Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 It's infrared obviously - not visible yet but I think we need to hope that works it's way in. Lots of clouds to the N and E of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Nice expansion of the ENH. I'm not banking on anything other than a nice thunderstorm but that's all I need for a taste from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Great write up @MillvilleWx thank you for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 ENH over the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, mappy said: Great write up @MillvilleWx thank you for that! No problem! I'm done my overnight stretch so I have a nice stretch of days off. I'll be staying up for the potential. I'm certainly intrigued with the look. I like any type of interesting weather and we haven't much of any this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Whoa... 45% wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 main risk per SPC is wind in latest outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 As mentioned above -- SPC moves the Enhanced risk to cover most of the area. From SPC ...KY-TN eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states... Radar imagery early this morning shows an extensive squall line from the upper OH Valley southwestward into portions of west-central KY and middle TN. The southern portion of the squall line has had a several-hour history of widespread measured severe gusts as it tracked from eastern AR into western KY/TN. A MCV associated with this part of the line is forecast to move downstream within a belt of 80-90 kt 500-mb flow. It seems likely the greatest concentration of severe gusts and swaths of wind damage will align from near the I-65 corridor in TN/KY to the spine of the Appalachians by late this morning (16z)---resulting in higher wind probabilities and a moderate risk. It appears increasingly likely destabilization will not be inhibited by prior storm activity from the southern half of WV east-northeastward into the D.C and DelMarVa areas. CAM guidance, in particular the 01/00z NSSL WRF, appears to have a relatively good depiction of the evolving convective lines through 12z this morning. Storm-scale guidance moves a squall line into the I-95 corridor during the early afternoon (roughly 18-21z) coincident with appreciable diurnal destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates and becoming more favorable for momentum transfer. In addition to the risk for widespread damaging winds, the stronger/longer-lived mesovortices embedded within the line may yield a weak tornado risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Wind outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Pretty interesting to see the 60% wind show up and no hatching involved. Widespread but not 60kts+ I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 If hatching is added or if the probabilities are bumped one more category it'd be a moderate for us Can we get Eskimo Joe's famed Day 1 Moderate upgrade? We're close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: If hatching is added or if the probabilities are bumped one more category it'd be a moderate for us Can we get Eskimo Joe's famed Day 1 Moderate upgrade? We're close! What do you mean by hatching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: What do you mean by hatching? Hatching on the SPC outlook map (sig severe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: What do you mean by hatching? Everything you need to know about the risk areas and hatching. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html The short of it is that hatched areas are really the target zone for either hail, tornadoes or wind. You'll see the area defined with this black outlined area and little dashed inside (see image below). ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 This would be acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Clearing looks good to our SW. Good low level jet should help push that out of here. I'm bigly excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Clearing looks good to our SW. Good low level jet should help push that out of here. I'm bigly excited. I thought yesterday you were all meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I thought yesterday you were all meh I was 'mehing' out yesterday, but this morning has me reinvigorated. Only thing that could ruin us would be timing, but it's really nice to see this activity persist overnight and stay energized through Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Clearing looks good to our SW. Good low level jet should help push that out of here. I'm bigly excited. What's the ETA on clearing around the DMV? The sooner the better! I want sun to bake us good for a few hours. Might as well go big today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I was 'mehing' out yesterday, but this morning has me reinvigorated. Only thing that could ruin us would be timing, but it's really nice to see this activity persist overnight and stay energized through Kentucky. just giving you a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: What's the ETA on clearing around the DMV? The sooner the better! I want sun to bake us good for a few hours. Might as well go big today. I'm thinking 10am to noon. It's encouraging to see breaks all the way up in to the panhandle of WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Yes was just going to mention on visible you can see some breaks underneath some thinner clouds in the Panhandle of WV - most of the southern half of WV is looking to be clearing nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 If we clear out enough, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a MOD risk for wind with the 1730z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Sig shading on the 60% will turn this into a high risk day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Are we doing cloud obs here or in the obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentTalkie Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just west of Charlottesville, sun started breaking out around 7:45 this morning. Mostly thin cirrus left overhead and mostly blue sky to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Day 1 MOD Risk: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170301_1300.html Clearing starting to pop up even into Garrett County, MD. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 51 minutes ago, mappy said: As mentioned above -- SPC moves the Enhanced risk to cover most of the area. From SPC ...KY-TN eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states... Radar imagery early this morning shows an extensive squall line from the upper OH Valley southwestward into portions of west-central KY and middle TN. The southern portion of the squall line has had a several-hour history of widespread measured severe gusts as it tracked from eastern AR into western KY/TN. A MCV associated with this part of the line is forecast to move downstream within a belt of 80-90 kt 500-mb flow. It seems likely the greatest concentration of severe gusts and swaths of wind damage will align from near the I-65 corridor in TN/KY to the spine of the Appalachians by late this morning (16z)---resulting in higher wind probabilities and a moderate risk. It appears increasingly likely destabilization will not be inhibited by prior storm activity from the southern half of WV east-northeastward into the D.C and DelMarVa areas. CAM guidance, in particular the 01/00z NSSL WRF, appears to have a relatively good depiction of the evolving convective lines through 12z this morning. Storm-scale guidance moves a squall line into the I-95 corridor during the early afternoon (roughly 18-21z) coincident with appreciable diurnal destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates and becoming more favorable for momentum transfer. In addition to the risk for widespread damaging winds, the stronger/longer-lived mesovortices embedded within the line may yield a weak tornado risk. Mappy, do you have the link to create the state specific maps like the one above. Never seem to find where I can do that.....thanks in advance. Thin clouds here in Spotsylvania....64/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This would be acceptable Would be perfect for me. Clearing is approaching rapidly from the sw. At least partial clearing isn't very far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we clear out enough, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a MOD risk for wind with the 1730z update. 1630 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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