yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Decent disco above from LWX... could be an interesting 8pm to midnight time period for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Petersburg, WV already up to 81 with decent sun. If we don't get this low level junk out of here soon it's going to be painful to watch a great squall line form in the mountains and then die right at our doorstep. It's one thing to be socked in at 54 with fog and a stiff NE wind, but to get wedged at 75 degrees is another level of torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 25 minutes ago, yoda said: Near Winchester VA (NW VA) What does that mean Yoda. Could you give a little explanation of what I'm supposed to notice in that. I know nothing about severe parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, yoda said: 13z HRRR has a decent line moving in around 01z 0.01" QPF in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 0.01" QPF in DC. Decent in terms of Mid-Atlantic severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 D1 ENH is the new D2 MOD for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 DP has jumped considerably at home. 70/66 vs 61/60 about 2hrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Past few frames of the visible satellite shows this overcast starting to mix out in DA, VA and S. MD. Maybe we squeaks something out. Looks like the temps in SE PA and Delaware have jumped up too so perhaps there's a warm front or something subtle at the surface trying to push further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I hate all of this. Wait, is it winter already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Still a decent low cloud deck where I am. When there are breaks it warms quickly. Very breezy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Gotta think that a later frontal passage does help some. We usually clear out late so stuff from 5pm on will get help from afternoon sun if it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Past few frames of the visible satellite shows this overcast starting to mix out in DA, VA and S. MD. Maybe we squeaks something out. Looks like the temps in SE PA and Delaware have jumped up too so perhaps there's a warm front or something subtle at the surface trying to push further north. I think the front may be running north along the MD/PA border. 15z meso page shows a little bulge in surface pressure west to east. Surface obs also show a clear wind shift from MD into PA, and DP much lower in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 FWIW, 12z GFS disagrees and maintains DPs in the 65-70 range across the area through 06z TUES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 14z HRRR likes a major sup around Winchester to near FDK around 00z... huge UHI swath from that storm as it moves NE... meanwhile 14z HRRR still better IMO for our area as it keeps DPs >64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I haven't looked out a window since getting to work around 9. But we need instability. I did see that HRRR run though, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, yoda said: 14z HRRR likes a major sup around Winchester to near FDK around 00z... huge UHI swath from that storm as it moves NE... meanwhile 14z HRRR still better IMO for our area as it keeps DPs >64 That area has cleared out nicely so it makes sense. I've resigned myself that we aren't going to get a regionwide severe event this spring so tracking the Winchester -> FDK corridor vicariously through radar will have to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That area has cleared out nicely so it makes sense. I've resigned myself that we aren't going to get a regionwide severe event this spring so tracking the Winchester -> FDK corridor vicariously through radar will have to do. Lots of spring left to score something. And then maybe we'll have an exciting derecho season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 SPC mesoanalysis on RAP/SfcOA Fcst really liking the 21z timeframe in N VA/DC/MD with sup composite of 8, large area of SigTor of 1, and eff shear of 40-45 kts... 1500 MLCAPE and 2000 SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Mon May 01 2017 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...West Virginia through western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011559Z - 011800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to undergo a gradual increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon from eastern portions of Ohio through West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threats. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 17Z. DISCUSSION...As of mid day storms have shown some increase in intensity and organization over southeast OH. This activity is developing along a cold front that stretches from the Great Lakes through eastern OH into eastern KY. The downstream warm sector is only weakly capped but marginally unstable. However trends in visible imagery show numerous cloud breaks, and the boundary layer should undergo destabilization next few hours supporting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very strong deep layer winds will persist in this region as a mid-level jet coupled with a strong low-level jet within eastern periphery of the upper low circulation shifts northeast during the day. Latest VWP data show 70 kt surface to 6 km shear and large 0-1 km hodographs. This high shear-low CAPE environment will support organized structures with mixed storm modes including bowing line segments and supercells as activity develops east through the destabilizing warm sector. ..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: SPC mesoanalysis on RAP/SfcOA Fcst really liking the 21z timeframe in N VA/DC/MD with sup composite of 8, large area of SigTor of 1, and eff shear of 40-45 kts... 1500 MLCAPE and 2000 SBCAPE That's from an old run - look at the time stamp. I thought the same thing initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 We just cannot shake this cloud deck. Looks poised to continue based on GOES 16 images too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Looking forward to this one. Last severe risk I got a wall cloud right over my apt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: That's from an old run - look at the time stamp. I thought the same thing initially. No its not... it shows up teh same at 2200... check again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: No its not... it shows up teh same at 2200... check again If you're looking at +6 on that - it says yesterday's date. You can tell it seems weird too because it jumps around from the prior frame. Look at the timestamp down below - unless you and I are not looking at the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: If you're looking at +6 on that - it says yesterday's date. You can tell it seems weird too because it jumps around from the prior frame. Look at the timestamp down below - unless you and I are not looking at the same thing. Weird... I see the date, but I believe that is just an error in itself because the movement of everything looks fluid as you go from +4 and +6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Weird... I see the date, but I believe that is just an error in itself because the movement of everything looks fluid as you go from +4 and +6 It does not look fluid to me at all from +4 to +6. In fact, the parameters match yesterday when the lone supercell went NW of the area before fizzling. Look at the CAPE distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 That I-81 corridor is cooking pretty good. Hagerstown and Harpers Ferry into the low 80s. York and Gettysburg are now well into the upper 70s too. That seems like the zone. Wouldn't shock me if SPC pulls the ENH back west of the cities with the afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Tornado watch coming to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That I-81 corridor is cooking pretty good. Hagerstown and Harpers Ferry into the low 80s. York and Gettysburg are now well into the upper 70s too. That seems like the zone. Wouldn't shock me if SPC pulls the ENH back west of the cities with the afternoon update. Back to Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 higher dews have surged north into PA, so good movement on the front for sure. If only these clouds would get out of here. CAPE up to 1000 in WV panhandled per 16z meso update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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