H2O Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Skies brightened a little here and there but just don't see much happening with this thick cloud deck. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 1630z OTLK issued... still 2/15/15... SLGT risk remains for all of us... SLGT risk also nudged a bit east in the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Good luck SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 The cloud deck is making very little progress in terms of burning off. SPC seems to side with the HRRR today - it's hard to ignore the repeated indication on that model for a couple decent storms...but with the cloud cover it definitely makes me question to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2017 Author Share Posted May 30, 2017 You need to be where the sun is shining if you want storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0919 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017 Areas affected...Parts of western and central PA...southwest into central NY...and southward to the eastern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301603Z - 301830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development is expected across western PA into southwest NY and southward some into WV by early afternoon (around 17Z), with one or more lines of storms and perhaps clusters spreading east today. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe-weather threats. DISCUSSION...Trends in satellite imagery indicated ongoing cumulus formation this morning from the Upper Ohio Valley into WV, toward central PA and west/southwest NY, as surface heating and low-level moistening has weakened inhibition. Late morning radar imagery showed some thunderstorm development within convection along and parallel to the higher terrain from the eastern WV Panhandle through central PA to south-central NY. This activity was located within an area of low-level confluence, and the eastern extent of stronger instability analyzed over the western PA/Upper Ohio Valley region. Strengthening west-southwesterly 500-mb winds with the approach of a MI/IN/OH shortwave trough will support increasing effective bulk shear for organized storms. In addition, an increase in forcing for ascent with this trough across the discussion area this afternoon into the evening will augment ascent along an eastward-moving front and aforementioned confluence zone to support more robust convection/thunderstorm development. The degree of instability and bulk shear suggest damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe threats. Long, straight hodographs suggest splitting storms will be possible, while low-level curvature could prove sufficient for a tornado threat too. ..Peters/Hart.. 05/30/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 16z HRRR has a line from DC to EZF... 15z was decent as well but hit DCA head on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 I assume the HRRR is showing a snow squall line up this way.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2017 Author Share Posted May 30, 2017 that line will die a slow death as it hits the wall of marine air. dont get your hopes up people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Very slight brightening of the sky here in Rockville/Potomac. Still very, very cloudy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 SPC mesoanalysis RAP/SfcOA forecasts seem favorable for this evening... take that as you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2017 Author Share Posted May 30, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Typical MA severe day. those cells in PA are pretty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2017 Author Share Posted May 30, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I'm passively watching. I'm digging out of hundreds of emails now that #chasecation2017 is over. ha, I can imagine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Wedge is winning! As was mentioned that it would! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 HRRR still trying to develop a discrete cell in N VA around 22z and moves it just south of DCA at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Buck up everybody, we may get 5 minutes of sunshine before a shower misses us a few miles to the north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 1730z SPC OTLK has us in MRGL risk for tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2017 Author Share Posted May 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Buck up everybody, we may get 5 minutes of sunshine before a shower misses us a few miles to the north or south. ha, was just gonna post, the clouds are gonna make a fool out of me. looks like you NOVA, DC people could get some sun, quick line, then all done. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Sky is breaking open here, a bit late for any significant heating, but the instability axis and thermal boundary will be close by in Charles County once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 *sometimes* storms that look 'meh' on radar can fire up fast for about 30 - 60 minutes as they interact with the differential heating of the marine layer and the warm sector. That might be what the HRRR is trying to key in on. Still think it's overdoing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 That one certainly blew up right over my house. Very heavy rain, dime sized hail, almost no thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 4 hours ago, mappy said: that line will die a slow death as it hits the wall of marine air. dont get your hopes up people. Yep I just jinxed it. Covered my patio furniture. Never fails leave it uncovered and it pours, cover it and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Experts - 1 Weenies - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Woo TOR south of Charles Town. Bit of a differential heating boundary and enhanced lift from the terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 I don't like to second guess LWX, but that big severe warning box that stretched way into Loudoun Co didn't make much sense. Sure enough, that cell dies down and the warning goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Hail core reappearing on Loudoun County cell as thunder rumbles here Cell also looking more organized as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0923.html Mesoscale Discussion 0923 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 Areas affected...Northern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302156Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across northern Virginia into the early evening hours. Large hail will be the primary threat, though locally damaging winds are possible. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep low-level lapse rates west of the wedge front across VA. As a result, surface-based thunderstorms have developed along the eastern fringe of this more buoyant air mass and are slowly maturing within a corridor of favorable low-level convergence. High-res model guidance has been consistent regarding this development and supercells are evolving within a strongly sheared and favorably unstable environment. Latest radar data strongly suggests at least golf ball sized hail with the supercell over Culpeper/Stafford Counties. There is increasing concern that this activity will linger into the evening hours as they propagate southeast along the wedge front. Hail and wind can be expected with this activity. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 05/30/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Decent hail core on the STW cell near EZF Another storm firing in NW Fauquier County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Southern MD for the win again.....UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 EZF cell warned for hail to golf ball size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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