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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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If there's ever a setup that's going to produce it's this.  Any clouds that we have are going to be gone in the new couple of hours just in time for peak heating.  Flood threat really look 'meh' now, but the severe setup is nice.  This is going to be a fun day.

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14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I just want some prolonged lightning and thunder. I never realized how profoundly I missed severe weather in Louisiana until moving here.

Same for me, coming from Ohio growing up and Memphis for 11 years before moving to this area in 2009. It is unreal, the difference.

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Same for me, coming from Ohio growing up and Memphis for 11 years before moving to this area in 2009. It is unreal, the difference.

I think today is a day to be excited for. I'm starting to cheer more for these linear systems because at least you know they won't miss you. Now I'm just hoping they don't BLOW THROUGH at like 50 miles an hour and instead take their time.

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27 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I just want some prolonged lightning and thunder. I never realized how profoundly I missed severe weather in Louisiana until moving here.

The other thing that I miss is the variety in time of day that storms happen out west.  Seems like everything here is 1pm-11pm.  I always liked the MCSs crashing through at 3am or the ominous morning sky for a mid-morning storm.

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12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The other thing that I miss is the variety in time of day that storms happen out west.  Seems like everything here is 1pm-11pm.  I always liked the MCSs crashing through at 3am or the ominous morning sky for a mid-morning storm.

Or just the popcorn daytime heating storms I got in Baton Rouge, the kind that just formed right over you and lived their entire lifespan right over you. Nice prolonged thunder and downpouring rain.

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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we manage to keep some really solid clearing it wouldn't surprise me to see some hatching for wind appear from Baltimore north to NYC.

Any chance we get hatching here?

 

I remember seeing yesterday models had some semi-discrete cells in our area, although it all seems linear today.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Any chance we get hatching here?

 

I remember seeing yesterday models had some semi-discrete cells in our area, although it all seems linear today.

I think the core of the winds are just too far north.  We probably get more scattered, but intense activity.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Probably don't want to look at the 3k NAM. Virtually nothing just north of DC through the DC/Balt corridor and literally blows up just east of 95. Would be a heart-breaker for many.

Need to shift that formation about 50 miles west.

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Hmmm... updated morning HWO from LWX... note the addition of the "isolated tornadoes" part... the early morning HWO did not have that mentioned

Quote

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect from 3 PM until 9 PM for the
entire Baltimore and Washington metro areas. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing intense rainfall in a short period of
time.

There is also an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening. The main threat is isolated to
scattered damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes and locally
large hail are also possible. The most likely time frame for
severe weather is between 3 PM and 8 PM.
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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

The latest HRRR looks kind of weak around these parts. Still decently optimistic at the odds for some nice storms. 

 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, the newest HRRR is pretty concerning. Hopefully this is one of the times where's it completely wrong.

 

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

NAM 3k and HRRR are real gut punches...not good trends.  NAM kinda hinted at this yesterday and so did CIPS with Philly and Richmond getting a solid hit while we stay high and dry.  

The hrrr and nam blew their loads on Friday and Saturday. I just finished watering so it's going to happen. 

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For posterity, latest AFD from LWX (10:45 am):

 

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10am, a cold front has crossed the Ohio River into WV.
Showers stretch from central WV northwest to NY state. Lightning
activity has waned over WV, so the weather forecast was updated
to have just isolated thunder through noon. 

This cold front will cross the area this afternoon (evening for
southern MD). A plume of precipitable water up to 2 inches is
ahead of this cold front with values increasing through the
afternoon. The progression of this front will increase through
the day as an upper trough approaches from the west. The LWX CWA
will be in the right entrance region of a jet streak to the
north, enhancing upper level difulence and maximizing rain
rates. 

Limiting factors to flash flooding are dry antecedent 
conditions of the past two weeks and relative fast 
progression/movement of frontal zone and fcst individual storm 
cell motion of around 35 kt. On the other hand, unidirectional 
wind profiles indicate potential for training convection while 
exceptionally high PWATS, very high 850 ThetaE values and K 
indices will support intense rainfall rates capable of producing
2-4 inches of rain in a short period of time. A flash flood 
watch remains where models and their respective ensemble means 
show the highest rainfall totals along with the lowest flash
flood guidance (mainly urban areas). 

The strengthening shear/wind fields and fast storm motion also 
indicate potential for damaging winds and SPC has parts of the 
area under an enhanced risk of severe wx. Will also note the
2 percent tornado and 5 percent hail threat as well. The cold 
front will clear the area during the mid to late evening hours 
with showers ending by midnight in most areas.

 

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