yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 6 hours ago, George BM said: Too soon? Just entertainment...for now. NAMing. Well... there is some SBCAPE Friday afternoon around 500 or so and decent SRH and curved hodographs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Lets no sleep on Friday. After AM rains, decent jet moves overhead. If the drying isn't too adverse above 1km, there could be a pencil thin squall line with good winds. GFS trying to pump out respectable DCAPE from IAD north in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 EJ has been oddly bullish on a lot of the threats so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: EJ has been oddly bullish on a lot of the threats so far this year. Dynamic systems tend to produce ''surprise'' events for us. We saw that on April 7th when 4 tornadoes were confirmed across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dynamic systems tend to produce ''surprise'' events for us. We saw that on April 6th when 4 tornadoes were confirmed across the region. I hope you're right in this case. This weather has been pretty boring overall around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dynamic systems tend to produce ''surprise'' events for us. We saw that on April 6th when 4 tornadoes were confirmed across the region. Decent surface and upper level low placement but the timing sucks for the ribbon of storms. Good dynamics in play though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 NAM and GFS trying to latch onto a sub-1000 low in northern WV now...these systems don't go quietly into the night. Slow the speed down by about 2 - 4 hours and move it 50 miles NW and the whole region wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dynamic systems tend to produce ''surprise'' events for us. We saw that on April 6th when 4 tornadoes were confirmed across the region. It was 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, yoda said: It was 7 My bad...fixed my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I'm actually disappointed in Yoda for not giving us the May 5th 9Z forecast soundings from the NAM. Holy Hodo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, WxReese said: I'm actually disappointed in Yoda for not giving us the May 5th 9Z forecast soundings from the NAM. Holy Hodo! Even up to LNS that's a nice spin. Too bad it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, WxReese said: I'm actually disappointed in Yoda for not giving us the May 5th 9Z forecast soundings from the NAM. Holy Hodo! Positive LI's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Positive LI's And the fact it's saturated through column, s****y lapse rates, no SBCape or DCAPE, minimal MLCAPE, among other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, WxReese said: And the fact it's saturated through column, s****y lapse rates, no SBCape or DCAPE, minimal MLCAPE, among other things. That's why I chose the 21z sounding lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, yoda said: That's why I chose the 21z sounding lol Oh, I know. Even then, those have serious issues, imo. Thermals are better, without a doubt, but there are still a few levels where it goes nearly isothermal. Seeing that is a no-go for me. Then that mid-level dry air that continues in to upper levels. YIKES. Definitely going to be a super small, thread the needle kind of event if you want a decent storm, as Joe said last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxReese said: Oh, I know. Even then, those have serious issues, imo. Thermals are better, without a doubt, but there are still a few levels where it goes nearly isothermal. Seeing that is a no-go for me. Then that mid-level dry air that continues in to upper levels. YIKES. Definitely going to be a super small, thread the needle kind of event if you want a decent storm, as Joe said last page. LWX afternoon AFD agrees with you for that time period: An occluded front associated with the low will pass through the area from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop along this boundary. Shear profiles will be quite strong so any thunderstorms that do develop may become severe. Confidence for severe is still very low at this time because the dry slot should be strong enough to produce a strong inversion and lift along the boundary will be weak. Therefore...confidence in breaking the capping inversion is low at this time. Later shifts will have to monitor this. Warmer and more humid conditions are expected Friday with max temps well into the 70s for most locations. Some areas may even get into the lower 80s if there are enough breaks of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Whether it be timing or instability, we always screw something up in these parts. Unless it's 2008...or 2012 I suppose - we fail at severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Whether it be timing or instability, we always screw something up in these parts. Unless it's 2008...or 2012 I suppose - we fail at severe. Watch Friday afternoon turn out to be a sig svr day since we failed last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Whether it be timing or instability, we always screw something up in these parts. Unless it's 2008...or 2012 I suppose - we fail at severe. Psh! I've already seen hail twice this year and JUST missed out on another hail core. All while being in Charlottesville and not chasing. YOU might fail at severe this year, but we haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Watch Friday afternoon turn out to be a sig svr day since we failed last weekend Just hope that we aren't placed under an enhanced risk at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 This intrigues me. Usually when we have the strong shear, the system is so strong that we get widespread rain/convection which destroys any chances for discrete cells. But all of the widespread rain will be moving out early, and it's pretty clear that we'll dry slot behind it. If we can get any heating Friday afternoon, there should be just enough lift on the front and perhaps with an embedded short wave to generate some discrete cells which would be in an environment with favorable shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 minute ago, George BM said: Just hope that we aren't placed under an enhanced risk at some point. LMAO!!!!!!!!!! Winner! Game over, folks. George won today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: This intrigues me. Usually when we have the strong shear, the system is so strong that we get widespread rain/convection which destroys any chances for discrete cells. But all of the widespread rain will be moving out early, and it's pretty clear that we'll dry slot behind it. If we can get any heating Friday afternoon, there should be just enough lift on the front and perhaps with an embedded short wave to generate some discrete cells which would be in an environment with favorable shear. You caught me at "this intrigues me" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxReese said: Psh! I've already seen hail twice this year and JUST missed out on another hail core. All while being in Charlottesville and not chasing. YOU might fail at severe this year, but we haven't. You have been quite lucky then. We haven't had a good "areawide" event so far this season. Granted - it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: You have been quite lucky then. We haven't had a good "areawide" event so far this season. Granted - it's still early. Secretly, you are "in" Friday afternoon after high risk's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Wife's in surgery Friday so I'll be away from a PC most of the day...guaranteeing an epic outbreak too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Secretly, you are "in" Friday afternoon after high risk's post Nope. I'm the new Ian since he hates all of us now. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Wife's in surgery Friday so I'll be away from a PC most of the day...guaranteeing an epic outbreak too. Hopefully nothing serious. Wish her a fast recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.