Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Easy to see who the winners could be from visible satellite. Though I'd probably give up any severe for the rest of the year for a nice tropical event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 It's honestly like the 17z HRRR knows exactly where DC is. Line heading NE and then harmlessly goes north of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 New red box coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: New red box coming. Already issued like 5 mins ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Already issued like 5 mins ago Whoops, was in a meeting just saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 IMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Pretty sick line in western PA. Couple of sites gusted 65mph + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I assume this sunshine in Baltimore means we get wedges upon wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: This is mainly from the amount of shear. If you look at CAPE forecast for that time.... L.O.L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I assume this sunshine in Baltimore means we get wedges upon wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 HBurg 81/64 as of 2:20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 That's exactly how I envisioned it. H20 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Take pretty pictures for us coastal folk. Our dews are still in the mid 50s (#NotGonnaHappen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Another little bubble of clearing to the W of Culpeper it seems. Nothing substantial though - still a lot of clouds around the area. Wish we had that pocket of clearing that Harrisburg has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, pazzo83 said: Take pretty pictures for us coastal folk. Our dews are still in the mid 50s (#NotGonnaHappen) You're in the wrong subforum. Central PA, out towards State College is where you should go. We will see a few gusty showers, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: You're in the wrong subforum. Central PA, out towards State College is where you should go. We will see a few gusty showers, maybe. More action in here, and in our sub all we have is Yanksfan salivating about more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Another little bubble of clearing to the W of Culpeper it seems. Nothing substantial though - still a lot of clouds around the area. Wish we had that pocket of clearing that Harrisburg has... Then you have us in Charlottesville.... Basically looks like CAD out there except with a southerly wind. Talk about saturated lower levels to get that orographic lift + strong low-level wind to do that. Who ever gets to the 82-87 degree range has a shot... Otherwise, I'm pretty "meh" on this around here in Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 60% meso to our SW. Probably going to be one of those days where everyone gets a meso or watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md0624.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 60% percent chance of a watch in Western VA per latest MD... includes western LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 60% meso to our SW. Probably going to be one of those days where everyone gets a meso or watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md0624.html Excellent, possible TW too due to red shading in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 First tornado warning of the day for embedded rotation in the line in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Its interesting how I-95 has warmed into the low 80s despite inconsistent sunshine. It's managed to keep dews in the mid to upper 60s for most of us. Impressive warm air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 83/68 and sun in Alexandria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Looks like some storms breaking out southwest of Charlottesville. It's hard to keep upslope tstorms from firing in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Hate that the storm motion is strongly SW-NE. Would have been much more apt to work with a more westerly trajectory with these storms. 17z HRRR and other short-range guidance takes that severe line out in western PA and sends it into the land of Tim Hortons after passing through western NY. Rest of the convection is supposedly coming from WV/VA later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 LWX seems really gung ho in their afternoon AFD: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will pass through the region tonight. High pressure will bring cooler and drier weather during the middle of the week. Low pressure will move into the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Hazardous weather expected across the Mid-Atlantic region late this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. Interested parties should stay tuned into the changing weather through tonight. A strong cold front will continue to approach from the west. A strong pressure gradient between the cold front and high pressure over the Atlantic has allowed for gusty southerly winds. Frequent gusts around 30 to 35 mph will continue through early this evening. The southerly flow has ushered in warm and humid conditions. Dewpoints will remain well into the 60s and max temps will be in the lower 80s across most locations. The warm and humid airmass has lead to some instability. Latest mesoanalysis shows around 500-1000 j/kg of mlcape which should last into this evening. Shear profiles will be quite impressive due to a strengthening jet associated with the cold front. The combination of forcing from the cold front...the instability and the strong shear profiles enhances the threat for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat...but isolated tornadoes and large hail are also possible in thunderstorms that develop during this time. The first round of convection is likely to propagate in from the southwest well ahead of the cold front during the mid to late afternoon hours. Severe thunderstorms are possible during this time...but confidence is low since the strongest forcing from the mid and upper-level jet as well as the cold front should remain well off to the west. Those features will move into the area from the west by early this evening. This is when confidence for severe thunderstorms is highest. The highest instability...shear and forcing should be for locations near and west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains early this evening...best chance between 21 and 02z. Farther east...confidence is a bit lower for severe weather since peak heating will have passed and the outflow may outrun some of the stronger storms since the storm motion will be southwest to northeast. Having that been said...the wind fields will remain quite strong through this evening and there will still be some instability due to the unusually warm and humid airmass in place. Therefore...severe thunderstorms are still possible near and east of Interstate 95 this evening...best chance between 00z and 04z. The wind field should begin to dissipate after 04z...but the cold front will not pass through the entire area until late tonight. Therefore...additional convection is possible overnight mainly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Noticeably drier conditions are expected behind the front toward morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I like how SPC has essentially taken the ENH back to where it was yesterday on the 1730z day 2. What a joke...they should have left it. There was no reason to expand into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Storms are producing damaging winds well ahead of the line. Reports of trees down in State College already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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