George BM Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: In all seriousness though the flood setup for Monday is decent. Good front punching into a moisture rich environment that has decent jet dynamics. Probably going to be a marginal TOR or wet microburst setup. We sometimes see a tornado watch and flash flood watch at the same time during these events. Just don't look at the 12z NAM and you'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 3 hours ago, George BM said: Just don't look at the 12z NAM and you'll be fine. Let me guess...nada. How classic would it be to see another setup go "poof" as we near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 12z guidance sucked IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Y'all must be high or something. This setup has barely changed in like the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 I've spent several years lurking in fear of getting beat up on a weather forum, but the one thing I have noticed is that some of you will downplay everything, even sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Ellinwood said: Y'all must be high or something. This setup has barely changed in like the past 2 days. Thank you good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 hour ago, iFred said: I've spent several years lurking in fear of getting beat up on a weather forum, but the one thing I have noticed is that some of you will downplay everything, even sunshine. Don't feel that way... please feel free to post what you think and believe. Yes, certain posters do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Don't feel that way... please feel free to post what you think and believe. Yes, certain posters do that. You are telling me that we have Debbie Downers that grace this board? Nah, tell me it aint so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 LWX seems gung-ho for Monday afternoon in this afternoon's AFD: Quote The cold front will slowly pass through the area Monday into Monday night. Shear profiles will continue to strengthen as the upper-level trough associated with the cold front digs over the Ohio Valley and Midwest. A south to southwest flow ahead of the cold front will continue to usher in very warm and humid conditions. The unstable atmosphere...along with forcing from the cold front will lead to showers and thunderstorms. Strong shear profiles suggest that there is an enhanced threat for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the primary threats due to unidirectional winds with height. Copious amounts of moisture will also cause thunderstorms to contain heavy rainfall. A shear vector nearly parallel to the cold front suggests that training convection is possible. This elevates the threat for flash flooding despite the faster storm motion expected. The best chance for severe storms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and evening hours east of the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 18z 3k Nam looks pretty tasty... the sounding and simulated IR satellite are even more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 ok can some one explain to me how to read that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 32 minutes ago, motsco said: ok can some one explain to me how to read that http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_HowTo.html Excellent read from MU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Timing still looking like afternoon tomorrow for best chance of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Looks like the guidance has been slowly nudging the best activity northward into PA and South towards Richmond. It seems as though there's 2 little vorts to watch, one over Missouri and another over Chicago. Will be interesting to see where they ultimately end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 CIPS really likes the Balt to Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: CIPS really likes the Balt to Philly area. For the first time this year I am actually getting somewhat excited about the potential for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: For the first time this year I am actually getting somewhat excited about the potential for tomorrow. The shear profiles are very nice but instability is my biggest concern. There is likely going to be a considerable amount of clouds during the day tomorrow from the line of storms coming into the region overnight. NAM SBCAPE isn't too good in resposne . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: The shear profiles are very nice but instability is my biggest concern. There is likely going to be a considerable amount of clouds during the day tomorrow from the line of storms coming into the region overnight. NAM SBCAPE isn't too good in resposne . After taking a quick glance over the 12Z runs I will say my enthusiasm has been stomped on somewhat. Though we do see some action through the DC/Balt corridor it looks as if the models, for the most part, feel that the serious action really doesn't start popping until south and east of 95. Which would go hand in hand with your clouds comment. Oh well. At this point just hearing a peal of thunder would be a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: After taking a quick glance over the 12Z runs I will say my enthusiasm has been stomped on somewhat. Though we do see some action through the DC/Balt corridor it looks as if the models, for the most part, feel that the serious action really doesn't start popping until south and east of 95. Which would go hand in hand with your clouds comment. Oh well. At this point just hearing a peal of thunder would be a win in my book. Typical wait and see day tomorrow with cloud cover. I'm starting to think heavy rain may be the biggest concern of the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 seems pretty clear-cut that timing is the key tomorrow. NAM nest and HRRRX delay most or all of the activity and sweep a nice line through the area with an environment favorable for damaging winds. The hi-res windows break out storms much earlier, and the result is much less coverage along the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Shear is weak... but I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few severe storms tonight... soundings from the 18z NAM would seem to support this... see the 03z and 06z DCA soundings... SBCAPE and MLCAPE are around 1500 J/KG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Haaaaaaahahaha y'all crack me up. Timing hasn't changed. Instability hasn't changed. Dynamics haven't changed. SPC's Enhanced is probably good for tomorrow. Sit back and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Haaaaaaahahaha y'all crack me up. Timing hasn't changed. Instability hasn't changed. Dynamics haven't changed. SPC's Enhanced is probably good for tomorrow. Sit back and enjoy I need a filter all but Ellinwood function on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Haaaaaaahahaha y'all crack me up. Timing hasn't changed. Instability hasn't changed. Dynamics haven't changed. SPC's Enhanced is probably good for tomorrow. Sit back and enjoy Do you feel better seeing this @Kmlwx? @WxWatcher007's severe threat level must be high with Ellinwood fully on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @Kmlwx we need to know if you're IN I can neither confirm nor deny that I am writing up a draft disco for tomorrow. Confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Ellinwood said: Haaaaaaahahaha y'all crack me up. Timing hasn't changed. Instability hasn't changed. Dynamics haven't changed. SPC's Enhanced is probably good for tomorrow. Sit back and enjoy Your point is well-taken, but while I agree that the timing of the front has been very steady, some guidance has been breaking out storms well out ahead of the primary forcing, and a few of the solutions have emphasized those as the primary storms, and they're somewhat scattered. Even the solutions that bring a huge line through have a couple of cells out ahead; they just don't screw up the main show. That said, I'm in for tomorrow. I think I favor the idea of a severe squall line impacting much of the area; even if the early initiation with scattered cells solution is right (and I'm leaning against this scenario), there would still be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Ellinwood said: Haaaaaaahahaha y'all crack me up. Timing hasn't changed. Instability hasn't changed. Dynamics haven't changed. SPC's Enhanced is probably good for tomorrow. Sit back and enjoy Agree on the timing and dynamics. Instability is in question due to preceding cloud cover. With late day timing and solid UL dynamics, instability concerns could be overcome. Will be an obs kind of day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 I'm in for a couple severe storms and a handful of warnings. Nothing eye opening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 I mean, you can't really ask for much more than the 3k Nam if straight line storms are your thing... look at the sbcape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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