CAPE Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 SPC- Any supercell/tornado risk would appear to be semi-focused mainly across the Delmarva vicinity toward southeast PA/southern NJ in vicinity of a surface low and warm front. I have never even sniffed seeing a funnel, but I have gotten some good cloud shots of storms rolling in. A couple really cool shelfs, one over the bay that I posted here a couple years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Sun appearing as the clouds are mixing out here in N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Nice breaks in the clouds coming shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 12z NAM NEST sim radar wants to crush DC at 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM NEST wants to crush DC at 22z Yea saw that. Hmm, sub 100mb low trying to jet through the region can be fun. It's been our saving grace for isolated severe so many times. Just as I type this I see blue sky in Gaithersburg. Still not terribly excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea saw that. Hmm, sub 100mb low trying to jet through the region can be fun. It's been our saving grace for isolated severe so many times. Just as I type this I see blue sky in Gaithersburg. Still not terribly excited. Also - Sunday looks super lame. So getting something today would be a bit of a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: Also - Sunday looks super lame. So getting something today would be a bit of a consolation prize. I have a boat load of work that needs to be done outside. Need at least one day outside this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Also - Sunday looks super lame. So getting something today would be a bit of a consolation prize. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-261000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 1207 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail...locally damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. Heavy downpours in thunderstorms will pose a threat for localized flash flooding of small streams and creeks as well. Special marine warnings may also be required over the waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening. The potential exists for some of these storms to produce severe weather and flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Damn 75 - 80 degrees on the eastern shore under full sun. They're primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 it has been hinted at in the LWX AFD, but the "problem" is that the deep layer shear starts going rapidly downhill after 21z. Perhaps there is a window between 20-22z (especially east of town) during which favorable shear/instability will overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0839.html Kinda meh to kinda okay MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Looks like we have initiation near Charlottsville. If we can pump some sun on this maybe we can get some storms at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 16z HRRR still likes a line of storms to come through DC around 21z/22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 More blue skies and increasing sun outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 The 12z Euro crushes DC Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z Euro crushes DC Saturday night. Define ''crushes'' heavy rain over 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Define ''crushes'' heavy rain over 4"? 2-3", could be more, looks like a good convective complex pushes out of the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: 2-3", could be more, looks like a good convective complex pushes out of the Ohio Valley. Meh, it'll trend drier. Been that was all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 The regular EJ is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Nice 500 mb disturbance rolling through our backyards on the EURO Saturday afternoon leads to a precip bulls-eye over you guys. Dunno about severe, but temperatures near 80 could help get things going. PS: FWIW, the RPM is swinging a healthy line of storms through WV in to VA Saturday afternoon. I've been more concerned about Saturday than Sunday, tbh, as any storms Saturday will hinder Sunday's threat, imo. Areas south of the storms Saturday will be the ones to see storms Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxReese said: Nice 500 mb disturbance rolling through our backyards on the EURO Saturday afternoon leads to a precip bulls-eye over you guys. Dunno about severe, but temperatures near 80 could help get things going. PS: FWIW, the RPM is swinging a healthy line of storms through WV in to VA Saturday afternoon. I've been more concerned about Saturday than Sunday, tbh, as any storms Saturday will hinder Sunday's threat, imo. Areas south of the storms Saturday will be the ones to see storms Sunday. Nothing to see here per EJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Nothing to see here per EJ. To be fair, the NAM Nest and NAM do have the storms getting going near I-64 (or near me) and staying south of DC/BWI. So.... EJ wouldn't like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 That 12z Panasonic looks awfully familiar Hr 60 hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Completely blue skies here now... go storms go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Nothing to see here per EJ. And if you posted here more often, you would know that EJ is our resident End of the World or bust guy. But..... alas, you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Completely blue skies here now... go storms go! 90% clouded over in downtown DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: 90% clouded over in downtown DC. Its patchy blue skies...mostly due to the sun cooking off all the moisture in the soil. Was hoping surface temp would've responded by now but alas it's another DC fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 34 minutes ago, mattie g said: 90% clouded over in downtown DC. Blue skies just broke out. We should be good for an hour of sun before the storms make their way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
93Blizzard Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Sun is out in Baltimore near Towson. Just hoping for a decent storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Popped to 75. Looks like most of the cells have lightning associated with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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