Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: guess we need to keep an eye on things for the afternoon/evening. spc has marginal, but hrrrr suggests some cells around later today/tonight. There's been some decent rebound in low level moisture overnight. Td of ~70 seems to be from I-70 south, and it's possible that last night's convection left a couple of boundaries over Loudoun, Fairfax and southern Montgomery counties. You can kinda see that with the difference in surface winds this morning where Leesburg, College Park and Gaithersburg stations have a WSW wind but IAD, DCA, ADW and Manassas are more southerly. Probably argues for iniation and convection from Virginia and points south, but it's luck of the draw I suppose. What really impressed me last night was the rolling thunder...always seems that on still, humid nights thunder carries so much further. Also the mammatus clouds were pretty spectacular around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: There's been some decent rebound in low level moisture overnight. Td of ~70 seems to be from I-70 south, and it's possible that last night's convection left a couple of boundaries over Loudoun, Fairfax and southern Montgomery counties. You can kinda see that with the difference in surface winds this morning where Leesburg, College Park and Gaithersburg stations have a WSW wind but IAD, DCA, ADW and Manassas are more southerly. Probably argues for iniation and convection from Virginia and points south, but it's luck of the draw I suppose. What really impressed me last night was the rolling thunder...always seems that on still, humid nights thunder carries so much further. Also the mammatus clouds were pretty spectacular around sunset. yup -- had a cell miss me north and head into PA but the thunder was long and drawn out. Had some excellent mammatus at sunset too (in case you didn't see, i posted quite a few pics on twitter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Just now, mappy said: yup -- had a cell miss me north and head into PA but the thunder was long and drawn out. Had some excellent mammatus at sunset too (in case you didn't see, i posted quite a few pics on twitter) Yea I saw them. I think I'm bringing the DC split to Baltimore County...watching those two clusters go north and south of Reisterstown was comical. All I got was mosquitoes, distant thunder and stillness while planting tomatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There's been some decent rebound in low level moisture overnight. Td of ~70 seems to be from I-70 south, and it's possible that last night's convection left a couple of boundaries over Loudoun, Fairfax and southern Montgomery counties. You can kinda see that with the difference in surface winds this morning where Leesburg, College Park and Gaithersburg stations have a WSW wind but IAD, DCA, ADW and Manassas are more southerly. Probably argues for iniation and convection from Virginia and points south, but it's luck of the draw I suppose. What really impressed me last night was the rolling thunder...always seems that on still, humid nights thunder carries so much further. Also the mammatus clouds were pretty spectacular around sunset. I didn't see any mammatus clouds, but I got some decent pics of supercell structure of the storm that moved through my area... a few of them are above in this thread. Mappy always gets excellent pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Wow Mattie g that almost looks like a still shot of a tornado. Cool pic. Hoping for another round today before the back-door doldrums this weekend, but it's probably just a Virginia deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I didn't see any mammatus clouds, but I got some decent pics of supercell structure of the storm that moved through my area... a few of them are above in this thread. Mappy always gets excellent pics You may have been too close to the core. a lot of the pics I saw came from those well north of the precipitation portion of the storm, or on the backside as it passed, which makes sense given it was quite the thunderhead over the whole area. I was at the northern edge of the full structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 14z HRRR looks decent for a line to move through around 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 14z HRRR looks decent for a line to move through around 20z Sauce? Work has blocked most weather sites now including NOAA/NWS sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Looks like two boundaries. One to the NW of I-95 moving east (note the more westerly wind component west of that boundary) and the other sitting just east of I-95. Always neat to see these subtle features on radar when Clean Air Mode is enabled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sauce? Work has blocked most weather sites now including NOAA/NWS sites. Medium sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 16z SPC meso has ML Lapse rates around or slightly above 7.0 C/KM across the LWX CWA... maybe some decent hailers once again this afternoon with those storms that can stay discrete long enough before they merge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: Wow Mattie g that almost looks like a still shot of a tornado. Cool pic. Hoping for another round today before the back-door doldrums this weekend, but it's probably just a Virginia deal. Thanks, Nole. My wife called me into her office by saying that it looked like The Nothing from The Neverending Story, and she wasn't too far off! I was really impressed with the movement of the structure. I have a video of it,and it really does look like something was trying to spin up. It wasn't any ordinary scud, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 The 16z HRRR forms a cluster of storms into an MCS near DC which then progresses to the coast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 CU field becoming agitated in Gaithersburg and LWX radar shows initiation in the mountains just north of Hagerstown. Maybe we get a second day of low end boomers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Out of our area but severe for the cell down near Appomatox. So there is some potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: CU field becoming agitated in Gaithersburg and LWX radar shows initiation in the mountains just north of Hagerstown. Maybe we get a second day of low end boomers? low end? Yesterday was pretty high end around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 hrrr has quite a bit of activity for later, but its already wrong. 16z run has a storm over my area by 2pm and nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 That Culpepper cell looks to be the 'big boy' so far. Weak shear really doing a number on the updrafts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 some T&L on those cells in Carroll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That Culpepper cell looks to be the 'big boy' so far. Weak shear really doing a number on the updrafts today. Wasn't it the same yesterday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Wasn't it the same yesterday evening? That always seems to be the case here. Either we lack shear or instability. Looks like the initial updraft on the Culpepper cell fell apart and gusted our, causing two news little cells, one just west of Warrenton and another near Lignum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That always seems to be the case here. Either we lack shear or instability. Looks like the initial updraft on the Culpepper cell fell apart and gusted our, causing two news little cells, one just west of Warrenton and another near Lignum. What I meant was last night we had supercell structures in the same type of shear environment.... wait till the front gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 If my memory is correct, the areas well west of DC where yesterday's supercell formed had 30 to 40 knots of shear, locally the shear was lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 Westminster cell has that flying eagle look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Just now, southmdwatcher said: If my memory is correct, the areas well west of DC where yesterday's supercell formed had 30 to 40 knots of shear, locally the shear was lower. It also was aided by a boundary drifting south from the Carroll County convection. That boundary was the nexus of initiation for the Germantown -> Laytonsville storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: If my memory is correct, the areas well west of DC where yesterday's supercell formed had 30 to 40 knots of shear, locally the shear was lower. 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It also was aided by a boundary drifting south from the Carroll County convection. That boundary was the nexus of initiation for the Germantown -> Laytonsville storm. Ah, my bad then... I thought shear was more like 20kts when the sup moved into N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Parkton jackpot...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, mappy said: Westminster cell has that flying eagle look. If i remember correctly... doesn't that mean a tornado is possible soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
93Blizzard Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Hey guys, I am up at Oregon Ridge Park in Cockeysville watching these storms roll in. Sky looks very dark on the Westminster part of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Parkton jackpot...again. been watching on radar, down to 69 at home with .60 so far. worst def going over my backyard. this is the time where i wish i had backyard webcam going. 2 minutes ago, yoda said: If i remember correctly... doesn't that mean a tornado is possible soon? not necessarily. usually supercell in nature. its gotten a little messy since then. should be a fun drive north though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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