mob1 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Not bad for northern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I'm worried the stuff to the SW will gut whatever weak chances we have along 95 to get anything interesting. Our goose was cooked before that stuff was a potential killer. We will get some gusty showers later with perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder. I'm getting this Ian "meh" thing down really well now. And it's like 99% accurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 You can usually tell when an event is running too late to be "big" for us when there's nothing appreciable on the LWX radar at after 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Our goose was cooked before that stuff was a potential killer. We will get some gusty showers later with perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder. I'm getting this Ian "meh" thing down really well now. And it's like 99% accurate! we're like brothers in arms on this event. I like the chances well to our west and northwest, but I don't see much hope at all for svr in the DC/Baltimore area. Instability is modest to begin with, and it will drop off as we go into evening. The hi-res guidance looks consistently unexcited for us, and I can't ignore that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: we're like brothers in arms on this event. I like the chances well to our west and northwest, but I don't see much hope at all for svr in the DC/Baltimore area. Instability is modest to begin with, and it will drop off as we go into evening. The hi-res guidance looks consistently unexcited for us, and I can't ignore that. LWX's AFD seems to disagree with your thinking. Not doubting your view, I just find it in contrast to what LWX stated in their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: LWX's AFD seems to disagree with your thinking. Not doubting your view, I just find it in contrast to what LWX stated in their AFD Except that even in the LWX discussion there's a whole thing about areas "farther east" being more uncertain about severe. Plus, you're assuming that LWX is going to be correct in the first place. When all modeling is running against us you're fighting a losing battle here, Yoda. Somewhere between Cumberland and HGR could still score I think. For YBY and MBY odds are getting lower and lower. We'll still see some gusty showers, though. I wish we'd get an actual severe event for a change. I'm so bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: Except that even in the LWX discussion there's a whole thing about areas "farther east" being more uncertain about severe. Plus, you're assuming that LWX is going to be correct in the first place. When all modeling is running against us you're fighting a losing battle here, Yoda. Somewhere between Cumberland and HGR could still score I think. For YBY and MBY odds are getting lower and lower. We'll still see some gusty showers, though. I wish we'd get an actual severe event for a change. I'm so bored. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 416 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the entire area this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado is possible. The highest confidence for severe thunderstorms is for locations near and west of Interstate 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX's AFD seems to disagree with your thinking. Not doubting your view, I just find it in contrast to what LWX stated in their AFD I would say that they emphasized the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mtns and points west, and I fully agree with that. They also commented that the setup further east had more uncertainty. That's pretty fair, as it's unwise for them to write off the event with us in slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 In general, we don't do well with severe with strong S-SW flow like this. Straight line winds are our bread and butter and the vast majority of wind events come with WSW-WNW mid and upper level flow from what I remember. Not saying we can have severe with strong sw flow if there are discrete cells and such but bigger events plow in from the west and not a ribbon streaming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I just hope we get something fun to track before June... Bob Chill and I want tropical stuff too! COME ON WEATHER. YOU'RE KILLING ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Watching that storm down by Orange... may become severe soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Most of the lightning is embedded in that Port Allegany cell within the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Looks like most MA severe events. All we need is for La Plata to somehow get the one decent storm in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I just hope we get something fun to track before June... Bob Chill and I want tropical stuff too! COME ON WEATHER. YOU'RE KILLING ME The good thing about tropical (just like big snowstorms) is it will definitely happen again. No question about it. The crappy part is not knowing what year or decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 My parents are in central PA. Looks like they're going to have some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Watching that storm down by Orange... may become severe soon Good call, Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Synoptic winds are actually really impressive with the entire system as a whole. LLJ will only strengthen more this evening for areas in EPA. Could be some additional gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I win Severe storm watch till 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Watch up? For gusty showers? If thatSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Meso signal on the cell south of CHO moving NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 You only win if we get some actual severe reports in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Pity watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, mappy said: Watch up? For gusty showers? If that Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes... I am sure that's why SPC and LWX came up with the STW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Yes... I am sure that's why SPC and LWX came up with the STW Hush you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The ground is almost wet. #midatlanticsevere Setting the sprinkler up for the grass seed #midatlanticsevere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 well, the storm reports map is a kick to the groin. Huge totals of wind damage north and another to our south. SPC tried to play "connect the two threat areas" with their watch box, and it didn't work out. again, hi-res modeling continues to make huge strides in assessing threats. The parameters showed a "maybe" threat for our area (strong shear but instability being eliminated by the hour during the evening), but the hi-res guidance was emphatic that we would not see severe. I won't sit here and say that hi-res guidance is always going to nail it, but when multiple models show a consistent signal, it should be given a fair amount of weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 There's an outside chance of a few rumblers on Friday I suppose. Nothing seems to be on the table at this time otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Well, was there widespread death and destruction yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Too soon? Just entertainment...for now. NAMing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 I'm out until I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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