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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said:

Popped up to  77 when the sun came out, almost full sun now in Spotsylvania.....time will tell

Yeah, 73/66, or thereabouts, from many of the reporting stations around here. Also, here's what I mean by clouds having a tough time going vertical... They have the nice cauliflower look on tops but are just struggling to grow. That's why I think we need to get close to 80°, so the low level lapse rates can steepen and help things get going through that dry layer. Dew point should also get a bit higher as the sun evaporates the standing water. Models don't have things going until 4-5 PM, so, like you said, time will tell. 

towercam2.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're primed for a small cluster of cells.  Supercell composite is a 4 across NOVA and there's a few subtle boundaries on radar.  Add to that sun and it's going to be interesting over the next few hours.

Some cells popping down near CHO and Powhatan, VA. They look pretty weak for the time being. NoVA still looks okay for some moderate to strong storms. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're primed for a small cluster of cells.  Supercell composite is a 4 across NOVA and there's a few subtle boundaries on radar.  Add to that sun and it's going to be interesting over the next few hours.

Yeah, showers getting going near Scottsville are moving in to 1500 J/kg CAPE and along the western side of the Bulk Shear axis. Could explode in to that nice cluster you mention north of I-64 and really get going in Orange/Spotsylvania Counties within next 1-1.5 hours. 

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This is only going to be one or two cells, nothing more.  I've only been more bullish of late because the one thing that seems to consistently work in our favor in early spring are sub-1000 mb lows.  They almost always have enough dynamics to clear us out and shove some small multi-cell cluster of convection through the region during prime heating.

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19 minutes ago, WxReese said:

Yeah, showers getting going near Scottsville are moving in to 1500 J/kg CAPE and along the western side of the Bulk Shear axis. Could explode in to that nice cluster you mention north of I-64 and really get going in Orange/Spotsylvania Counties within next 1-1.5 hours. 

Yeah, we are up to 78 with showers in the area in Spotsylvania County.....radar looks interesting west of Richmond, we will see how they develop over the next hour or two

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Yes nice signature on it now. Went up pretty fast too. Went from almost nothing to a 1+ inch hail marker pretty quick on GR2.

If you look at the SPC meso analysis under Surface -> Moisture Convergence you will see it's getting set up over the CAPE boundary and surface moisture convergence.  Probably going to see one or two more try to fire along it too then collapse in about 5 frames.

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