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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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There goes the red box to our west...until 23:00

 

Quote

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

 

   Tornado Watch for portions of

 Far western Maryland Panhandle

 Far eastern Ohio

 Western Pennsylvania

 Northern West Virginia

 

   Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until

 700 PM EDT.

 

   Primary threats include,

 A couple tornadoes possible

 Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts  to 75 mph possible

 

 SUMMARY,Line of storms along a cold front will accelerate  east-northeast this afternoon with damaging winds and a couple  tornadoes as the primary hazards.

 

 The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles  either side of a line from 40 miles northwest of Wheeling WV to 25  miles northeast of Latrobe PA. For a complete depiction of the watch  see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

These are days it's probably good that I have no window in my office. Otherwise I'd just be depressed. 

just draw a picture of a cloud and tape it to the wall.  That's what it will be 95% of the time

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

just draw a picture of a cloud and tape it to the wall.  That's what it will be 95% of the time

Except when there's no frontal system or chance for exciting weather. Then it will be 105 degrees and baking sun. 

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mcd0623.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017

   Areas affected...western New York through central Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 011741Z - 011845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storm threat with damaging wind and a few tornadoes
   should continue to expand eastward into western NY and central PA
   this afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be issued soon.

   DISCUSSION...Organized line of storms with embedded mesovortices and
   bowing segments from Lake Erie through extreme eastern OH is moving
   east at around 40 kt. VWP data and special Pittsburg RAOB show very
   favorable wind profiles for embedded supercells with large 0-1 km
   hodographs. Latest visible imagery also show numerous cloud breaks
   which will promote further destabilization of the boundary layer
   with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

We'll be surrounded by tornado watches at this rate :lol:

Clouds coming back in it seems. Not sure we got enough sun - guess we'll see. I hope we can stop with these puny events soon and get some fun severe. 

We won't get an MD before 3

Updated HWO still gung ho for the area along and west of I-95

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

We won't get an MD before 4

And when we do get one I can see it now - 

WATCH UNLIKELY

Storms could produce isolated severe wind gusts but the overall threat is waning due to loss of heating. Watch not anticipated at this time but trends will be monitored. 

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