latest HRRR looks kind of weak around these parts. Still decently optimistic at the odds for some nice storms. 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, the newest HRRR is pretty concerning. Hopefully this is one of the times where's it completely wrong. 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NAM 3k and HRRR are real gut punches...not good trends. NAM kinda hinted at this yesterday and so did CIPS with Philly and Richmond getting a solid hit while we stay high and dry. The hrrr and nam blew their loads on Friday and Saturday. I just finished watering so it's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 For posterity, latest AFD from LWX (10:45 am): Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10am, a cold front has crossed the Ohio River into WV. Showers stretch from central WV northwest to NY state. Lightning activity has waned over WV, so the weather forecast was updated to have just isolated thunder through noon. This cold front will cross the area this afternoon (evening for southern MD). A plume of precipitable water up to 2 inches is ahead of this cold front with values increasing through the afternoon. The progression of this front will increase through the day as an upper trough approaches from the west. The LWX CWA will be in the right entrance region of a jet streak to the north, enhancing upper level difulence and maximizing rain rates. Limiting factors to flash flooding are dry antecedent conditions of the past two weeks and relative fast progression/movement of frontal zone and fcst individual storm cell motion of around 35 kt. On the other hand, unidirectional wind profiles indicate potential for training convection while exceptionally high PWATS, very high 850 ThetaE values and K indices will support intense rainfall rates capable of producing 2-4 inches of rain in a short period of time. A flash flood watch remains where models and their respective ensemble means show the highest rainfall totals along with the lowest flash flood guidance (mainly urban areas). The strengthening shear/wind fields and fast storm motion also indicate potential for damaging winds and SPC has parts of the area under an enhanced risk of severe wx. Will also note the 2 percent tornado and 5 percent hail threat as well. The cold front will clear the area during the mid to late evening hours with showers ending by midnight in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 New meso for out Baltimore folks and points north...95% chance of a blue box: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1090.html "At least a couple of WWs appear likely within the next hour or two" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: New meso for out Baltimore folks and points north...95% chance of a blue box: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1090.html "At least a couple of WWs appear likely within the next hour or two" We will get ours soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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