wawarriors4 Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: EZF cell warned for hail to golf ball size Just North of EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 The supercell that hit Stafford and Fredericksburg had beautiful structure coming toward southern MD....it did pass along the instability axis just southwest of here along the river. This has been quite the severe wx season in the southern DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nice little pity cell popping over DC now. Got 0.02" from that bad boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Hail. .3" of rain. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Got 0.02" from that bad boy. Choo-choo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Hail core with cell in N Loudoun County as E to W line of storms developing in N VA as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Got 0.02" from that bad boy. More rain/storms coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Was there a boundary laid down from earlier? Cause the storms are redeveloping along the E-W line in N VA along I-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2017 Author Share Posted May 31, 2017 Nada here. Congrats to those who saw something. I assume those who got sun, got decent activity today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 18z NAM NEST likes N VA tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Surprised the cell in Southern Fauquier county isn't warned... radarscope suggests 1.25 inch hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 00z NAM really likes tomorrow afternoon into evening... would not be surprised to see a SLGT risk for us... SHIP really being hit hard in the soundings (2-3) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_sigh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Sim reflectivity on the HRRR and NAM nest looks pretty poor for today. HRRR fires some stuff but it looks weak and fires overhead and heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Maybe? Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The ECMWF and GFS models are in reasonable agreement on Saturday with an upper-level ridge in the Rockies and a shortwave trough in the northern Plains. Both models show a corridor of low-level moisture and instability across the upper Mississippi Valley where a severe threat could develop Saturday afternoon and evening. The shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday as the two models move a cold front southward into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms that form along the front could have a severe threat Sunday afternoon and evening. Strong thunderstorms will also be possible eastward into the Mid-Atlantic where the ECMWF develops a pocket of moderate instability Sunday afternoon. Spatial and magnitude uncertainty is substantial on Saturday and Sunday. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the ECMWF and GFS solutions continue to deepen the upper-level trough and move the trough into the southern Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. The two models also move a cold front southward into the Tennessee Valley and eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat would be possible along parts of the front that sufficiently destabilize Monday afternoon and evening. These solutions drive the front southward across the Gulf Coast states and into the Gulf of Mexico from Tuesday into Wednesday. The eastern part of the front is forecast to be located across either the Florida Peninsula or the southeastern states on Tuesday and Wednesday where a marginal severe threat would be possible each afternoon. Again, spatial and magnitude uncertainty is substantial from Monday to Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 05/31/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Wouldn't be surprised to see some decent hail with any storm that is able to get going this afternoon... hail parameters are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 15z HRRR picking up on a small cluster that crosses through DCA around 21z 16z HRRR shows same at 21z-22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Hail parameters are increasing right along the I-95 corridor... 1.75-2.00 hail per SARS hail size and sig hail parameter is 2 around EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Pity Meso south of DCA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0927.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr very insistent on clusters hitting DC on south only. Which is fine actually with me ..backyard needs to dry out. 17z HRRR at 21z and 22z really pounding on that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: You can already see radar starting to light up some ...due west of DC and with a due east component to movement. Radar also starting to pop now just along i66 West of Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 We've really made tremendous progress in short range numerical modeling over the past decade. If this were 2005, we'd be jumping for joy if the GFS or NAM showed some little blob...not we get hourly updates from multiple hi-res convective models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boviscopophobic Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Pea-sized hail from the cell that just passed over Reston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Ground zero report. Not much wind. Decent CG. No hail. Torrential rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 The good storm goes north and the trash moves east, typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The good storm goes north and the trash moves east, typical. Sick hobby when we are sitting on 8" of rain for the month and are annoyed that the storm whiffs us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Sick hobby when we are sitting on 8" of rain for the month and are annoyed that the storm whiffs us. I don't care about rain, just want some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 was definitely in a good spot today. Got the heart of the core here in southern Howard County. I didn't get the 1" hail that BWI reported, but winds easily gusted in the 45-50 mph range and it was a deluge. looking ahead, Monday's wind profile suggests a somewhat common westerly flow at all levels with increasing speeds with height profile which can do well here if you don't wipe out the low-level moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, high risk said: was definitely in a good spot today. Got the heart of the core here in southern Howard County. I didn't get the 1" hail that BWI reported, but winds easily gusted in the 45-50 mph range and it was a deluge. looking ahead, Monday's wind profile suggests a somewhat common westerly flow at all levels with increasing speeds with height profile which can do well here if you don't wipe out the low-level moisture. I must have just missed it because it was really pedestrian here. A few rumbles of thunder, 10 minutes of moderate rain, and a slight wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I must have just missed it because it was really pedestrian here. A few rumbles of thunder, 10 minutes of moderate rain, and a slight wind gust. Yeah, it did seem like the core passed just southeast of Columbia. Really impressive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Tornado confirmed from Clarke County yesterday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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