yoda Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 3 hours ago, high risk said: was definitely in a good spot today. Got the heart of the core here in southern Howard County. I didn't get the 1" hail that BWI reported, but winds easily gusted in the 45-50 mph range and it was a deluge. looking ahead, Monday's wind profile suggests a somewhat common westerly flow at all levels with increasing speeds with height profile which can do well here if you don't wipe out the low-level moisture. meh... it doesn't look too good to me as a severe day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 now I have hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Meh Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET are mostly in agreement on Sunday with an upper-level ridge in the High Plains and an upper-level trough in the Great Lakes. Although the models differ on the exact location of a front on Sunday, the general consensus shows a front from the Great Lakes west-southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. This corridor would be favored for a severe threat Sunday afternoon and evening. On Monday, the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET show an upper-level low in the lower Great Lakes with an upper-level trough extending southwestward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface on Monday, the models show varying positions of the front latitudinally but consensus would place the front from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat would be most likely ahead of the upper-level trough along the front in the Mid-Atlantic where deep-layer shear is forecast to be stronger. Spatial uncertainty is substantial for Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 I guess 03z MON looks interesting... 400-500 SBCAPE but 1300+ MLCAPE... SWEAT index ~455 and sup potential 81%... decent SRH of 200 m2/s2 This is 03z MON at KIAD and KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Are we getting close yet to calling this year's severe season a fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 15 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Are we getting close yet to calling this year's severe season a fail? This stretch of weather has been extremely mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: This has been a good season IMO, even if we suck the rest of the way. Really? It has been absolute trash up this way. Just nothing remotely interesting and barely any thunder really, since February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Literally, there's barely been storms here in Balt city area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: This has been a good season IMO, even if we suck the rest of the way. I think the potential this year has been encouraging. That said it has been a poor turnout in my neck of the woods so far other than the freak Feb. storm which featured the heaviest hail I have ever seen with 50 mph. wind gusts, and a green sky to boot! Anyhow, I would not be happy at all if it sucked the rest of the way. I am awaiting the mid summer boomers that crop up unannounced from time to time. Those are the storms that often excite me the most even if they tend to be more discreet and less inclusive region wide. They often have the best lightning too, plus can pop up in the middle of the day or night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: This has been a good season IMO, even if we suck the rest of the way. For Southern MD/DC and south it has been a somewhat respectable season in my mind but north of there it has been a fail in my book especially around the MD/PA state line. Can't remember the last time we had so little action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 6 hours ago, Kmlwx said: This stretch of weather has been extremely mundane. If by extremely mundane you mean boring as He!!, then I agree. Maybe tropical will make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Watcher - the most frustrating thing, I think, for those of us from Balt City up to the MD/PA line, say, has been that there has been really good severe weather in lots of PA, and the severe weather you mentioned that has been present from DC south, but in between? It has been really hard to get good severe in here this year. Or even garden variety storms this year for that matter. One storm with some thunder since mid-February for my area, that's it. Growing up in the Midwest (Ohio) and then living in Memphis for 11 years before moving here in 2009, I was certainly used to legit thunderstorms (or even just plain ol' storms) on the regular. It has been absolutely barren this year, as bad a stretch as I have seen since moving here, in terms of storms, for my part of the area anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Great analysis by IEM about D1 MOD Risk Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Marginal risk on Wednesday anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 On 6/11/2017 at 0:33 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Well, it could be good here and bad up your way because severe can be so localized. The way I see it, we've had multiple supercell days in the region, at least two tornado days, and a confirmed tornado in DC proper. That's hard to beat in the short time span I've been living in this area. Haven't been any real big light shows yet, or big wind days from what I can remember. I definitely agree with the post above, but I do live between Waldorf and LaPlata. We experienced the best supercell and tornado of the season(so far) in February. Several minutes of sustained roaring wind and rising motion leading into the supercell was a visual and audio treat. The event was not so cool as it was happening, since F1 the tornado was totally rainwrapped inside of a severe windfield. Several other supercells down here and near work in Alexandria as well. Those north of here and especially north of DC have had a much different experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Monday looks a'ight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 42 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Monday looks a'ight. Go on....you and HM are both interested it so my ears are perking up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Ellinwood said: Monday looks a'ight. Oh? Please share details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 I see you Kmlwx You know you are intrigued when Ellinwood says there might be something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 It looks okay for the time being. Plenty of time for it to meltdown, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: It looks okay for the time being. Plenty of time for it to meltdown, though. That's a great stance. 99% of the time we fail at the last minute. Trends this year have been awful too as the date nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Quick aside and for giggles and fun... and since I was bored... check out this sounding from N IL on the 12z NAM at hr 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: Quick aside and for giggles and fun... and since I was bored... check out this sounding from N IL on the 12z NAM at hr 63 Perhaps I was only a little early on my June 13th severe prediction? But seriously if a sounding like that could be over the DMV area and be only a couple hours out we'd be golden...and by that I mean specifically us wxweenies not everyone else lol. Okay getting a wee bit bantery...I'll tone it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Looks like we have a day 4 risk, and day 3 slight is not far from us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 D4 15% or D2 MOD is the automatic kiss of death. Timing looks worse than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Lulz - there are some PDS TORNADO psbl haz types on the 18z NAM for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Day 3 (Monday) SPC Outlook ...western Carolinas northward into New England... Clusters of showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the OH Valley southwest into portions of the lower MS Valley. Despite relatively weak mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture (surface dewpoints ranging from the 60s-lower 70s degrees F from north to south) combined with strong heating to the east of the early-day convection, will contribute to moderate destabilization. Models show neutral to weak 500-mb height falls and 30-40 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow overspreading the western portion of the warm sector during afternoon. Developing bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast with isolated to scattered 50-65 mph gusts expected to result in several corridors of scattered wind damage from the more intense thunderstorms. Marginally severe hail will be possible, especially with more discrete cellular activity. The storm clusters will likely move towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and through the lower Hudson Valley during the evening. The loss of heating and the cooler/more stable marine influence near the immediate coast in southern New England may temper the overall severe risk, as storms move into the region from the west primarily after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 That's not a super exciting discussion considering they issued a day 3 ENH for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: That's not a super exciting discussion considering they issued a day 3 ENH for us. D3 ENH is the new D2 MOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 In all seriousness though the flood setup for Monday is decent. Good front punching into a moisture rich environment that has decent jet dynamics. Probably going to be a marginal TOR or wet microburst setup. We sometimes see a tornado watch and flash flood watch at the same time during these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.