yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wife's in surgery Friday so I'll be away from a PC most of the day...guaranteeing an epic outbreak too. hope everything is okay and its nothing serious... as well as hoping she has a fast recovery as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Nope. I'm the new Ian since he hates all of us now. Meh. The Dark side I sense in you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We'll never get past CODE YODA with you as part of my system lol. Friday is still a ways off I could still bite at some point. For now I won't. I'd rather be meh now and ramp up. Don't want to be like the SPC tossing us into a mod on day 2 immediately cursed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Oh and I'll be devastated if you remove me from the WxWatcher007 Prediction System. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just For Entertainment: Hardcore NAMing lol. Quick, hug the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I wouldn't do that. The system is (mostly) serious. I think it has proven to be pretty accurate in terms of expectation setting. In all fairness though - I've become a much more bearish person on most severe events. Blame like a decade of Ian influence from the days of EasternUSWX. Bearish tends to work more often than not around these parts. I still get giddy at nice parameter maps - but I'm getting less weenie with time I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: In all fairness though - I've become a much more bearish person on most severe events. Blame like a decade of Ian influence from the days of EasternUSWX. Bearish tends to work more often than not around these parts. I still get giddy at nice parameter maps - but I'm getting less weenie with time I think. Perhaps your attitude may change come June 13th. (Inside Joke) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 hours ago, George BM said: Just For Entertainment: Hardcore NAMing lol. Quick, hug the NAM! Is that yellow area where the nam says the squall line will be at 18z fri? I ask because wvec future trak has it going thru here much earlier friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, ldub23 said: Is that yellow area where the nam says the squall line will be at 18z fri? I ask because wvec future trak has it going thru here much earlier friday. No the line will be to the east. This just shows us the parameters should a storm be in that given area. While the most widespread rain and T-storms will be out of here by then, there may be some additional storms that develop to the southwest that may move into the DMV region during the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Some decent soundings across the region from the NAM, gets SBCAPE up to 1000 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 00z NAM NEST really liking the 2100z time period on the soundings jusr SW of KIAD in Northern Fauquier County http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index-mobile.php?type=2017050400|NAMNST|MA|con|stp|45|38.82,-77.85|ml|severe This is after a large squall line moves through around 14z on 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 SPC outlook is quite meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 LWX discussion indicates severe threat is minimal. Well...maybe that bodes well for our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 We do snow in la ninas better than severe seasons around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Smart money is gonna bust or just a few isolated severe tomorrow. Still, it's better than overcast and 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 My money is on the heavy band of rain/thunder in the morning and then scattered showers during the afternoon. Little to no severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Enhanced risk of hatched failure tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 6z NAM nest simulated radar looks interesting for Friday late afternoon in northern VA, but that model tends to destabilize too quickly behind morning convective systems. Instability will be the key tomorrow. We usually fail at getting clearing behind morning systems, so the pessimism is justified, but it does occasionally work out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, high risk said: 6z NAM nest simulated radar looks interesting for Friday late afternoon in northern VA, but that model tends to destabilize too quickly behind morning convective systems. Instability will be the key tomorrow. We usually fail at getting clearing behind morning systems, so the pessimism is justified, but it does occasionally work out here. 12z NAM soundings really hitting the 15z to 21z time period 12z NAM at 18z THUR has KIAD 2000+ SBCAPE... 21z just below 2000 SBCAPE This includes KEZF and KBWI and KDCA... and 0-6km shear is excellent of 40-50 knots 0-3km MLCAPE is in the 200-250 range, which is a little concerning to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 PG County at 21z FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 12z NAM NEST Fairfax County at 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 GFS really nails the I 81 corridor with a precip bomb tomorrow morning. I'd be worried about flooding, this setup is similar to 9/29/15, luckily the ocean is not as warm which means less PWAT. Yeah, there might be that one EF0 that snaps a few branches near La Plata though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Pwats aren't real high but they suggest moderately high moisture content...peaking tomorrow morning or so. I bet locally someone gets smoked with 3"+ qpf Gfs -( 1.5 - 1.8") pwats 3knam- ( 1.5 - 1.8") Tomorrow morning Hrrr Sim radar... Its already showing 3.5" totals in parts of Virginia. From this mornings LWX AFD: Rain is expected to develop on the central VA blue ridge through midday before becoming widespread tonight as strong srly low- level jet develops and pushes a plume of 1.5-1.75 inch precipitable water into the area ahead of strong frontal system. A serly low- level component will enhance rainfall totals against the Blue Ridge mtns where amounts will likely exceed 2 inches with the rest of the area seeing between 1-1.5 inches through Fri afternoon. The 00Z EPS shows up to 80% prob of exceeding 2 inches from Nelson up to Madison county while the deterministic ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS show 4.3, 2.8, and 2.7 inches respectively in that same area. Bulk of the rainfall in that area will fall in a roughly 6-hr period causing some concern for flash flooding. Thunderstorms will also be possible which could also enhance rainfall rates. See hydro discussion below for more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 LWX Afternoon AFD has some, interesting wording : Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 319 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon will track slowly north to western Pennsylvania Friday, then linger over upstate New York through Sunday. Weak high pressure will build into the area late Sunday, and remain through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3pm, deep low pressure is centered over the Mid-South with a warm front extending NE to Lake Erie with surface high pressure centered off southern NE. Deep layer shear essentially increasing over the central Mid-Atlantic through the next 24 hours as the upper level low shifts east across Tennessee. SE surface flow over the area is slowly saturating the area with dewpoints in the low 40s for northern portions of the CWA and mid to upper 40s south. Rain onset on the central VA Blue Ridge should be about now given the 4kft ceiling at KCHO. Went for stratiform precip mode into late tonight in the SE flow. Enhanced rain expected to begin this evening over central VA and move up the Blue Ridge to MD. The 12Z GFS features an inverted trough right up the Blue Ridge which is where rain will be focused. By 8am, expect 2-4 inches on the central VA Blue Ridge with localized 5 inches possible. The Flood Watch is out from Rappahannock Co south to Nelson Co including the central Shen Vly as of now. Flood threat is late tonight with midnight to noon Friday covering the whole threat time. Roughly 1 to 2 inches elsewhere including the Balt/Wash metros. Dry slot overspreads the area from SW to NE through the day Friday. A good conceptual model is low topped mini-supercells on the eastern side of the dry slot with rain farther east and dry to the west. Plenty of deep layer shear. Max temps in the strong south flow Friday mid to upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Tomorrow is a big sleeper flood/severe day, especially if we manage some clearing. Not 'in', but this could be the surprise event of the spring for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Tomorrow is a big sleeper flood/severe day, especially if we manage some clearing. Not 'in', but this could be the surprise event of the spring for us. I hope you are right. Tomorrow morning's commute could be a nightmare. If I didn't have a coworker whose last day is tomorrow I'd call off in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: What happened in 9/15? We had 5" of rain in about 2 hours here in Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Yeah, my concern for flooding along the BR has increased tremendously. Granted, we haven't see the rains locally like they have in SW Virginia, but, if hi-res models are correct, 3-4"+ in a few hours will cause flash floods. Could be a long night for me/early morning for the chief tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 TOR warning down by Petersburg looks good every couple frames. Probably dropping a tornado on and off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Bit of a CC drop is following the tornado warned storm now heading towards the Richmond area. Better look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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