Eskimo Joe Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Saturday screams MCS debris that kills everything off. But man if we get sun are we gonna be primed. Gonna 'meh' this until I see the visible satellite on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Saturday screams MCS debris that kills everything off. But man if we get sun are we gonna be primed. Gonna 'meh' this until I see the visible satellite on Saturday. You mean Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, yoda said: You mean Sunday? Yea, Sunday my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Saturday screams MCS debris that kills everything off. But man if we get sun are we gonna be primed. Gonna 'meh' this until I see the visible satellite on Sunday. I'm with you so far. This year everything has been seemingly isolated but intense supercells but otherwise kind of lame as a whole region perspective. Would be nice to get something widespread. though supercells are fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 On the 12z GFS the focus is well south. Best stuff looks like it would be closer to the VA/NC border. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1730z SPC OTLK has I-95 corridor in MRGL risk for tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I'm with you so far. This year everything has been seemingly isolated but intense supercells but otherwise kind of lame as a whole region perspective. Would be nice to get something widespread. though supercells are fun... This season continues to be one bust after another. There's been a few isolated cells and structure shots, but overall the weather has been insanely boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This season continues to be one bust after another. There's been a few isolated cells and structure shots, but overall the weather has been insanely boring. Absolutely agree. I missed some hail IMBY when I was out of town... We need some regionwide event to get me excited again. Doesn't even have to be June 2012...just something trackable that is not some isolated sups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 If only we had a bit more shear tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 18z GFS sup composite is okay.... 4700 MUCAPE up to EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Tonight's tornado near Dayton, OH gives me a bit more concern for tomorrow's threat. That tornado got going in a "meh" environment: ~500 CAPE, Bulk Shear less than 100, Helicity around 150, and LCLs between 500-750m. That low is going to be close enough to spring something on us tomorrow. So, again, don't sleep on tomorrow's threat. It may not have the "WOW" or "OMG" numbers, but it's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 00z NAM NEST sim radar is interesting from 18z to 01z tomorrow... looks like some sups maybe moving about the LWX region? You can watch the storms fire as the ULL moves in to WV 03z HRRR also picking up on some storms at the very end of its run (sups?) developing around 20z as the ULL begins to rotate in... 02z HRRR at hr 18 had same idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 See hr 17 and 18 of the 03z HRRR below... you can clearly see the development and movement of the storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 0600 day 1 OTLK has most of the LWX CWA in marginal risk... 2/5/5... mentions NAM guidance in discussion wrt boundary layer warming for surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 The GFS is really scaling back on any threat for Sunday. In fact, the parameters seem better by a hair on MONDAY now. What a hobby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 hrrr looks fun later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 I do wonder how severe any of these will get. Models are consistent with almost no supercell composite parameter. Getting some nice thunderstorms in general would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Check out what happened in Dayton, OH late yesterday on what can happen even when parameters are not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: hrrr looks fun later That would probably yield a flash flood threat. Several of the low lying areas and small streams are near bank full in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Right at rush hour too. That would be a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 SPC gives us a sneaky 2% TOR threat. Flash flood and spinny bendy tree wedges usually go hand in hand here. We also do sneaky severe really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 I'll still go with general thunder with heavy rain. But having Eskimo Joe sort of on board is always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 1300z pretty much same... though did mention tor threat a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 From the 9am HWO: .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail...locally damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado...especially across northern Maryland...northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 12z HRRR focusing on two rounds... one at 21z and another around 01z for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z HRRR focusing on two rounds... one at 21z and another around 01z for DC Same with 13z HRRR... 21z to 22z... though the 00z-01z looks better with a nice line 12z NAM likes 22z-23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Conditional TOR threat, but this is pathetic. Too much low level moisture is gunking us up with low clouds and drizzle. Another wasted day. Hope I'm wrong and we get a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 LWX seems bullish Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1036 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and associated cold front will move through the area late today. Weak high pressure will return to the area Friday night and Saturday. A warm front will stall over the region Saturday night. A stronger cold front will cross the region late Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/.. Vertically stacked low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley today. An occluded front associated with the low will move into our area...and surface low pressure will develop along that boundary overhead. Latest guidance shows a theta e ridge along and ahead of the occluded boundary. Modified KLWX sounding shows close to 1000 J/KG of MLCAPE this afternoon along and ahead of the occluded boundary. The upper-level low to our west will be building overhead later this afternoon into this evening. Popup showers and thunderstorms are expected over the area. Shear profiles will be weakening during peak heating this afternoon...but they should still be strong enough to elevate the threat for severe thunderstorms mainly for locations near and to the north of the occluded boundary. Those areas appear to extend from eastern West Virginia across northern Virginia toward the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas. Locally damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. Low clouds still have to dissipate by early this afternoon for the severe threat to be elevated. Current thinking is that the marine layer is shallow enough this morning for the clouds to mix out...but will have to monitor satellite trends closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Yeah I'm not in on anything other than garden variety storms for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Full sun here now. 12z HRRR and 3k NAM have forecast cape values around 1500 here, close to 2000 just east of here in central DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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