SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Just went severe warned, this thing worth waiting for around Hancock, on 68? Seems like it's moving too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks nasty on radar. Radarscope has max hail size at 2"... looks to have a decent hail core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Rotation increasing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 18z NAM has some nice curved hodographs tomorrow evening into the night time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Turned hard right, TW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 That turn just took me out of the game to catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: TOR warned now Right turner? Last STW update had it moving NE... TW has it moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Right turner? Last STW update had it moving NE... TW has it moving eastYa it turned hard right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Might be two of em, the dual circulation can be kinda shown on tilt 1, fairly apparent on tilt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 New warning in front of the supercell has enhanced severe wording at the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Would be nice if the supercell could turn more southeast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 Congrats winterwxlvrSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 That was a beautiful HP Supercell. $20 says they confirm a brief tornado off it given the preliminary LSRs. Fun stuff. What's really intriguing is this subtle boundary that's now stalled from Harper's Ferry SE to Layonstville to Annapolis. Could prove a focus for a random nocturnal boomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: Congrats winterwxlvr Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wasn't home. Got here and seen no signs of a storm other than damp pavement. Think most of it was west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 SPC moves everyone I-95 and west into Slight Risk for tomorrow. ENH just to our NW. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC moves everyone I-95 and west into Slight Risk for tomorrow. ENH just to our NW. Interesting. Here's a good reason why: 5 hours ago, andyhb said: Afternoon CAMs for tomorrow are pretty bullish with multiple semi-discrete cells and bowing segments from Upstate NY south into this sub-forum. Shear/trough orientation certainly will be favorable, shouldn't take a lot of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Here's a good reason why: Oh man that's dirty. Gonna be a fun day for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 56 minutes ago, yoda said: Here's a good reason why: Do we have access to the output for those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Problem is the main batch arrives a little late. Looks like it doesn't get here until 3z or later. Nice setup over The Alleghenies though. Garret county and Cannon Valley should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Problem is the main batch arrives a little late. Looks like it doesn't get here until 3z or later. Nice setup over The Alleghenies though. Garret county and Cannon Valley should do well. Consider that severe threats do tend to come in a touch earlier than modeled a lot of times in our region. Not saying this WILL happen this time - but it's common for a 6pm event to turn into more like 3-5pm. I'm in agreement with you but I'll continue watching with one eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Tomorrow looks okay if the timing can work out and if we can destabilize sufficiently. For now it's a bit late for my liking and LWX is talking about mostly cloudy skies during the day - neither of those gives me a particularly robust feeling for tomorrow. NAM nest seems to keep hinting at a good DC area split...of course. SPC outlook seems spot on for the time being. Will say that SREF and even the NAM area okay around like 3z tomorrow evening. If we could speed this up a hair I'd be "in"ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I'm on board with KMLWX (which is appropriate, given the regional severe scale). Parameters are good, but the CAMs seem to hold our part of the line back to the west, perhaps due a veering LLJ. The experimental HRRR extension, though, does show an axis further east along which the storm could fire. it's hard to ignore that unfavorable signal in the CAM. Otherwise, I'd be in for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm on board with KMLWX (which is appropriate, given the regional severe scale). Parameters are good, but the CAMs seem to hold our part of the line back to the west, perhaps due a veering LLJ. The experimental HRRR extension, though, does show an axis further east along which the storm could fire. it's hard to ignore that unfavorable signal in the CAM. Otherwise, I'd be in for sure. Might be a dumb question but where can I view the CAMs? Haven't heard of that acronym until today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Might be a dumb question but where can I view the CAMs? Haven't heard of that acronym until today That's just any hi-res model: NAM nest (3 km), HRRR, NCAR ensemble, Hi-Res Windows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, high risk said: That's just any hi-res model: NAM nest (3 km), HRRR, NCAR ensemble, Hi-Res Windows.... Gotcha thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I'm in for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I'm in for tomorrow I don't think you're ever not in - to be fair As long as a model is spitting out CAPE you're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I don't think you're ever not in - to be fair As long as a model is spitting out CAPE you're in. Lol Nah, I like tomorrow evening. Long curved hodograph and nice 0-6km shear combined with decent SBCAPE suggests to me a stormy evening into night with severe possible... mainly damaging wind but an isolated tornado or two isn't out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 SPC Day 1 Outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: SPC Day 1 Outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Wow. My area went from a marginal to an enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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