George BM Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Maybruary 24th, 2017 severe weather outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, George BM said: Maybruary 24th, 2017 severe weather outlook. What is this supposed to show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: What is this supposed to show? I was just trying to make a joke about how it is somewhat weird that in late May the SPC has an at least level 2(slight risk) of severe well into Florida... something you'd expect more in late February. I admit it was not the best joke about... you know what nevermind I'll show myself the way out. *walks into dreamville* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 GFS dialed things up for Sunday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 55 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: GFS dialed things up for Sunday PM. Good for plain severe or better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: Good for plain severe or better? "Plain severe" - Oh yoda 4+ days out I won't say a thing until we are closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: "Plain severe" - Oh yoda 4+ days out I won't say a thing until we are closer. lol I was out so I could only see by phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Ah, now I see 21z SUN sup composite Jesus... that sounding... woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Here we go again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, George BM said: Here we go again... Kenny started it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Hey - all I said is the GFS dialed things up. Tomorrow morning it'll be back to like 250 CAPE and 0.01 supercell composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Lol I know. No worries guys. We just need to get a very good run and then to have people stop traveling by air or by vehicle or.... you know what how about we all just stop moving until that run verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak ridge of high pressure sfc and aloft will build over the area Fri night into Sat. Despite this, model guidance show moisture overspreading the area from the west and even generate light QPF west of the Blue Ridge. A low pressure system near Chicago Sun morning will travel northeast into Lk Huron by Mon morning pushing a cdfnt through the area Sun night. Modest height falls and sfc pressure falls will lead to convective development Sun afternoon with severe t-storms possible especially east of the Blue Ridge and south of I-66 & U.S. Hwy 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 lol 00z GFS had 6000+ SBCAPE just south of DCA at 21z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, yoda said: lol 00z GFS had 6000+ SBCAPE just south of DCA at 21z SUN Nobody move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, yoda said: lol 00z GFS had 6000+ SBCAPE just south of DCA at 21z SUN Yeah but MLCAPE looks MUCH, much lower as is expected. Keep your expectations in check for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah but MLCAPE looks MUCH, much lower as is expected. Keep your expectations in check for Sunday. I know, was just mentioning how high it was. We rarely have SBCAPE above 5000 around here even in best case scenarios... supercell comp was around 20 Who is doing the outlook issuances with WxWatcher out of town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, yoda said: I know, was just mentioning how high it was. We rarely have SBCAPE above 5000 around here even in best case scenarios... supercell comp was around 20 Who is doing the outlook issuances with WxWatcher out of town? Supercell composite parameter uses CAPE as one of it's variables I believe. So ridiculous CAPE will lead to those numbers. Also, remember to check dews - sometimes we see those vastly overmodeled leading to ridiculous CAPE being printed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah but MLCAPE looks MUCH, much lower as is expected. Keep your expectations in check for Sunday. 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Supercell composite parameter uses CAPE as one of it's variables I believe. So ridiculous CAPE will lead to those numbers. Also, remember to check dews - sometimes we see those vastly overmodeled leading to ridiculous CAPE being printed out. I assume that that has to do with rain contaminated air from nearby convection leading to models showing crazy high dewpoints but only at the surface. Hence, why you can get extremely high SBCAPE values and MUCH, much lower MLCAPE values. This is just my hypothesis by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Yoda, A sounding from that area of 6K CAPE is showing a Td of 79. That's not going to happen. So you can immediately take the CAPE way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Supercell composite parameter uses CAPE as one of it's variables I believe. So ridiculous CAPE will lead to those numbers. Also, remember to check dews - sometimes we see those vastly overmodeled leading to ridiculous CAPE being printed out. 18z GFS had the highest sup composite number approaching 25 yesterday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yoda, A sounding from that area of 6K CAPE is showing a Td of 79. That's not going to happen. So you can immediately take the CAPE way down. 79 may be too high, but 75+ DPs are possible depending on what happens in the morning and afternoon... SW winds could advect in very humid air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 18z GFS had the highest sup composite number approaching 25 yesterday evening I would expect any one location to have a max dewpoint potential of 70-72. The models love to give unreasonable depictions of surface dewpoints ahead of time. Look for those to come back to reality in subsequent runs. Oh wow...It's happening...I'm turning into not a weenie anymore...where has the old Kmlwx gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I would expect any one location to have a max dewpoint potential of 70-72. The models love to give unreasonable depictions of surface dewpoints ahead of time. Look for those to come back to reality in subsequent runs. Oh wow...It's happening...I'm turning into not a weenie anymore...where has the old Kmlwx gone? DCing has finally done you in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I would expect any one location to have a max dewpoint potential of 70-72. The models love to give unreasonable depictions of surface dewpoints ahead of time. Look for those to come back to reality in subsequent runs. Oh wow...It's happening...I'm turning into not a weenie anymore...where has the old Kmlwx gone? I blame Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 He might even be going beyond Ian...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Even if you correct the DP number from 79 to 74, SBCAPE is still ~4500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Again though - that's SB. MLCAPE will be even lower. Still too many muddy details to buy into Sunday yet. I'm NOT worse than Ian. When I get to Eskimo Joe status let me know and I'll head the other direction I've just started to learn that parameters pretty much mean nothing for us. We will *generally* find a way to screw up a setup. I generally will look at the supercell composite maps to identify days when there *might* be a threat. Then I dive in and look deeper and see if it's a legit threat or something less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Again though - that's SB. MLCAPE will be even lower. Still too many muddy details to buy into Sunday yet. I'm NOT worse than Ian. When I get to Eskimo Joe status let me know and I'll head the other direction I've just started to learn that parameters pretty much mean nothing for us. We will *generally* find a way to screw up a setup. I generally will look at the supercell composite maps to identify days when there *might* be a threat. Then I dive in and look deeper and see if it's a legit threat or something less so. True Juice. Already looking at early morning crapvection/MCS trying to cloud things up. Still early of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, George BM said: True Juice. Already looking at early morning crapvection/MCS trying to cloud things up. Still early of course. And none of that will be cleared up until Saturday PM at the earliest. As usual, lots of wild cards before we can assess the threat level. SPC and LWX seem to be good discussions for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.