Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 At this point, i'm just rooting for flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: At this point, i'm just rooting for flash flooding. And even that is not portrayed on the models. Just scattered storms. At least I saw a nice storm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 From the morning HWO from LWX: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening. The potential exists for some of these storms to produce severe weather and flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 The warm front will move into the Mid-Atlantic region by Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the warm sector mainly south of a line stretched from the Potomac Highlands to southern MD. 0-6 km bulk shear will increase to 40-50 kts across the warm sector. Dewpts will rise into the mid to upper 60s and 1-2 J/Kg of CAPE are expected. This will allow some thunderstorms to become strong to severe. There is a slight chance/15% of severe weather Saturday afternoon in the locations mentioned above. All threats, large hail, dmg winds and isolated tornadoes are possible. People planning to be outside Saturday should remain aware of changing weather conditions. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 Not terribly impressive IMBY yesterday. I was driving down the Fairfax County Parkway at around 7:30 when the skies opened up, but that's really about it. Some thunder and anafrontal rain. No wind, hail, etc. It's just damn wet out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 I'm rapidly losing interest in Saturday. The setup seemed promising with a NW-SE boundary in place across the area, but every hi-res run I've seen this morning (NAM nest, Hi-Res Windows, HRRRX) brings a dying MCS through here during the morning or midday hours, and it kills our instability and refocuses the late afternoon activity well south of here. Would need a big change in guidance this evening to restore hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 Sunday looks bad too now. Warm front gets stuck in the mountains and everyone is stuck with a stable, semi-overcast marine layer. Starting to think this will be the norm for the summer. Overcast with a day or two of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I pray that's not the case. Whole weekend is looking like more of a damp, dreary and overcast with some rain kinda deal. My garden is just about lost at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 00z GFS at 21z SAT came back... not great, but decent enough for severe at DCA and south 0600 SPC OTLK has SLGT risk in SW LWX CWA... DCA in marginal risk. 2/5/5 for DCA amd 2/15/15 for SW LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Why does the HWO for much of the area say this -- isn't HWY 33 like down near Richmond? Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible mainly along and south of U.S. Highway 33 in Virginia and east of Interstate 81 in the central Shenandoah valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: Why does the HWO for much of the area say this -- isn't HWY 33 like down near Richmond? Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible mainly along and south of U.S. Highway 33 in Virginia and east of Interstate 81 in the central Shenandoah valley. US 33 cuts through Harrisonburg SE over Skyline Drive through Greene County and in to SW Orange County before dipping in to Louisa County, which is out of their CWA. Y'all can't forget about us "southerners". As far as the threat, HRRR is locked in for a storm to develop right over me (Charlottesville) before racing down 64 towards Richmond. We're right on the edge of some clouds right now, which will create a nice differential heating boundary over next couple hours. Temps look to be in upper 70s/lower 80s here, but mid 80s SE of us. Those that do make it in to mid 80s range stand best shot at storms as I expect them to develop along BR and Race ESE with significant wind and some sizeable hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Had a very good severe weather day, today. But I am not northern Va, wish you all would remember that central Va is part of your area of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 22 hours ago, ATreglown said: Had a very good severe weather day, today. But I am not northern Va, wish you all would remember that central Va is part of your area of discussion. What kind if severe weather did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boviscopophobic Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 21 hours ago, yoda said: What kind if severe weather did you get? The Richmond area got a couple of discrete mini-sups that dropped at least 2-3" hail. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#AKQ/201705271900/201705280359/0100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 1 hour ago, boviscopophobic said: The Richmond area got a couple of discrete mini-sups that dropped at least 2-3" hail. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#AKQ/201705271900/201705280359/0100 Wow.... egg sized hail for 10 minutes? Woah... I see a report of tennis ball sized hail as well in Amelia County as well I see a 3" report as well... i wonder how many times 3" hail has occurred in VA before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 It's actually not impossible that someone (more likely with northward extent due to forcing being stronger north) may end up with a somewhat decent storm later today given the 1,000+ MLCAPE w/ 40-50kt effective shear expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boviscopophobic Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 3 hours ago, yoda said: Wow.... egg sized hail for 10 minutes? Woah... I see a report of tennis ball sized hail as well in Amelia County as well I see a 3" report as well... i wonder how many times 3" hail has occurred in VA before It wasn't a bad-looking storm either, isolated with classic structure although a bit on the wimpy side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Charles County/Fredericksburg, Culpeper and northwards are now Slight Risk..2/15/15 as per the 1300 SPC update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Hmmm... what say you @Kmlwx of the 1300z SPC disco below? ...Northeastern States to NC... Scattered thunderstorms should form along and ahead of the front from late morning through afternoon, in a generally north-south corridor of low-level convergence. Broken bands and clusters of convection, with a few embedded supercells and small bowing segments possible, should evolve from northwestern NY across PA, moving eastward across the theta-e axis as far as parts of eastern NY and/or VT before the severe threat diminishes. Coverage should become more widely scattered to isolated south of the Mason-Dixon line, but with discrete convection potentially evolving into supercells. Damaging gusts and large hail each can be expected, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Generally cold air aloft, augmented on the north end of the outlook area by subtle ascent preceding the ejecting IL perturbation, will spread over the area as the boundary layer heats/destabilizes, and CINH diminishes. Heating will be slower and more erratic over NY given the presence of morning clouds/precip from a precursory perturbation that will eject away from the area later this morning. Surface dew points generally 50s F in the north to mid 60s around MD and northern VA will support MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg over portions of PA and NY, transitioning to 1000-1500 J/kg from southern PA across northern VA and the Potomac River region. Effective shear will decrease with southward extent from western NY, corresponding roughly to weakening mid/upper flow, however both that and low-level hodographs should favor supercell potential as far south as northern/central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Yoda, It'll be another situation of feast or famine. I'm sure somebody will get dumped on by some hail and damaging winds - but with isolated nature there will be a lot of misses as well. I'm 1/4 in and 3/4 out for MBY. It'll take some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Y'all don't make this easy. Will we ever have a Step 3/4 day? I didn't say I was in yet Just testing the waters with the intriguing 1300z disco mentioning discrete sups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Showers surprisingly firing within this pea soup marine layer. Pretty cool watching the westward advance late yesterday from the Chesapeake toward the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 12z HRRR looks like it has two sups in the area around 23z-00z... one in C MD and one in N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 SPC is set up to fail today. You can see on GOES 16 that we have incredibly thick NE flow as the high clouds clear Virginia. Not sure how we can expect any surface heating. As Ian says, 'when in doubt, forecast wedge'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC is set up to fail today. You can see on GOES 16 that we have incredibly thick NE flow as the high clouds clear Virginia. Not sure how we can expect any surface heating. As Ian says, 'when in doubt, forecast wedge'. This is spot-on. If heating were to occur, it could be an interesting late day/evening, but that seems unlikely unless you go west (and maybe a fair distance west??) of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 Nearest clearing is west of Loudoun/Fauquier - meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 HRRR still insistent on bringing decent activity through the area. Location varies from run to run, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: HRRR still insistent on bringing decent activity through the area. Location varies from run to run, however. 13z was pretty decent IMO... brought a nice small line from Montgomery down to PW through around 00z 14z looks sameish... though the main cell is in Montgomery County at 00z but there are two other "discrete" cells in N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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