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2017 Severe Thread

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted

GOES 16 doesn't look super optimistic for clearing behind this line. There looks like a small pocket of filtered sunshine but with the cloud movement we may be clouded over for a while unless they start to burn off. None of the short range guidance seems particularly robust with storms this PM. We'll see. But I think we've seen this story line before...

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

GOES 16 doesn't look super optimistic for clearing behind this line. There looks like a small pocket of filtered sunshine but with the cloud movement we may be clouded over for a while unless they start to burn off. None of the short range guidance seems particularly robust with storms this PM. We'll see. But I think we've seen this story line before...

      Agree that simulated radars don't look great, although I would expect the reflectivity signatures to look modest, given the likely mode of low-topped cells.   The soundings actually look unstable enough, but it may be too much dry air in the mid levels that suppresses widespread activity.     Agree with SPC that areas northwest of DC probably have the best shot.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr has some decent looking cells showing up later west of 95. Surface cape 1500-2000 . Surface temps make a surge to the mid 70s as well helping to distabilize hopefully.

 

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

GOES 16 doesn't look super optimistic for clearing behind this line. There looks like a small pocket of filtered sunshine but with the cloud movement we may be clouded over for a while unless they start to burn off. None of the short range guidance seems particularly robust with storms this PM. We'll see. But I think we've seen this story line before...

:huh:

 

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea this looks good for some quick spin ups today.  Sunshine helps as always.  Ian is kinda okay with this on Twitter.

I guess if something forms the environment would be ok, but the mesoscale models really aren't showing much development. Looks like quickly racing showers going from south-to-north. I was having fun tracking the spinups earlier this morning though. ^_^

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
Just now, yoda said:

Better than meh, right @Kmlwx? :lol:

Last post regarding TOR threat today from Ian on Twitter I see was 10 hours ago. Would be curious to see his thoughts as of now. Still looks very cloudy behind this batch of rain that is exiting now. I'm sure somebody will see a mini-supercell today. But I'm unimpressed so far. 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, high risk said:

   I'm in for a couple of severe reports somewhere in northern VA later today, but it will be very isolated.

I'll bite on this one. I'll say one or two severe reports and a couple warnings. Not much.

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
WxWatcher Prediction System™ Washington, DC
1100 AM EST Fri May 05 2017

...THERE IS A CODE ORANGE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple hazards in effect at this time, as the day began with a deluge, and isolated
severe weather. A strong area of low pressure continues to track over the Tennessee Valley,
and will continue its progress north this afternoon. Much of the region is in a dry slot
currently, and we watch the spectacular GOES-16 imagery for clearing potential over the next
few hours. Although we are at a heightened level of alert, it is more for isolated severe rather
than a widespread event. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
Current SPC Mesoanalysis has a sub 1000mb low pressure to our west. At least 40kts of 
effective shear is over much of the region, but instability at this time remains low. 
One of the keys is whether the dry slot we currently sit in will bring fuller clearing,
increasing instability. 

Expecting abundant deep layer shear, but the potential for us remaining socked in by clouds, 
excessive mid level dry air, and lack of destabilization makes me think that much of the coming 
activity will be isolated. For areas that do cash in, low topped supercells with damaging winds
are possible. Important to note that much of the hi-res guidance does not bring particularly eye
popping convection to the region today. Furthering the complexity, areas further west seem to be
more likely to see convection, while eastern areas seem to have better soundings/severe parameters
in place. 

@yoda has been in from the beginning, but the question has been whether we'd get to Step 2. Both @Kmlwx
and @high risk are conditionally IN but lean toward more isolated coverage during the day. That said, 
the expectation is that some areas will in fact see legitimate severe potential, prompting the relatively
rare CODE ORANGE/KMLWX-HIGH RISK/Step 2 upgrade. Although Ian has also expressed interest in today's
potential, it does not warrant a further upgrade at this time. 

..WXW007.. 05/05/2017

Yeah the Ian parameter is a bit higher than usual compared to other parameters atm.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Slight risk dropped and DC removed from marginal. 

Yeah its a weird 1630 OTLK IMO... there is still decent shear, both 0-6km and effective shear look good for sups this afternoon... I don't really see the hail risk that SPC does across the region as ML Lapse Rates aren't that steep, 6.5 C/KM at best

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
Just now, yoda said:

Yeah its a weird 1630 OTLK IMO... there is still decent shear, both 0-6km and effective shear look good for sups this afternoon... I don't really see the hail risk that SPC does across the region as ML Lapse Rates aren't that steep, 6.5 C/KM at best

The shape of the marginal makes sense and is in line with @high risk's thoughts as well as some of the hi-res guidance. WxWatcher007 might want to drop us back to code yellow ;)

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WxReese

WxReese

Posted
Posted

Over 3" of rain reported at many sites up and down the BR from last night. Impressive. Oh, and we're pretty much full sunshine with cumulus popping up all over the place. They are having a tough time going vertical, which is likely due to that very dry air in the mid-levels. Will be interesting to see if we can get near 80° to realize any severe threat locally. (Central VA, not northern. :P ) 

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wawarriors4

wawarriors4

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxReese said:

Over 3" of rain reported at many sites up and down the BR from last night. Impressive. Oh, and we're pretty much full sunshine with cumulus popping up all over the place. They are having a tough time going vertical, which is likely due to that very dry air in the mid-levels. Will be interesting to see if we can get near 80° to realize any severe threat locally. (Central VA, not northern. :P ) 

Popped up to  77 when the sun came out, almost full sun now in Spotsylvania.....time will tell

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